Is It Game Over for Value Stocks?

Over the last ten years, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by an average 5.3% per year, and the differential is even greater for shorter time periods. As this differential widened in recent years, the expectation was that value stocks would provide greater protection in a market downturn as the market should theoretically place a greater emphasis on quality and stability, attributes typically found in value stocks. However, as the market rapidly fell into bear market territory in February and has whipsawed back and forth since doing so, growth stocks have continued to outperform value stocks, a trend which has been surprising to investors. At this point, those who have maintained a value bias in their portfolios are undoubtedly frustrated as the paradigm has failed to play out through this market correction and has likely left market participants debating the merits of value stocks altogether.

To help answer these questions, we have enlisted two of our senior research analysts, Samantha Grant (“SG”) and Jessica Noviskis (“JN”), to discuss the value vs. growth dynamics we have seen over the last decade, and to assess the future performance outlooks for each over the next market cycle. In the following conversation, Jessica covers the topics from a growth perspective while Samantha tackles the questions from the value side. Collectively, their answers should help investors decide if it is finally time to abandon value stocks, or if this is just another long-dated cycle in the equity market.

Read > Is It Game Over for Value Stocks?

 

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Kweku Obed Speaking at NCPERS Chief Officers Summit 6/13

On Thursday, June 13, Kweku Obed, CFA, CAIA will be speaking at the NCPERS 2019 Chief Officers Summit: Where Leaders Engage in Chicago.

The Chief Officers Summit is designed to prepare CEOs and CIOs to drive their organizations forward in the face of constantly evolving opportunities and challenges. Kweku will be participating in a “Pros & Cons of Portfolio Complexity” panel with several other consulting and asset management professionals and plan sponsors. Additionally, on June 14, Kweku will be a panelist on the session entitled, “Getting More Value from Your Investment Consultants.”

Founded in 1941, the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems (NCPERS) is the principal trade association working to promote and protect pensions by focusing on advocacy, research, and education for the benefit of public sector pension stakeholders.

For additional information, please refer to the NCPERS event page.

The Slow Road to Recovery: Phase Four Relief Stimulus in Context

The $484 billion latest coronavirus relief stimulus package passed through the Senate on Tuesday (April 21st), passed through the House on Thursday (April 23rd), and was signed into law by President Trump on Friday (April 24th). Here we assess this most recent relief package along with the rest of the fiscal and monetary stimulus put forth so far as well as other key issues that pertain to the slow road to recovery from the pandemic.

Read > The Slow Road to Recovery: Phase Four Relief Stimulus in Context

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

What Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Mean for Private Equity Investments?

Given the significant amount of volatility in the public markets and uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, this newsletter provides an update and outlook for private market investors.

This newsletter covers the valuation process used by private equity and debt funds, the expected impact on first quarter valuations for private market funds, how portfolios are positioned to handle the economic slowdown, what GPs are doing in this environment to protect and position their portfolio companies for the slowdown, and Marquette Associates’ outlook for the remainder of the year.

Read > What Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Mean for Private Equity Investments?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

Q1 2020 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the first quarter’s performance with a special focus looking forward from the coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic and market impacts.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors. For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Light at the End of the Tunnel?

While the coronavirus pandemic is far from over, signs of improvement ranging from infections peaking to progress in the search for a cure seem to be arising on a daily basis lately. The following newsletter summarizes some of these key positive indicators and offers some guidance for portfolios in the months to come.

Read > Light at the End of the Tunnel?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

How Will Private Real Estate Be Impacted by Coronavirus and the Market Downturn?

As we have seen in past market downturns, almost all risk assets feel some degree of pain as correlations trend towards one and returns drift downwards in seemingly perfect harmony. In the case of private real estate, headlines have been sparse to this point but it is only a matter of time until the repercussions are felt, particularly for the sectors hardest hit by the outbreak.

This newsletter details potential near-term and long-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic on private real estate, with a look at historical performance as well as some of the unique features of this particular downturn.

Read > How Will Private Real Estate Be Impacted by Coronavirus and the Market Downturn?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

Defined Contribution Guidance: Coronavirus Update

March certainly came in like a lion (though whether it came out like a lamb is debatable). The continued spread of the coronavirus pandemic led to sharp and steep sell-offs in both the bond and equity markets as investors fled to cash. An array of fiscal and monetary stimulus aimed at staving off a global recession followed suit.

With so many looming unknowns, what can plan sponsors do to best support defined contribution plan participants? This newsletter provides an overview of recent developments in response to the coronavirus and how plan sponsors can maintain fiduciary best practices and continue to help participants act prudently in the days that lie ahead.

Read > Defined Contribution Guidance: Coronavirus Update

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

Signs of a Market Bottom?

In just a matter of weeks, U.S. equities went from all-time highs to bear market correction territory. As of March 20th, the S&P 500 had a drawdown of -31.9% from its February 19th high. Following the steep sell-off, equities subsequently rallied the week of March 23rd, logging weekly gains that were among their best in history. With equities having officially fallen into correction territory then subsequently appearing to show signs of stabilization and fiscal/monetary stimulus poised to (theoretically) cushion the impact of COVID-19, investors are left to wonder if the worst is over.

However, identifying market bottoms is a difficult endeavor. Every bear market is unique and this one is no different. Based on the severity of economic contraction thus far, it is likely that we are headed for — or possibly already in — a recession. Notably, though, not all bear markets coincide with a recession and not all recessions coincide with a bear market. Given that a recession is looming if not already here, we examined the last 40 years of data when bear markets coincided with recessions to see if we can identify signs of a bottom. Over the past 40 years, there were four such periods: 1973–1975, 1981–1982, 2000–2001, and 2007–2009. In the following newsletter, we review four categories of data over these time periods: technical, valuation, economic, and COVID-19 to see if we can identify consistent indicators of a market bottom.

Read > Signs of a Market Bottom?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

With March officially in the books, the following is a brief summary of what has transpired in the capital markets since our update early last week. As expected, the coronavirus has exploded across the U.S. and continued its spread across Europe as well. At the time of writing, the number of cases is approaching 1 million worldwide and has exceeded 200,000 here in the United States. Stocks finished their worst quarter ever on Tuesday and volatility continues to haunt the markets. While the worst may still not yet be behind us, we hope that the growing number of shelter in place edicts and more consistent social distancing may help to stem the coronavirus outbreak across the world. Please note that all return data in the following discussion utilizes the quarter end date of March 31st, 2020.

Read > April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.