The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

This weekend’s clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the OPEC meeting launched an oil price war that saw prices plummet over 20% with oil now trading at approximately $35 per barrel. This is salt on the wound for the global markets as coronavirus cases roughly tripled last week in the U.S., Europe, and the rest of Asia outside of China. Somewhat predictably, the S&P 500 suffered its biggest drop yesterday (March 9th) since 2008, dropping 7.6%; this was the 19th largest drop in its history.

This newsletter updates investors on yesterday’s market turbulence and in particular provides a projected outlook for core bonds’ expected returns in 2020. While the path forward from yesterday is unknown, the analysis included should hopefully provide investors some guidance on potential paths and returns for the remainder of the year.

Read > The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Marquette Featured in Diverse Manager Search Article

On September 11, Marquette investment consultant Kweku Obed was quoted in a FundFire article on diverse managers and consultants adopting an NFL-style “Rooney Rule” for manager searches to help promote diversity in institutional investment portfolios. The NFL’s “Rooney Rule” is named after Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney, and requires teams to interview minority candidates for coaching positions. Marquette will include at least one diversity candidate in every traditional equity and fixed income manager search that meets client investment objectives, minimum investment and vehicle requirements.

Marquette has worked with diverse managers for decades, with increasing focus over the past 10 years. Last year alone, Marquette clients invested over $500 million with diverse managers that were included in searches. Since 2012, Marquette has also requested that all investment managers disclose ownership composition as part of the manager search process. This information is included in Marquette manager search materials for clients.

“What we wanted to do is just reconfirm to the marketplace what we’ve already been doing and just a way to highlight Marquette’s role,” Kweku said. “Unfortunately, in the industry, there’s this notion that you’re giving up quality and ability to do well if you go with a diverse manager. With diverse managers, we’re looking at the best in class and we believe they have the ability to do just as well as other managers. As fiduciaries it’s our job to hit target rates of returns and do it in a risk-controlled manner.”

Approaches to including diverse managers in the search process vary widely among investment consulting firms. In contrast to another firm mentioned in the article, Marquette does not give bonuses to consultants based on interaction with diverse managers. The firm also does not have a separate diverse manager search committee.

“If you ask anyone in the industry and any manager, all they are looking to do is level the playing field,” Kweku said, making the point that a separate committee implies that these managers are not being viewed equally. Marquette’s investment committee reviews and compares managers relative to other managers. A list of the largest diverse investment managers for various asset classes is also published on a regular basis to keep Marquette consultants and clients informed of diversity opportunities. The Marquette research team will not only look at quant-heavy factors like returns, track records and standard deviation, but also the manager’s philosophy. Marquette has an open-door policy with diverse managers and hosts diverse manager events throughout the year, with the next one taking place either at the end of this year or early 2019.

FundFire has featured Marquette expertise on diverse and emerging manager search in several articles recently, including an article in May on an emerging managers merger and an August 2017 article on the increasing use of emerging managers by endowments and foundations.

The July 2017 Investment Perspectives newsletter, Don’t You Know, We’re Talking About An Evolution?, contributed to the institutional investor community conversation on the measurable benefits of incorporating diverse investment firms by exploring solutions to top challenges.

To read the article, visit the FundFire website (subscription required).

March 2: Coronavirus Update and Portfolio Guidance

Last week was a painful one for the equity markets as fears about the coronavirus drove investors out of stocks and markets into correction territory. The following newsletter summarizes last week’s developments and provides specific commentary on what to watch for across the major asset classes that constitute investor portfolios.

Read > March 2: Coronavirus Update and Portfolio Guidance

As always, please reach out to your consultant or our research team for more details about any of the information presented in this update. For more Marquette coverage on coronavirus, reference our previous newsletter (January 28) and Chart of the Week posts (February 13, February 21, February 26).

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2018 Investment Symposium

Friday, September 28, 2018
8:00 AM – 2:00 PM

Marquette clients – Please join us for our 2018 Investment Symposium to discuss the current market environment, emerging investment themes and investment stewardship challenges in the year ahead. In addition to our two keynotes, six flash talks will brief attendees on popular topics and encourage timely conversations with our investment consultants.

Agenda
8:00 AM
Registration Open/Breakfast

8:45 AM
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Brian Wrubel, President & CEO

9:00 AM
Opening Keynote

John V. Miller, CFA
Head of Nuveen Municipals at Nuveen Asset Management

10:00 AM
Break

10:15 AM
Flash Talks: Session 1

The Financial Crisis: A Decade Later
Nat Kellogg, CFA, Director of Manager Search, Managing Partner

Evolving Private Market Landscape: The Institutional Shift from Public to Private Markets
Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Private Equity

The Impact of Technological Innovation on the U.S. Equity Market and the Value Growth Continuum
Samantha Grant, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

11:00 AM
Break

11:15 AM
Flash Talks: Session 2

Getting “A” Share of the Chinese Market 
David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities

Deciphering the Bond Markets: How Much Duration and Credit Risk Should I Take?
Ben Mohr, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Fixed Income

Market Impact of Evolving U.S. Policies 
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Director of Research, Managing Partner

12:00 PM
Keynote Luncheon

Richard H. Thaler
2017 Recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics

2:00 PM
Adjourn

Union League Club
65 W Jackson Blvd
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Tel: (312) 427-7800
Discounted guest rooms available through 8/28
Business casual attire required. More information about their dress code can be found here.

Richard H. Thaler to Deliver 2018 Investment Symposium Luncheon Keynote

Richard H. Thaler 

Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business

Richard H. Thaler is the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics. Thaler studies behavioral economics and finance as well as the psychology of decision-making which lies in the gap between economics and psychology. He investigates the implications of relaxing the standard economic assumption that everyone in the economy is rational and selfish, instead entertaining the possibility that some of the agents in the economy are sometimes human. Thaler is the director of the Center for Decision Research, and is the co-director (with Robert Shiller) of the Behavioral Economics Project at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Thaler is the co-author (with Cass R. Sunstein) of the global best seller Nudge (2008) in which the concepts of behavioral economics are used to tackle many of society’s major problems. In 2015 he published Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. He has authored or edited four other books: Quasi-Rational Economics, The Winner’s Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life, and Advances in Behavioral Finance (editor) Volumes I and II. He has published numerous articles in prominent journals such as the American Economics Review, the Journal of Finance and the Journal of Political Economy.

Thaler is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Fellow of the American Finance Association and the Econometrics Society, and in 2015 served as the President of the American Economic Association. Before joining the University of Chicago faculty in 1995 Thaler taught at the University of Rochester and Cornell as well as visiting stints at The University of British Columbia, the Sloan School of Management at MIT, the Russell Sage Foundation and the Center for Advanced Study in Behavioral Sciences at Stanford.

Originally from New Jersey, Thaler attended Case Western Reserve University where he received a bachelor’s degree in 1967. Soon after, he attended the University of Rochester where he received a master’s degree in 1970 and a PhD in 1974. He joined the Chicago Booth faculty in 1995.

John V. Miller, CFA to Deliver 2018 Investment Symposium Opening Keynote

John V. Miller, CFA

Head of Nuveen Municipals at Nuveen Asset Management

John leads the municipals fixed income strategic direction and investment perspectives for Nuveen. He also manages several municipal bond strategies and closed-end funds.

John is a trusted public voice in discussing key issues and trends within the municipal market. He is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg Television and Fox Business News. His perspective is often sought out by leading industry media such as The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg News and Morningstar.

Before being named the co-head of fixed income in 2011, he was chief investment officer for the firm’s municipal bond team starting in 2007. He was named a managing director and head of portfolio management for Nuveen Asset Management in 2006. John became a portfolio manager in 2000 after starting at the firm as a municipal credit analyst in 1996. He began working in the financial industry at a private account management firm in 1993.

 

The Future of Investing: Sustainability and ESG Integration

With 2020 underway, sustainable investing continues to be a trending topic, although the concept of incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics into an investment thesis is not new. ESG integration is returns-focused and incorporates long-term sustainability factors into the investment research process to identify companies with higher return potential.

In this white paper, we examine the current ESG landscape, including the various movements that have preceded ESG integration, recent strides by American corporations, fiduciary guidance, and the growing response by investment managers to meet investor demand, especially in reporting and performance measurement. We also present our approach to incorporating ESG into our manager evaluation process and the best practices our team looks for when performing due diligence for ESG-mandated strategies.

Read > The Future of Investing: Sustainability and ESG Integration

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Will the Spread of Coronavirus Drive a Risk-Off Market?

Global markets have come under pressure as the number of coronavirus cases grows. Through January 27th, the S&P 500 is down 3% from its mid-January peak when the U.S.-China phase one trade deal was signed. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 1.85% to 1.61% over this same period, as bond spreads widened and the dollar strengthened.

This newsletter summarizes recent market activity and potential implications of the spread of coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China. For long-term investors, this outbreak is likely nothing but noise; however, future news about the coronavirus could impact markets in the short-term.

Download PDF > Will the Spread of Coronavirus Drive a Risk-Off Market?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2020 Market Preview

2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns.  As we enter 2020, there are a litany of questions facing global markets ranging from the U.S. election to trade disputes to global monetary policy, all of which will undoubtedly influence investment returns. The following newsletters examine the primary asset classes we cover for our clients, with in-depth analysis of last year’s performance and more importantly, trends, themes, and projections to watch for in 2020.

We hope these materials can assist you and your committees as you plan for the coming year, and please feel free to reach out to any of us should you have further questions about the articles. We have also produced a 2020 Market Preview video if you would like to hear a high-level summary of the market previews. Here’s to another positive year from the markets in 2020!

U.S. Economy: Signs of Slowing?
by Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Partner, Director of Research

Fixed Income: The New Roaring Twenties — Will It Be Different This Time?
by Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income

U.S. Equities: Climbing the Wall of Worry
by Robert Britenbach, CFA, CIPM Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

Non-U.S. Equities: Big Expectations, Little Wiggle Room
by David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities
and Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA, Research Analyst

Real Estate: What Will Happen Next?
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Infrastructure: The Energy Revolution Is Driving the Future of Infrastructure
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Hedge Funds: Rising Geopolitical Risks and a U.S. Election Could Lead to Tempered Expectations
by Joe McGuane, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Alternatives

Private Equity: As Asset Class Grows, Continues to Deliver for Investors
by Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Director of Private Equity

Private Credit: An Asset Class Coming Into Its Own
by Brett Graffy, CAIA, Research Analyst

To read the above files in one combined document > 2020 Market Preview

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2020 Market Preview Video

This video coincides with our annual Market Preview newsletters and includes a recap of 2019’s performance and what investors can expect heading into 2020. 2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns. As we enter 2020, there are a litany of questions facing global markets ranging from the U.S. election to trade disputes to global monetary policy, all of which will undoubtedly influence investment returns.

This video is part of our Market Insights series, a quarterly presentation designed to brief clients on the market as soon as possible after quarterly market data becomes available. Members of our research team discuss the overall U.S. economy, along with fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equity, hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.

For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.