Author: cvernon

What to Expect from Global Equities?

Through the first half of the year, most U.S. and non-U.S. equity indices have produced double-digit returns. For example, the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI ex U.S. indices are up 18.5% and 13.6%, respectively. On the surface, these large returns appear to indicate a healthy equity market. However, when we dig deeper, we find that multiple expansion ­— rather than fundamentals — has been the key driver of year-to-date returns. In fact, earnings revisions have been negative across the globe as analysts have downgraded their 2019 EPS estimates.

Why have equity returns been so strong during a tepid earnings environment? First, we think markets were likely oversold in 2018, leading to a bounceback this year. Second, central banks throughout the world have become more accommodative, including possible rate cuts in the U.S. and tax cuts in China. This shift in monetary policy has boosted equity investor optimism. Looking to the rest of the year, we have a cautious view on equity returns given the poor earnings momentum. Additionally, macro events like the Brexit and U.S.-China trade relations serve as potential potholes in the second half. Collectively, these risks suggest more modest equity returns in the second half of 2019.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

When Will the SOFRing End?

Global authorities such as the SEC, Federal Reserve, European Commission and European Central Bank are currently transitioning the market’s use of LIBOR as a base rate for floating-rate securities such as bank loans, CLOs and private credit towards the use of the current front runner as a replacement: SOFR, which stands for the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.

This newsletter explains what a base rate is and how it is used in investing, why LIBOR is being transitioned to SOFR and the key differences between the two, and when the change is expected to take effect.

Read > When Will the SOFRing End?

For more coverage on LIBOR, please see our Bank Loans Position Paper and recent Chart of the Week, The Sixth Fed Hike and Rising LIBOR.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Evolution of Private Credit

With roughly $48B of U.S. private credit fundraising taking place in 2018 ­­— surpassing 2008 levels of $42B — private credit has established itself as an up-and-coming leader within the alternative space. By 2023, private credit is estimated to reach $1.4T in AUM, becoming the 3rd largest alternative asset class. This kind of success has brought with it increased competition, robust inflows, rising pools of dry powder and an inflow of managers within the space, up from 31 managers in 2010 to more than 130 in 2018.

The growth of available capital in the private credit market has been substantial, but the growing demand for debt has kept the opportunity largely intact. Direct lending, which is more prevalent in the middle-market, has rapidly developed into a meaningful source of debt capital within the private equity (“PE”) ecosystem.

Since the global financial crisis, the leveraged loan market has become less accessible to middle-market companies as banks have generally stopped lending in this part of the market. The volume of leveraged loans held by banks reached roughly 30% in 2008 and has since declined sharply to less than 10% today. Coupled with a 48% drop in the total number of U.S. banks from 1998 to 2018, demand for direct lending has increased as U.S. banks have substantially withdrawn from the market.

In their relentless search for yield, institutional investors stepped up in a meaningful way vis-à-vis direct lenders, and while highly competitive right now, direct lending brings PE-style returns with heightened levels of downside protection. Because private credit investments can be approached in a defensive, risk-controlled way, private credit is especially well suited for late-cycle conditions, and with its higher coupons, robust cash flows, and lower risk profile, we can expect private credit to continue to grow at an accelerated pace and become a consistent component of an increasing number of institutional investors’ portfolios.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Russell Indices Incorporate “Uber” Exciting IPOs

It’s that time of year again! The end of June brings longer summer days and the annual Russell index reconstitution. The Russell 1000’s constituent rebalancing this month also brings the inclusion of a few recent high-profile IPOs, most notably Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Beyond Meat. This means all investors holding a passive allocation to the Russell 1000 will soon hold shares in these companies.

The Russell’s methodology weights constituent allocations based on the free-float market cap, which only includes shares readily available to trade. We show here estimated weightings of these newly IPO’d constituents alongside some well-known peers of similar weights. Notably, Microsoft has overtaken Apple as the largest index constituent. Uber, while likely the largest IPO of 2019, is still dwarfed by these two behemoths and will ultimately not become a massive component of the index’s roughly 1,000 constituents. Similarly, while the top few constituents seem to hold outsized portions of the index, the index’s performance is not dictated solely by them as they are significantly outnumbered by over 900 names which contribute to performance.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Are Americans Swimming in Debt Again?

The eleven-year recovery since the 2008 financial crisis has been good for most Americans, allowing many to pay off debt and build a solid footing again. However, as this market cycle is getting a bit long in the tooth, investors are rightly concerned about areas of fundamental deterioration and whether the next recession might be lurking around the corner.

This week’s chart looks at the total amount of consumer debt in the U.S. The chart shows the aggregate amount of mortgage debt, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, credit card debt and student loans among U.S. households. We can see that in total, the amount reached roughly $13 trillion at the peak of the 2008 crisis, fell to a trough of about $11 trillion in 2013, but has now surpassed 2008 levels to about $14 trillion today, with especially high growth in the total student loan amount.

While nominal numbers can be informative, finance is the study of ratios, which can be even more insightful. If we divide the total nominal consumer debt amount by the U.S. population at key dates, we determine that total consumer debt was $24.93 per person in 2003, reaching a peak of $41.68 per person in 2008, dropping to a trough of $35.27 per person in 2013, but again surpassing 2008 and reaching an all-time peak of $41.77 per person today. Should we be concerned? While per person levels of consumer debt are concerning, consumer debt to GDP levels would tell a different story. Dividing the same total nominal consumer debt as shown in the chart by nominal U.S. GDP, we have 0.6x in 2003, 0.9x in 2008, 0.7x in 2013 and back to 0.6x today.

The two leverage ratios suggest opposing conclusions. While the per person leverage ratio is showing that we are worse off today than in 2008, the GDP leverage ratio is showing that we are just fine, with a consumer debt-to-GDP ratio that is nowhere near 2008 and more akin to 2003. Bottom line, this is telling us that our GDP is growing at a faster rate than our population, due at least in part to advances in technology that have raised productivity levels. However, the per person leverage ratio is showing that each American on average now has more debt than ever before, even more than 2008 levels, which bears watching for its potential impact on overall growth in the coming years.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Bank Loans Position Paper

Bank loans represent a key strategic asset class for most institutional investors’ fixed income portfolios. Some of the critical benefits of bank loans include yield that is typically greater than that of core bonds, a floating rate and therefore very little interest rate risk, and a senior secured level in the debt capital structure of issuers such that default risk is minimized and recovery rates are maximized. This position paper covers the history of the asset class as well as some unique characteristics that make it a vital part of many institutional investors’ portfolios. We will also examine its historical returns and correlations with other asset classes, as well as its risks ranging from credit to liquidity risk and interest risk to reinvestment risk. We will conclude with an assessment of its recent valuations as well as how to access this asset class.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

When the Experts Are Wrong

Since the end of October, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell more than 1% and as of writing stands at 2.12%. The drop resulted in the yield curve inverting between the 3-month and 10-year maturities, and the 2-year yield is getting dangerously close to also surpassing the 10-year. This dramatic decline and inversion made investors nervous that a recession was on the horizon and caught most economists off-guard. In both 4Q and 1Q the 10-year yield ended lower than the average forecast from the Bloomberg consensus by about 0.4%. 2Q is on track to be even worse as the yield may fall below the forecasted low from the survey.

Towards the end of 2018, most believed the 10-year would rise thanks to continued growth and further rate hikes by the Fed. However, volatility and ongoing concerns about tariffs have pushed investors into safe-haven assets. This was further fueled by the weaker than expected job reports and most now believe the Fed will likely cut interest rates at least once before the end of the year. As a result, some institutions revised their forecasts for the remainder of 2019, going as low as 1.75% for the 10-year. That said, there is still a great deal of uncertainty and rates could just as easily rebound should we get more positive economic data, if the Fed chooses not to decrease rates, or if there is a resolution to the trade conflict. Overall, this serves as a reminder to investors that timing the market is an imperfect science and even experts can miss the mark by a wide margin. We continue to encourage clients to stick to their investment policies, invest for the long-term, and follow a disciplined rebalancing routine.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Tank on Empty? Proposed Tariffs on Mexico Will Heavily Impact the Auto Industry

On May 30th, President Trump announced via Twitter that the United States will impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports starting on June 10th. The White House added that this percentage could quickly escalate to 25% if Mexico fails to “reduce the number of illegal aliens” crossing border lines. This week’s chart displays the potential impact of these tariffs on the auto industry in both the United States and Mexico.

In the first quarter of 2019, the United States’ imports of motor vehicles and parts totaled $93.3B (bar chart). Out of this total, the United States imported a whopping $32.8B from Mexico, almost a third of all the United States’ imports in motor vehicles and parts. After Trump’s tweet, both the S&P 500 Index and the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector fell sharply.

Looking at specific auto stocks (line chart), General Motors (GM) will likely struggle dealing with this tariff as GM is Mexico’s largest automaker and has 14 manufacturing plants located throughout the country. Ford could also struggle: approximately 10% of Ford’s vehicles sold in the United States last year were imported from Mexico. Overall, these tariffs are likely to raise auto prices and reduce profits of automakers, which is bad news for investors and consumers.

Print PDF > Tank on Empty? Proposed Tariffs on Mexico Will Heavily Impact the Auto Industry

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Sell in May and Go Away?

Global equity markets declined in May on a flurry of geopolitical news. As tensions persist, stocks are grasping to sustain their former rocket-like pace.

This newsletter details the recent trade and tariff announcements, their impact on the markets, and a look at what to expect in the remaining months of 2019.

Read > Sell in May and Go Away?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Securing Retirement Through the SECURE Act

On May 23rd, with overwhelming bipartisan support, the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act (SECURE Act) passed in the House with a 417–3 vote. The bill is the first major retirement legislation since 2006 and has 29 total changes or new provisions.

The bill will impact most workers from part-time employees to small business owners to more tenured employees. In this newsletter we have outlined some of the major changes outlined in the SECURE Act.

Download PDF > Securing Retirement Through the SECURE Act

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.