Policy Uncertainty Blurs the Outlook

July 17, 2025 | Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research

As we enter the second half of the year, Liberation Day-induced market volatility seems like a distant memory with the S&P hitting another all-time high on July 10^th and non-U.S. stocks significantly outpacing their U.S. counterparts through June 30^th. Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law by President Trump on July 4^th with varying expectations on its impact to growth but a consensus view that it will push the deficit higher.

In this edition:

• Tariff and policy uncertainty
• Risk factors and market indicators
• Equity market drivers
• Currency and regional trends
• What to watch in the second half

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