Author: cvernon

The Infamous September

When it comes to timing the stock market, one oft-heard saying is “Sell in May and go away,” which “warns” investors to try to avoid the underperforming summer months and re-enter the market sometime in October. While this might be little more than an anomaly, it is true that over the last 40 years these months do tend to have weaker performance. Most notable in underperformance is September, the only month to average a loss in the S&P 500.

Given the volatility and global growth trends we’ve seen recently, a disappointing September would hardly be surprising. Pairing this historical weakness with the results of last year’s fourth quarter — when equities were down 13.5% — it is understandable that many investors are nervous about the remainder of the year. Fortunately, performance has been positive with equities up 2.6% month-to-date at the time of writing. But what’s far more important is that despite some concerning headlines, the S&P 500 is still up over 21% year-to-date. Even if we do see some losses this month and 4Q disappoints, investors are still on track for a profitable year in their domestic stock portfolio.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Catastrophe Bonds

Institutional investors are constantly searching for additional asset classes that may help diversify a portfolio and enhance returns. Catastrophe (“cat”) bonds may be such an asset class that could help diversify a portfolio’s interest rate, credit/equity and currency risk by providing non-correlating natural event risk. Cat bonds are typically issued by insurance companies that pool property and casualty policies. They pay coupons to the bondholder using the policy premiums received. When a natural event occurs — such as a hurricane or an earthquake — part of the principal of a cat bond may be used to pay the insurance claims on the pool of policies. In other words, the investor is paid to assume a part of the risk associated with natural events. Historically, cat bonds average 5% to 10% return annually.

This paper discusses the benefits of cat bonds and the mechanics of how they work, along with their market size. The characteristics of cat bonds and the types of cat bond strategies will also be examined. The paper will provide details about cat bonds’ merits and risks to help investors make informed decisions about whether to consider this asset class. It will conclude with a discussion of recent and long-term performance.

Read > Catastrophe Bonds White Paper

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

Plummeting Pound Rebounds as PM Johnson is Thwarted

There has been a flurry of updates on the Brexit saga over the last three weeks, starting with the leak of the Yellowhammer doomsday report on August 18th to Wednesday’s stunning news of British Members of Parliament (MPs) successfully pressing forward on a measure to foil a no-deal Brexit. Throughout that time ­— and since the Referendum — the pound sterling has taken varying degrees of “pounding” based on these Brexit updates, and this week was no different.

In today’s chart, we show the intraday moves of the USD/GBP spot rate over the last three days. On Tuesday, September 3rd, MPs exerted their legislative muscle and debated the merits of a bill designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31st. In a sharp early sell-off that morning, the pound nosedived below the October 2016 “Flash Crash” dip and hit a 34-year low. The slump came amid growing fears that Britain could crash out of the European Union sans divorce agreement and the possibility of a snap general election. By that evening, however, MPs had voted 328 to 301 to seize control and presented a formal debate on the proposed legislation, delivering Prime Minister Johnson’s first legislative defeat in the House of Commons and causing the pound to rebound from the intraday low. And we saw the pound continue to rise in conjunction with PM Johnson’s second loss on the following day — MPs voted 329 to 300 in favor of the proposed legislative block on a no-deal Brexit. While it is unknown whether the pound will continue to climb, the MPs’ steps towards ensuring that the worst-case Brexit scenario would be avoided appeared to placate currency traders and the market.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Investing 101 Video Series

Our Investing 101 video series covers the fundamentals of investing. This series aims to create a knowledge base for trustees, staff, and other investors of the key terms and concepts that they encounter most frequently, with guidance provided by several of Marquette’s research analysts and directors.

The series covers:

Marquette encourages open dialogue with our consultants and research team. For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Low Volatility Takes a Bite out of FAANG

FAANG stocks have underperformed the broad market over the past year, a stark change from their previous multi-year run of outperformance. More recently, this high-flying group has been negatively affected by a slowing global economy, the U.S.-China trade war, and antitrust investigations. On the other hand, low volatility equity strategies — heavily allocated to defensive sectors of the market such as utilities, REITs, and consumer staples — are benefiting from concern that we are late cycle, slowing global economic conditions, and falling interest rates. As investors seek to mitigate downside risk within equities, low volatility investments have been the recent winner.

This week’s Chart of the Week shows the growth of $100 for the S&P 500 Low Volatility index, the S&P 500 index, and the NYSE FANG+ index over the past year. As of August 23rd, the S&P 500 Low Volatility index had a trailing one-year return of +15.3%. Over this same time frame, the S&P 500 index returned a meager +1.7% while the NYSE FANG+ index fell by -12.4%.

The basic premise of low volatility investing is winning by not losing. A focus on lower beta, lower volatility stocks provides downside protection and helps with the power of compounding over time. The low volatility trade isn’t entirely a free lunch since popularity in this investment style has driven up valuations. Across defensive sectors, valuations are well above their long-term historical averages and trade at a premium to the broad market. As of July month-end, the S&P 500 Low Volatility index had a trailing P/E ratio of 23x compared to 21x for the S&P 500 index. While valuation levels for low volatility indices are certainly elevated and may have an impact on future price appreciation, their lower beta nature should act to mitigate downside risk relative to the broad market.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Good Old Days

It may be tempting for some investors to “time” the market in order to enhance returns in times of market volatility or to avoid exposure on days of anticipated losses in the equity market. However, this strategy can prove detrimental to a portfolio that compounds over time.

This week’s Chart of the Week shows the cumulative effect of missing out on the 5 best days and 10 best days of return for the S&P 500. If $1 were invested in October of 1988 and simply left alone, the investor would have $20.88 as of August 22nd, 2019. However, if out of a sample of 7,771 days, solely the 5 and 10 best days of return were missed as a result of not being invested in the S&P 500, the investor would have $13.95 and $10.50, respectively. Investors may be tempted to time the market in the short-term but making a wrong timing decision can drastically impact returns as shown in the chart above. It is nearly impossible to predict how the market will react on any given day and attempting to move in and out of the market incurs trading costs as well as the risk of losing out on a few crucial days of return. Compounding returns also widen the gap between the lines over time and exponentially affects the dollar value of a portfolio. This illustrates the importance of staying invested, especially through periods of high volatility when large swings in returns are more common.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

All is Not Lost for 2019

Given this week’s volatility driven by (brief) yield curve inversion, the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, disappointing economic data from Germany, and overall growing pessimism about future growth, investors’ growing concerns about portfolio returns are entirely justified. However, despite this week’s volatility and mostly negative news, almost all asset classes have delivered positive returns for the year, with the great majority of U.S. equity strategies up double digits. Furthermore, most fixed income strategies have profited from falling interest rates, as shown by positive returns from investment grade as well as below investment grade sectors. And for all the negative news out of the Eurozone and China, international equities — as represented by the ACWI ex-US index — are still up more than 6% through August 15th. While the rest of the year is likely to feature elevated volatility and lower returns, barring a major market correction most portfolios should remain in positive territory, despite what has transpired the first half of August. If nothing else, we encourage investors to take a long-term view of the markets and not overreact in times of market stress, as stepping back and taking a longer-term view of the markets indicates that 2019 has been a profitable year to date.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Yield Curve Inverts: Time to Hunker Down?

This morning, the key range of the U.S. Treasury yield curve that is viewed as the bellwether of recessions — the 2-year versus the 10-year — inverted. The 10-year yield fell to 1.61%, below the 2-year’s 1.62%, as of the time of writing. The yield curve serves as a key indicator of market sentiment on future interest rates and therefore the future state of our economy. An upward sloping curve signifies a growing economy, while an inverted curve portends a contracting economy.

This newsletter details what investors should be aware of in light of the inversion, including the possibility of a recession, effects on the equity market, and other current events that may contribute to uncertainty and volatility.

Read > The Yield Curve Inverts: Time to Hunker Down?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina

On Sunday, August 11th, Argentina’s current president since 2015, Mauricio Macri, lost the Argentine presidential primary election by a much greater margin than expected. This development was a surprise to the markets that sent shockwaves through emerging markets asset classes. Macri’s loss seriously reduces his chances of reelection on October 27th, as this primary election was generally viewed as a referendum on Macri’s austerity measures and reforms. Macri is seeking reelection on a platform that commits to continued austerity if he were to be reelected.

In this newsletter, we explore the impact these developments have had on the markets, potential outcomes, and what to watch for going forward.

Read > Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Lower for Longer, or Negative Forever?

With Trump’s surprise announcement of additional tariffs at the beginning of this month — a day after the Fed’s rate cut — the yield curve continued its free fall and flattening that began in earnest at the beginning of 4Q18’s dislocation and the gradual heating-up of the tariff war. Sunday’s Argentine Presidential primary election surprise, where pro-free markets incumbent Macri lost to populist duo Fernandez/Kirchner by a wider than expected margin, further exacerbated that trend.

In this newsletter, we examine the driving forces behind this persistent yield curve decline and flattening and potential remedies to the “lower for longer” norm.

Read > Lower for Longer, or Negative Forever?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.