Life During Wartime: Assessing the Market Impact of the Russia/Ukraine Conflict

Recent days have seen an escalation of political tensions in Eastern Europe, and on February 24th, Russian forces began conducting large-scale military operations in Ukraine. These actions have drawn widespread condemnation from the international community, with NATO repositioning troops along its eastern flank and both the United States and European Union announcing intentions to impose sanctions on a variety of Russian financial institutions. The conflict has also threatened the stability of global markets, particularly those areas of the world economy that are most sensitive to energy and the performance of emerging market countries. The aim of this newsletter is to assess the ramifications of Russian actions vis-à-vis the broad market and determine the potential implications of further escalation of the conflict going forward, including:

  • Equity index performance
  • Index exposure to Russia and Ukraine
  • Commodity market expectations
  • Central bank policy and inflation impacts
  • Historical impact of similar exogenous shocks on equities

Read > Life During Wartime: Assessing the Market Impact of the Russia/Ukraine Conflict

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

New Year, New Plan: Resolutions to Support Your Participants in 2022

As 2022 kicks off and resolutions for the new year are finalized, we have decided to compile a list of suggestions for defined contribution plan committees that can serve to support their participants as annual reviews and quarterly meetings begin.

In this newsletter, we review:

  • Automatic features in plan design including auto-enrollment default rates and auto-escalation cap rates
  • Participant communication campaigns
    ⋅ Online account set-up
    ⋅ Beneficiary elections
    ⋅ Participant rollovers

Read > New Year, New Plan: Resolutions to Support Your Participants in 2022

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Don’t Forget About Those Old 401(k) Accounts!

According to a recent study conducted by Capitalize, $1.35 trillion worth of assets were held in forgotten 401(k) accounts as of May 31st, 2021. This figure is based on estimates of 24.3 million retirement accounts with an average balance of $55,400 per account. Based on this study, it is evident that millions of participants are missing out on additional retirement savings each year their old accounts are left behind with previous employer plans, since holding multiple accounts often leads to investors incurring higher fees. To that point, Capitalize estimates that an individual could experience up to $700,000 in foregone retirement savings as a result of forgotten 401(k) accounts. As 2021 draws to a close, plans sponsors should look to begin the new year by helping employees consolidate retirement accounts, which could lead to cost savings and the accumulation of plan assets, by utilizing the following tactics:

  • Confirm participant data, including email and mailing addresses, is up to date to ensure communications will be received
  • Collaborate with the relationship manager of your retirement plan recordkeeper to develop a targeted participant communication strategy (email, hard copy mail, or onsite visits) that highlights the benefits of consolidating retirement accounts from previous employers
  • Ensure communications clearly explain the process for rolling over outside retirement assets
    · Paperwork required to effectuate rollovers can be confusing to many participants, however, the majority of recordkeepers employ support teams available to assist individuals with transfers
    · The phone numbers and email addresses of these support teams should be clearly identified in communications to participants
  • To increase the chances of success when it comes to participant rollovers, communication campaigns should be continued throughout the entire year

Finally, technological developments and the reporting capabilities of retirement plan recordkeepers will allow plan sponsors to measure the effectiveness of these campaigns. By the end of 2022, sponsors should review results related to the number of rollovers completed, the amount of assets gained, and the extent to which employees were actively engaged with the topic during the year. This may help plans delineate future goals and better understand the most effective ways to communicate to participants.

If this is of interest to your plan, please contact your Marquette consultant for additional information.

Print PDF > Don’t Forget About Those Old 401(k) Accounts!

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

In Context Video: Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead Forever?

In this video, the authors of our recent white paper discuss the 60/40 model portfolio — a long-time approach to portfolio construction that generally consists of a 60% allocation to equities and a 40% allocation to fixed income. From the decades of success the 60/40 portfolio has experienced (and why) to skepticism about its future viability in light of the current low interest rate and expensive equity market environment and how organizations may still be able to meet their return targets, we seek to answer if the 60/40 portfolio’s efficiency is a thing of the past.

Marquette’s In Context series brings our latest research to your screen, with discussion led by the authors behind Marquette’s papers and newsletters. From current events and trends to portfolio strategy and the broader economic landscape, we explore the questions investors are asking with consideration and the context you need to know.

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For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Marquette is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Marquette including our investment strategies, fees, and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.

Certainty Over Uncertainty: Biden Nominates Powell for Another Term as Fed Chair

In a move especially pivotal given today’s elevated inflation as the economy is resuscitated out of the pandemic, President Joe Biden announced yesterday morning (November 22nd) that he would nominate the incumbent Jerome Powell for another term as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Additionally, Biden nominated Lael Brainard as Vice Chair. Both Powell and Brainard had been under consideration for the Chair role in uncharacteristically lengthy deliberations on the part of Biden, who had interviewed both for the position on November 4th.

This newsletter provides background on Powell and Brainard, covers the market reaction to Biden’s announcement, and analyzes expectations for interest rates and inflation in the coming years.

Read > Certainty Over Uncertainty: Biden Nominates Powell for Another Term as Fed Chair

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Defined Contribution Plan Legislative Update – 4Q 2021

This legislative update covers Congress’ continued negotiation of retirement legislation with the hope of finalizing Secure Act 2.0 early next year; as it stands, there are two legislative bills proposed by the House and Senate. We also review updates from the Department of Labor on a proposed rule entitled Prudence and Loyalty in Selecting Plan Investments and Exercising Shareholder Rights that would allow plan participants to consider environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors when selecting investments and exercising shareholder rights; recent cybersecurity guidance from the Department of Labor; an upcoming review and report by the Government Accountability Office for Congress on Target Date Funds; and 2022 contribution limits issued by the IRS.

Read > 4Q21 DC Legislative Update

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Holiday Supply Chain Woes Linger

Headlines continue to buzz with worries of supply network dysfunction that seem to span every link of the chain, from truckers and shippers to commodities and semi-conductors. Clearly, the delicate balance of supply and demand is off kilter. Supply chain disruptions began when global economies locked down amid the outbreak of COVID-19, and the problem has only been exacerbated by stop-and-start re-openings that have taken place in recent months.

This newsletter seeks to understand current supply chain dynamics and what they might mean for investors and consumers alike as we move into the holiday season. We cover the three-prong problem of prices, transport, and labor, which market participants will likely feel the squeeze tighter than others, how companies have continued to grow their margins, inflation considerations, and what to expect in the short and long term.

Read > Holiday Supply Chain Woes Linger

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead Forever?

Model portfolios — or those which adhere to a specific set of guidelines surrounding asset allocation and rebalancing — are often utilized by investors because of their rules-based nature, which eliminates the need for constant monitoring. One such model is the “60/40 portfolio,” which consists of a 60% allocation to diversified equities and a 40% allocation to a broad basket of fixed income securities. Due to the imperfect correlation between stock and bond returns, the 60/40 model has enjoyed decades of success at both providing its users with strong absolute returns and suitable protection during market drawdowns. Additionally, there is an intuitive attraction of the 60/40 portfolio due to its relative simplicity of holding just stocks and bonds as its underlying investments. That said, skepticism abounds regarding the model’s viability going forward in light of the current interest rate environment and low forecasted equity returns, particularly for those investors like endowments and foundations with specified spending requirements.

The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of the 60/40 model going forward and provide guidance to investors whose spending targets require an expected return that is consistent with the historical performance of 60/40 portfolios, which has typically hovered around 8%.

Read > Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead Forever?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Q3 2021 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the third quarter’s performance by Marquette’s research team, reviewing general themes from the quarter and risks and opportunities to monitor through the end of the year. Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

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China: Evergrande and Another Move Down

In August we released our newsletter China: From Leader to Laggard, in which we reviewed how China transformed from a top-performing country to a bottom-performing country between 2020 and 2021. We noted that increased regulation was a key reason for this change as new government policies have spooked investors. We highlighted that China has gone through these periods of regulatory change in the past and opined that the market would continue to be jittery over the next six to twelve months before recalibrating to the new environment.

Since then, Chinese equities have continued to fall as global investors focused their attention on Evergrande Group (Evergrande), a Chinese property developer. In this newsletter, we provide a synopsis of the Evergrande story and discuss the market risks.

Read > China: Evergrande and Another Move Down

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.