The Impact of Trump’s Victory on Capital Markets

November 2016

To the surprise of pollsters, analysts, and much of the American public, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump trampled predictions by winning the presidential election in stunning fashion.

The long-term impact of Trump’s presidency on financial markets is impossible to predict at this point, given the amount of uncertainty around his expected policies. However, the short-term dynamics surrounding his election win are starting to emerge, and we share with you what we are seeing and hearing in the market in this newsletter.

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BREXIT: The Results and What’s Next

June 2016

On June 23rd, the United Kingdom (UK) shocked markets with its vote to leave the European Union (EU). The Remain vote lost to the Leave vote, 48.1% to 51.9%, with a strong turnout throughout the UK. Younger voters sided with the Remain camp by a wide margin, while older voters supported the Leave camp (Exhibit 2). In the weeks leading up to the referendum, global equity/credit markets and the British pound experienced positive price movement in anticipation of a Remain verdict. Using polling information and odds makers as indicators, investors were caught off guard at the Brexit result, leading to dramatic losses for risk assets on June 24th.

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2016 Market Preview

January 2016

Similar to previous years, we offer our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2016 is off to a volatile start with equity markets down significantly, oil dropping below $30, the Fed poised to further increase interest rates, and fears of a China slowdown rippling through the markets. However, other headlines will emerge as the year goes on, and it is critical to understand how asset classes will react to each new development and what such reactions will mean to investors. The following articles contain insightful analysis and key themes to monitor over the coming year, themes which will underlie the actual performance of the asset classes covered.

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Why is Portfolio Diversification Important?

This week’s Chart of the Week shows what is commonly referred to as a “Periodic Table of Investment Returns”. It is a table showing historic calendar year returns for various asset classes ranked in order of performance from best to worst. One of the key takeaways from this table is that 2015 was a particularly challenging year for investment returns.

This week’s Chart of the Week shows what is commonly referred to as a “Periodic Table of Investment Returns.” It is a table showing historic calendar year returns for various asset classes ranked in order of performance from best to worst. One of the key takeaways from this table is that 2015 was a particularly challenging year for investment returns. With the exception of real estate, there were no major asset classes that posted double-digit gains in 2015, and except for emerging market equities, there were no major asset classes that posted double-digit losses for the year. In an environment where most asset classes posted low single-digit returns for the year (either positive or negative), it was extremely difficult for diversified portfolios to achieve their target rates of return in 2015.

The other key takeaway from this table is the importance of diversification within a portfolio. As seen in the table, there has been very little consistency in the best and worst performing asset class from year to year. In fact, since 2007 just about every asset class that was the best performing asset class for a year was also the worst performing asset class for a year during this time frame. Just because an asset class performs well in one year it will not necessarily perform well the next, and just because an asset class performs poorly in one year it will not necessarily perform poorly again the next. This illustrates the importance of adhering to strategic asset allocation targets and rebalancing portfolios back to targets over time.

1Represents YTD return as of 9/30/15.  4Q 2015 returns are not yet available.
2Represents YTD return as of 11/30/15.  December 2015 returns are not yet available.

Asset Class Benchmark
Large Cap Russell 1000
Mid Cap Russell Mid Cap
Small Cap Russell 2000
Core Fixed Barclays US Agg Bond
High Yield Barclays US Corporate High Yield
Bank Loans Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan
Developed Lg Cap MSCI EAFE
Developed Sm Cap MSCI EAFE Small Cap
Emerging Markets MSCI EM
Real Estate NFI
Hedge Funds HFRI FOF: Diversified Index
Private Equity Cambridge All PE

2015 Investment Symposium Briefing

This video summarizes Marquette’s 2015 Investment Symposium on October 16, 2015, including the opening sessions and flash talks, which covered the current market environment, emerging investment themes and investment stewardship challenges in the year ahead. The new flash talk session format is designed to brief attendees on more popular topics in less time and encourage timely conversations with investment consultants.

Flash talk sessions discussed: