The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

This weekend’s clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the OPEC meeting launched an oil price war that saw prices plummet over 20% with oil now trading at approximately $35 per barrel. This is salt on the wound for the global markets as coronavirus cases roughly tripled last week in the U.S., Europe, and the rest of Asia outside of China. Somewhat predictably, the S&P 500 suffered its biggest drop yesterday (March 9th) since 2008, dropping 7.6%; this was the 19th largest drop in its history.

This newsletter updates investors on yesterday’s market turbulence and in particular provides a projected outlook for core bonds’ expected returns in 2020. While the path forward from yesterday is unknown, the analysis included should hopefully provide investors some guidance on potential paths and returns for the remainder of the year.

Read > The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

March 2: Coronavirus Update and Portfolio Guidance

Last week was a painful one for the equity markets as fears about the coronavirus drove investors out of stocks and markets into correction territory. The following newsletter summarizes last week’s developments and provides specific commentary on what to watch for across the major asset classes that constitute investor portfolios.

Read > March 2: Coronavirus Update and Portfolio Guidance

As always, please reach out to your consultant or our research team for more details about any of the information presented in this update. For more Marquette coverage on coronavirus, reference our previous newsletter (January 28) and Chart of the Week posts (February 13, February 21, February 26).

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Future of Investing: Sustainability and ESG Integration

With 2020 underway, sustainable investing continues to be a trending topic, although the concept of incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics into an investment thesis is not new. ESG integration is returns-focused and incorporates long-term sustainability factors into the investment research process to identify companies with higher return potential.

In this white paper, we examine the current ESG landscape, including the various movements that have preceded ESG integration, recent strides by American corporations, fiduciary guidance, and the growing response by investment managers to meet investor demand, especially in reporting and performance measurement. We also present our approach to incorporating ESG into our manager evaluation process and the best practices our team looks for when performing due diligence for ESG-mandated strategies.

Read > The Future of Investing: Sustainability and ESG Integration

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Dave Smith Speaking at 2018 529 Conference 9/24

On Monday, September 24th, Dave Smith, CFA, will be speaking at the “529 Essentials Seminar” preceding the fifth annual 529 Conference, “Education Financial Planning: Required Insight for the 529 Industry.

The presentation, “Structuring & Evaluating the Investment Line-Up”, will cover topics including plan structure in philosophy and in practice; defining key terms and differentiating factors; investment type and management style trends; and the impact of fees, new asset classes and other trends on selection.

The one-day pre-conference seminar will unpack the mechanics of 529 college savings plans. The session is designed to provide a clearer understanding of the ever-evolving tax, regulatory, governance, financial aid, investment and operational implications driving the market today.

For more information, please visit the 529 Conference event page.

Will the Spread of Coronavirus Drive a Risk-Off Market?

Global markets have come under pressure as the number of coronavirus cases grows. Through January 27th, the S&P 500 is down 3% from its mid-January peak when the U.S.-China phase one trade deal was signed. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 1.85% to 1.61% over this same period, as bond spreads widened and the dollar strengthened.

This newsletter summarizes recent market activity and potential implications of the spread of coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China. For long-term investors, this outbreak is likely nothing but noise; however, future news about the coronavirus could impact markets in the short-term.

Download PDF > Will the Spread of Coronavirus Drive a Risk-Off Market?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2020 Market Preview

2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns.  As we enter 2020, there are a litany of questions facing global markets ranging from the U.S. election to trade disputes to global monetary policy, all of which will undoubtedly influence investment returns. The following newsletters examine the primary asset classes we cover for our clients, with in-depth analysis of last year’s performance and more importantly, trends, themes, and projections to watch for in 2020.

We hope these materials can assist you and your committees as you plan for the coming year, and please feel free to reach out to any of us should you have further questions about the articles. We have also produced a 2020 Market Preview video if you would like to hear a high-level summary of the market previews. Here’s to another positive year from the markets in 2020!

U.S. Economy: Signs of Slowing?
by Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Partner, Director of Research

Fixed Income: The New Roaring Twenties — Will It Be Different This Time?
by Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income

U.S. Equities: Climbing the Wall of Worry
by Robert Britenbach, CFA, CIPM Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

Non-U.S. Equities: Big Expectations, Little Wiggle Room
by David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities
and Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA, Research Analyst

Real Estate: What Will Happen Next?
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Infrastructure: The Energy Revolution Is Driving the Future of Infrastructure
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Hedge Funds: Rising Geopolitical Risks and a U.S. Election Could Lead to Tempered Expectations
by Joe McGuane, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Alternatives

Private Equity: As Asset Class Grows, Continues to Deliver for Investors
by Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Director of Private Equity

Private Credit: An Asset Class Coming Into Its Own
by Brett Graffy, CAIA, Research Analyst

To read the above files in one combined document > 2020 Market Preview

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2020 Market Preview Video

This video coincides with our annual Market Preview newsletters and includes a recap of 2019’s performance and what investors can expect heading into 2020. 2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns. As we enter 2020, there are a litany of questions facing global markets ranging from the U.S. election to trade disputes to global monetary policy, all of which will undoubtedly influence investment returns.

This video is part of our Market Insights series, a quarterly presentation designed to brief clients on the market as soon as possible after quarterly market data becomes available. Members of our research team discuss the overall U.S. economy, along with fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equity, hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.

For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Illinois Pension Consolidation Act

On December 18th, 2019, Governor Pritzker officially signed Public Act 101-0610 into law, which then took effect on January 1st, 2020. A large portion of this new law (the “Pension Consolidation Act”) requires all 649 Illinois suburban and downstate police and firefighters pension funds — previously established as prescribed by Articles 3 and 4, respectively, of the Illinois Pension Code — to consolidate their assets into two new statewide funds: one for all police pension funds and one for all firefighter pension funds.

This legislative update covers the background and reasoning for consolidating these public safety pension funds, lays out the established timeline for the consolidation process, and details the ongoing responsibilities, requirements, and structure of both current local boards and the transition and permanent boards for the newly established funds.

Read > Illinois Pension Consolidation Act Legislative Update

While there is still some uncertainty regarding the implementation and timing of the transition, Marquette will continue to monitor new announcements closely and provide regular updates to our Article 3 and 4 pension fund clients as details emerge. Also included in this update are several key points we consider of utmost importance as the transition boards begin implementing the Act, including governance, infrastructure, personnel, a transition plan, and implementation. We are prepared to work with the consolidated funds, auditors, and any other necessary service providers to ensure our clients experience a transition that is as seamless as possible.

For further information or questions, please contact your consultant.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Information contained herein should not be construed as legal advice.

Institutional Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

As speculated in Marquette’s recent  4Q 2019 DC Legislative Update, Congress passed sweeping retirement savings reform by tacking the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (“SECURE Act”) onto its year-end spending bills. On December 17th and 19th, the House and Senate respectively passed the SECURE Act (“the Act”) with the goal of enhancing retirement readiness for Americans. This update outlines a summary of the Act’s provisions impacting our defined contribution (DC) and defined benefit (DB) plan clients.

Read > Institutional Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

As always, your consultant will be able to address any specific questions you may have regarding these changes. A similar summary targeting individual investors can be found here.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Individual Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

In June of 2019, we published our first paper on the SECURE Act, “Securing Retirement through the SECURE Act,” after it passed the House and have since been monitoring the evolution of the legislation. On December 17th and 19th, the House and Senate respectively passed the SECURE Act (“the Act”) with the goal of enhancing retirement readiness for Americans. The Act will undoubtedly impact both retirement plans and individuals in many ways. This update will specifically focus on the pieces of the legislation impacting individuals.

Read> Individual Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

As always, your consultant will be able to address any specific questions you may have regarding these changes. A summary of the SECURE Act’s provisions impacting our defined contribution and defined benefit plan clients is outlined in a separate legislative update here.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.