2020 Market Preview

2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns.  As we enter 2020, there are a litany of questions facing global markets ranging from the U.S. election to trade disputes to global monetary policy, all of which will undoubtedly influence investment returns. The following newsletters examine the primary asset classes we cover for our clients, with in-depth analysis of last year’s performance and more importantly, trends, themes, and projections to watch for in 2020.

We hope these materials can assist you and your committees as you plan for the coming year, and please feel free to reach out to any of us should you have further questions about the articles. We have also produced a 2020 Market Preview video if you would like to hear a high-level summary of the market previews. Here’s to another positive year from the markets in 2020!

U.S. Economy: Signs of Slowing?
by Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Partner, Director of Research

Fixed Income: The New Roaring Twenties — Will It Be Different This Time?
by Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income

U.S. Equities: Climbing the Wall of Worry
by Robert Britenbach, CFA, CIPM Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

Non-U.S. Equities: Big Expectations, Little Wiggle Room
by David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities
and Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA, Research Analyst

Real Estate: What Will Happen Next?
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Infrastructure: The Energy Revolution Is Driving the Future of Infrastructure
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Hedge Funds: Rising Geopolitical Risks and a U.S. Election Could Lead to Tempered Expectations
by Joe McGuane, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Alternatives

Private Equity: As Asset Class Grows, Continues to Deliver for Investors
by Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Director of Private Equity

Private Credit: An Asset Class Coming Into Its Own
by Brett Graffy, CAIA, Research Analyst

To read the above files in one combined document > 2020 Market Preview

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Jeremy Zirin Speaking at NAREIM Capital Raising & Investor Relations Meeting 12/5

On Wednesday, December 5, Jeremy Zirin, CAIA will be speaking at the 2018 National Association of Real Estate Investment Manager’s (NAREIM) Capital Raising & Investor Relations Meeting in Chicago, Illinois.

As a senior research analyst in real estate, Jeremy will be participating in an interactive discussion regarding the challenges facing institutional investors as they deploy allocations and construct portfolios in the commercial real estate market. The discussion seeks to illustrate the panelists’ outlook for the real estate asset class and how each responds to the need to diversify investor bases.

For more information, please visit the event page.

2020 Market Preview Video

This video coincides with our annual Market Preview newsletters and includes a recap of 2019’s performance and what investors can expect heading into 2020. 2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns. As we enter 2020, there are a litany of questions facing global markets ranging from the U.S. election to trade disputes to global monetary policy, all of which will undoubtedly influence investment returns.

This video is part of our Market Insights series, a quarterly presentation designed to brief clients on the market as soon as possible after quarterly market data becomes available. Members of our research team discuss the overall U.S. economy, along with fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equity, hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.

For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Nat Kellogg Speaking at SBAI Institutional Investor Roundtable 11/28

On Wednesday, November 28, Nat Kellogg, CFA, will be speaking at the Standards Board for Alternative Investments (SBAI) Institutional Investor Roundtable in Chicago.

Nat will be joining the “Allocator Panel,” featuring senior representatives from various investment managers, funds, and consultants. The discussion will focus on two main topics:

Allocation priorities

  • Alpha vs. beta
  • Search for Alpha – where next?
  • Alignment and fees – what is the state of play?

Governance of pension funds – outsourcing versus internalising – an eternal circle?

  • Where to draw the line?
  • Benchmarking of internal capabilities
  • How much experience to retain?
  • Does size matter?
  • Implications for alternatives allocation

The SBAI brings together managers, investors and other industry parties to tackle topical issues through practical case studies and interactive discussions, with the belief that responsible standards of practice strengthen the alternative investment industry for the benefit of both investors and managers.

For more information, please visit the SBAI events page.

Marquette Featured in Diverse Manager Search Article

On September 11, Marquette investment consultant Kweku Obed was quoted in a FundFire article on diverse managers and consultants adopting an NFL-style “Rooney Rule” for manager searches to help promote diversity in institutional investment portfolios. The NFL’s “Rooney Rule” is named after Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney, and requires teams to interview minority candidates for coaching positions. Marquette will include at least one diversity candidate in every traditional equity and fixed income manager search that meets client investment objectives, minimum investment and vehicle requirements.

Marquette has worked with diverse managers for decades, with increasing focus over the past 10 years. Last year alone, Marquette clients invested over $500 million with diverse managers that were included in searches. Since 2012, Marquette has also requested that all investment managers disclose ownership composition as part of the manager search process. This information is included in Marquette manager search materials for clients.

“What we wanted to do is just reconfirm to the marketplace what we’ve already been doing and just a way to highlight Marquette’s role,” Kweku said. “Unfortunately, in the industry, there’s this notion that you’re giving up quality and ability to do well if you go with a diverse manager. With diverse managers, we’re looking at the best in class and we believe they have the ability to do just as well as other managers. As fiduciaries it’s our job to hit target rates of returns and do it in a risk-controlled manner.”

Approaches to including diverse managers in the search process vary widely among investment consulting firms. In contrast to another firm mentioned in the article, Marquette does not give bonuses to consultants based on interaction with diverse managers. The firm also does not have a separate diverse manager search committee.

“If you ask anyone in the industry and any manager, all they are looking to do is level the playing field,” Kweku said, making the point that a separate committee implies that these managers are not being viewed equally. Marquette’s investment committee reviews and compares managers relative to other managers. A list of the largest diverse investment managers for various asset classes is also published on a regular basis to keep Marquette consultants and clients informed of diversity opportunities. The Marquette research team will not only look at quant-heavy factors like returns, track records and standard deviation, but also the manager’s philosophy. Marquette has an open-door policy with diverse managers and hosts diverse manager events throughout the year, with the next one taking place either at the end of this year or early 2019.

FundFire has featured Marquette expertise on diverse and emerging manager search in several articles recently, including an article in May on an emerging managers merger and an August 2017 article on the increasing use of emerging managers by endowments and foundations.

The July 2017 Investment Perspectives newsletter, Don’t You Know, We’re Talking About An Evolution?, contributed to the institutional investor community conversation on the measurable benefits of incorporating diverse investment firms by exploring solutions to top challenges.

To read the article, visit the FundFire website (subscription required).

Illinois Pension Consolidation Act

On December 18th, 2019, Governor Pritzker officially signed Public Act 101-0610 into law, which then took effect on January 1st, 2020. A large portion of this new law (the “Pension Consolidation Act”) requires all 649 Illinois suburban and downstate police and firefighters pension funds — previously established as prescribed by Articles 3 and 4, respectively, of the Illinois Pension Code — to consolidate their assets into two new statewide funds: one for all police pension funds and one for all firefighter pension funds.

This legislative update covers the background and reasoning for consolidating these public safety pension funds, lays out the established timeline for the consolidation process, and details the ongoing responsibilities, requirements, and structure of both current local boards and the transition and permanent boards for the newly established funds.

Read > Illinois Pension Consolidation Act Legislative Update

While there is still some uncertainty regarding the implementation and timing of the transition, Marquette will continue to monitor new announcements closely and provide regular updates to our Article 3 and 4 pension fund clients as details emerge. Also included in this update are several key points we consider of utmost importance as the transition boards begin implementing the Act, including governance, infrastructure, personnel, a transition plan, and implementation. We are prepared to work with the consolidated funds, auditors, and any other necessary service providers to ensure our clients experience a transition that is as seamless as possible.

For further information or questions, please contact your consultant.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Information contained herein should not be construed as legal advice.

2018 Investment Symposium

Friday, September 28, 2018
8:00 AM – 2:00 PM

Marquette clients – Please join us for our 2018 Investment Symposium to discuss the current market environment, emerging investment themes and investment stewardship challenges in the year ahead. In addition to our two keynotes, six flash talks will brief attendees on popular topics and encourage timely conversations with our investment consultants.

Agenda
8:00 AM
Registration Open/Breakfast

8:45 AM
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Brian Wrubel, President & CEO

9:00 AM
Opening Keynote

John V. Miller, CFA
Head of Nuveen Municipals at Nuveen Asset Management

10:00 AM
Break

10:15 AM
Flash Talks: Session 1

The Financial Crisis: A Decade Later
Nat Kellogg, CFA, Director of Manager Search, Managing Partner

Evolving Private Market Landscape: The Institutional Shift from Public to Private Markets
Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Private Equity

The Impact of Technological Innovation on the U.S. Equity Market and the Value Growth Continuum
Samantha Grant, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

11:00 AM
Break

11:15 AM
Flash Talks: Session 2

Getting “A” Share of the Chinese Market 
David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities

Deciphering the Bond Markets: How Much Duration and Credit Risk Should I Take?
Ben Mohr, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Fixed Income

Market Impact of Evolving U.S. Policies 
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Director of Research, Managing Partner

12:00 PM
Keynote Luncheon

Richard H. Thaler
2017 Recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics

2:00 PM
Adjourn

Union League Club
65 W Jackson Blvd
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Tel: (312) 427-7800
Discounted guest rooms available through 8/28
Business casual attire required. More information about their dress code can be found here.

Institutional Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

As speculated in Marquette’s recent  4Q 2019 DC Legislative Update, Congress passed sweeping retirement savings reform by tacking the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (“SECURE Act”) onto its year-end spending bills. On December 17th and 19th, the House and Senate respectively passed the SECURE Act (“the Act”) with the goal of enhancing retirement readiness for Americans. This update outlines a summary of the Act’s provisions impacting our defined contribution (DC) and defined benefit (DB) plan clients.

Read > Institutional Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

As always, your consultant will be able to address any specific questions you may have regarding these changes. A similar summary targeting individual investors can be found here.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Richard H. Thaler to Deliver 2018 Investment Symposium Luncheon Keynote

Richard H. Thaler 

Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business

Richard H. Thaler is the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics. Thaler studies behavioral economics and finance as well as the psychology of decision-making which lies in the gap between economics and psychology. He investigates the implications of relaxing the standard economic assumption that everyone in the economy is rational and selfish, instead entertaining the possibility that some of the agents in the economy are sometimes human. Thaler is the director of the Center for Decision Research, and is the co-director (with Robert Shiller) of the Behavioral Economics Project at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Thaler is the co-author (with Cass R. Sunstein) of the global best seller Nudge (2008) in which the concepts of behavioral economics are used to tackle many of society’s major problems. In 2015 he published Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. He has authored or edited four other books: Quasi-Rational Economics, The Winner’s Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life, and Advances in Behavioral Finance (editor) Volumes I and II. He has published numerous articles in prominent journals such as the American Economics Review, the Journal of Finance and the Journal of Political Economy.

Thaler is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Fellow of the American Finance Association and the Econometrics Society, and in 2015 served as the President of the American Economic Association. Before joining the University of Chicago faculty in 1995 Thaler taught at the University of Rochester and Cornell as well as visiting stints at The University of British Columbia, the Sloan School of Management at MIT, the Russell Sage Foundation and the Center for Advanced Study in Behavioral Sciences at Stanford.

Originally from New Jersey, Thaler attended Case Western Reserve University where he received a bachelor’s degree in 1967. Soon after, he attended the University of Rochester where he received a master’s degree in 1970 and a PhD in 1974. He joined the Chicago Booth faculty in 1995.