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2021 Market Preview

2020 was a year like no other and has left investors across the world wondering what the future looks like. Will vaccines prove effective in halting a pandemic that spread like wildfire across the globe? What will the impact of a new administration in Washington be on economies and markets? How much additional stimulus will be injected into the economy? And most broadly, will things ever get back to “normal”? While there are no easy answers to these questions, 2021 promises to be another volatile year, most especially until there has been sufficient roll-out and distribution of vaccines to contain the COVID-19 outbreak that continues to haunt economic growth across the globe.

Remarkably, 2020 ended up as a positive year for financial markets despite a massive sell-off in the equity and credit markets during February and March. Paradoxically, 2021 may be a less eventful year but at the same time a lower overall return environment, given that much of the optimism about economic re-openings and stimulus has already been priced into the markets. Nonetheless, there are a variety of factors worth monitoring over the next year which will directly impact market returns. Similar to past years, we offer our 2021 market preview newsletters for each of the primary asset classes we cover, with in-depth analysis of last year’s performance as well as trends, themes, opportunities, and risks to watch for in 2021.

We hope these materials can assist you and your committees as you plan for the coming year and beyond. We have also produced a 2021 Market Preview video if you would like to hear a high-level summary of the market previews. Should you have any questions about anything related to these materials, please feel free to reach out to any of us for further assistance. Here’s to a return to normalcy in 2021!

U.S. Economy: Are Better Days Ahead?
by Brandon Von Feldt, CFA, Research Analyst

Fixed Income: Poised for Further Recovery with Undertones of Exuberance
by Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income

U.S. Equities: Birth of a New Market
by Samantha T. Grant, CFA, CAIA, Assistant Vice President,
Colleen Flannery, Research Analyst, U.S. Equities, and
Evan Frazier, CAIA, Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

Non-U.S. Equities: Constructive but Cautious
by David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities, and
Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Global Equities

Hedge Funds: Poised for Another Record Year?
by Joe McGuane, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Alternatives
and Jessica Noviskis, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Hedge Funds

Real Estate: Finding the New Normal
by Will DuPree, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Infrastructure: An Evolving Opportunity Set, but an Essential Allocation
by Will DuPree, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Private Equity: Both Quality and Growth Shine Brightly in 2020
by Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Director of Private Equity

Private Credit: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
by Brett Graffy, CAIA, Research Analyst

Download the combined files > Traditional and Alternatives

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2021 Market Preview Video

This video coincides with our 2021 Market Preview newsletters and provides a high-level summary of each, including analysis of last year’s performance as well as trends, themes, opportunities, and risks to watch for in 2021.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

Sign up for research alerts to be notified when we publish new videos here.
For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Tech Bubble Revisited? Contrasting the Current Landscape with the Dot-Com Boom and Bust

Continued strong performance of technology-oriented stocks through disparate economic environments, elevated valuations, and increasing concentration within the growth space have caused many to draw parallels between present-day conditions and those of the late 1990s. Some feel as though investor exuberance surrounding innovative companies is irrational, and that 2021 could bring with it a paradigm shift in terms of sentiment and market leadership.

This newsletter seeks to assess the extent to which the current equity landscape mirrors the Dot-com Bubble with an analysis of performance, sector concentration, profitability fundamentals, and valuations.

Read > Tech Bubble Revisited? Contrasting the Current Landscape with the Dot-Com Boom and Bust

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Cash Balance Product Alternatives & Recommendations in the Current Ultra-Low Yield Environment

With short-term interest rates seemingly stuck at unprecedented low levels, a key challenge for investors today is how best to obtain compelling yields for cash balances as part of an overall portfolio while maintaining safety and principal protection.

In this newsletter, we examine the current ultra-low yield environment and what options investors may consider in their approach to structuring an optimal cash allocation.

Read > Cash Balance Product Alternatives & Recommendations in the
Current Ultra-Low Yield Environment

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Dave Smith Speaking at Institutional Investor Virtual Roundtable 5/21

On Thursday, May 21st, Dave Smith, CFA will be speaking at a virtual roundtable hosted by Institutional Investor’s Institutional & Alternatives Investor Institutes.

Dave will be moderating a session focused on Endowments & Foundations: “For E&Fs, the Pandemic’s Effects Reach Far Beyond Portfolio Losses. What Does the Rest of 2020 Look Like?” As many endowments and foundations are facing operational variables on top of challenges in portfolio management, the panel will explore how E&Fs are thinking about the long term in the wake of coronavirus and how E&F investors might secure liquidity from a largely illiquid portfolio.

The Roundtable will bring together health care funds, endowments and foundations, public pension plans, and insurance investors to discuss how asset allocators and investment consultants are dealing with the disruption caused by COVID-19.

For more information, please visit the Institutional Investor Institute website.

Why Will Yields Remain Low After COVID and What Can Investors Do About It?

As we head into the 2020 year-end holiday season on the heels of positive vaccine news and an all but formally concluded presidential election, investors are turning their attention to what the state of the world economy and financial markets might look like as we potentially return to normal in 2021 and beyond. One key question being asked is where interest rates and bond yields might be headed.

In this newsletter, we explore why we are in such an ultra-low yield environment as well as what key structural transformations need to take place for rates to meaningfully rise to higher levels. Last, we devise a recommended plan of action for how asset owners can address this persistent ultra-low yield environment — even after a COVID recovery — in order to achieve return or volatility targets.

Read > Why Will Yields Remain Low After COVID and What Can Investors Do
About It?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Target Date Funds Education Featured in Benefits Magazine

Marquette research was featured in the December 2019 edition of Benefits Magazine. The article, To or Through: Evaluating TDF Glide Paths, explores different target date fund (TDF) glide paths and how they may affect retirement savings outcomes.

While there is much debate about whether “to” or “through” glide paths better serve plan participants, the multitude of offerings allows for a best-fit solution that can address the specific characteristics and needs of the participant group. TDFs should be evaluated according to the benefits and risk exposures of the specific fund as well as the characteristics of the group, and as the steepness and length of derisking periods have large effects on participant outcomes, glide paths are a critical component of the evaluation process.

For more of Marquette’s TDF coverage, read our white paper, Target Date Funds: Preparing Participants for Retirement.

Benefits Magazine, the monthly publication of the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans, covers benefit issues affecting multiemployer, single employer and public employee plan representatives.

Download PDF> To or Through: Evaluating TDF Glide Paths

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

 

How Will the 2020 Election Affect the Markets?

The 2020 presidential election is fast approaching on November 3rd and key election issues pertaining to the economy will be viewed with respect to a backdrop of crisis and uncertainty more than ever. Curbing the spread of COVID-19 is at odds with reopening the economy while racial injustice remains a focal point. A potential Biden presidency and Democrat-controlled Senate could result in tax increases aimed at stimulating the economy through public projects and providing a social safety net. In contrast, a second term with Trump would likely mean more of the status quo in terms of keeping the 2017 tax cuts, further trade negotiations with China, and his attempt to nullify Obama’s Affordable Care Act.

In this newsletter, we assess the platforms of both Biden and Trump with a focus on Biden’s proposed tax policies and a perspective on how they are expected to affect the economy and markets. We next examine the historical effect of politics on the markets such as equity performance based on which party controls the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. Lastly, we take a look at 2020 election expectations based on recent polls and markets.

Read > How Will the 2020 Election Affect the Markets?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2019 Investment Symposium

 


Friday, October 4, 2019
8:00 AM – 2:00 PM

Marquette clients – Please join us at our annual Investment Symposium to discuss the current market environment, emerging investment themes, and investment stewardship challenges in the year ahead. In addition to our keynote, the event will feature a panel of portfolio managers and six flash talks by our research team that will brief attendees on popular topics and encourage timely conversations with our investment consultants.

 

Agenda 

8:00 – Registration Open/Breakfast
8:45 – Welcome and Opening Remarks by Brian Wrubel
9:00 – A Prism of Capital Market Views: Portfolio Manager Panel featuring:

John W. Rogers, Jr., Chairman, Co-CEO & Chief Investment Officer at Ariel Investments
Olga Bitel, Partner and Global Strategist at William Blair
Matthew J. Eagan, CFA, Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Loomis, Sayles & Company 

10:00 – Break
10:15 – Flash Talks: Session 1

The Investment Case Behind ESG Investing and Implementation in Practice
Nat Kellogg, CFA, Director of Manager Search

Beyond Traditional Real Estate: Exploring Opportunities in Non-Core Real Estate
Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

So Many Risks, So Little Time: What’s Next in Global Risk?
Nicole Johnson-Barnes, Research Analyst

11:00 – Break
11:15 – Flash Talks: Session 2

U.S. Against the World: Should Investors Still Own International Stocks?
David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities
Samantha T. Grant, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

Machine Learning for Investing: How is Artificial Intelligence Being Used in Asset Management?
Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income

Pick Your Portfolio Poison: Recession or Inflation?
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Director of Research

12:00 – Keynote Presentation by Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council, author of two New York Times bestsellers, and former CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO

2:00 – Adjourn

 

Please note our new location:

The Standard Club
320 S. Plymouth Court
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Tel: (312) 427-9100
Business casual attire required. 

 

Trump Bypasses Congress with Coronavirus Relief Executive Actions

This past Saturday, August 8th, President Trump issued several executive actions that serve as an emergency COVID-19 aid package. The package includes three memoranda that provide assistance for the jobless, a payroll tax deferral, and an extension of the student loan payment moratorium and an executive order that provides rental and mortgage assistance to mitigate evictions and foreclosures. The executive actions came about because of a stalled Congress as negotiations over the last two weeks fell apart last Friday, August 7th, between the Senate Republicans with their $1 trillion proposal and the House Democrats with their $3.5 trillion proposal.

This newsletter puts these executive actions into context with earlier federal stimulus packages, including an overview of how each action will be implemented and expected economic and financial impacts.

Read > Trump Bypasses Congress with Coronavirus Relief Executive Actions

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.