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2026 Halftime Market Insights

This video is a recording of a live webinar held July 23 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first half of 2026 across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring in the coming months.

 

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst
Fred Huang, Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Amy Miller, Associate Director of Private Equity
Hayley McCollum, Senior Research Analyst

Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.

Under the Radar for the Second Half

The usual midyear version of these letters has touched on year-to-date performance as well as the most influential macroeconomic and market-specific variables to monitor over the last six months of the year. This time, however, I enlisted the help of some colleagues — Frank Valle, Evan Frazier, Fred Huang, and Weston Whalen — to identify more subtle yet materially influential factors to watch across the economy and capital markets. Make no mistake: the headline topics of Fed policy, interest rates, geopolitics, earnings, and overall diversification remain paramount to long-term investment success, but the following metrics will likely determine if the positive performance of 2026 continues for the second half of the year.

Commodities: An Overview of the Asset Class

Commodities represent a unique asset class within global financial markets. Like equities and bonds, commodity prices are influenced by the macroeconomic environment, geopolitical events, and technological developments. However, because commodities are tangible assets, their prices are also directly affected by physical supply-and-demand dynamics, weather patterns, and other factors unique to underlying resource markets. Recent structural trends, including rising demand for metals within the technology and renewable energy sectors, have created secular tailwinds for certain commodities that potentially complement the asset class’s traditionally cyclical characteristics. Additionally, evolving energy market dynamics may provide further structural support. Years of underinvestment in conventional energy production coupled with recent geopolitical conflicts and damage to critical infrastructure in the Middle East have increased concerns about the long-term resilience of global energy supply chains, potentially supporting elevated energy prices relative to historical norms. Simultaneously, global inflationary pressures and conflicts across the world have renewed interest in commodity allocations as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical strife. This paper examines the viability of commodities in institutional portfolios by exploring the dynamics of commodity cycles and demand drivers, analyzing the historical performance of the asset class, and outlining risk management considerations. By reviewing both opportunities and challenges, the paper aims to provide a balanced and educational assessment for institutional investors seeking to understand the role of commodities in modern portfolios.

The Fed Tackles Succession Planning

The leadership structure of the Federal Reserve is intentionally designed to promote continuity, independence, and institutional stability across political cycles. Specifically, the seven members of the central bank’s Board of Governors serve staggered 14-year terms, while the Chair is appointed to a renewable four-year term by the president and confirmed by the Senate. In this context, the nomination of Kevin Warsh by the Trump administration earlier this year to lead the Fed marks a potential inflection point for U.S. monetary policy leadership. Warsh brings a combination of public- and private-sector experience, having served as a Federal Reserve governor during the Global Financial Crisis, worked in mergers and acquisitions at Morgan Stanley, and later advised policymakers and investors as a fellow at the Hoover Institution and lecturer at Stanford. Warsh’s nomination, first announced in late January and now nearing final Senate confirmation, comes as Jerome Powell is set to end his term as Chair in the coming days, concluding a tenure defined by extraordinary economic shocks and aggressive policy responses. Recent developments have effectively cleared the path for this transition, with Warsh expected to assume the role shortly after Powell’s term expires, even as Powell has indicated he intends to remain on the Board of Governors through 2028 in a move aimed at preserving institutional continuity. Against this backdrop, Warsh is in position to take the helm of a Federal Reserve that has recently undergone a historic tightening cycle and is now navigating the late stages of the inflation fight, setting the stage for what is likely to be an evolution (rather than a reset) of policy direction.

We’ve Seen This Before

Diversify. Rebalance. Stay invested. Every one of these letters has concluded with that same advice in some shape or form. It’s not particularly shiny and new, but the best documented path to a successful long-term investment program. The last eight weeks are another data point in support of these practices.

In this edition:

  • Impact of U.S.–Iran conflict on oil prices, interest rates, and equity markets
  • Volatility and drawdowns in the market cycle
  • Equity market rotation
  • Magnificent 7 detraction and increased market breadth
  • Slowdown in non-U.S. equities

1Q 2026 Market Insights Webinar

This video is a recording of a live webinar held April 16 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first quarter across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring in the coming months.

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst
Fred Huang, Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Hayley McCollum, Senior Research Analyst

Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.

If you have any questions, please send our team an email.

 

A Portfolio Needs Structure: An Overview of the Securitized Credit Asset Class

Fixed income is the largest global financial market and often one of the largest allocations within institutional investors’ portfolios. A typical fixed income allocation implements an investment grade anchor with a few “satellite” mandates — most commonly high yield bonds, leveraged loans, and emerging market debt — that carry more credit risk but provide higher levels of yield. Fixed income portfolios are often over-exposed to corporate borrowers through both anchor and satellite allocations. Additionally, these satellite allocations usually increase corporate credit risk while reducing equity diversification that fixed income is supposed to provide. Securitized credit provides higher yields and more compelling diversification benefits.

Securitized credit is a large asset class that has been largely ignored by institutional investors due to under-representation in fixed income indices, perceived complexities, and a stigma from its role in the Great Financial Crisis. While factors responsible for under-allocation to securitized credit have merits, these have caused investors to overlook the benefits of the asset class. Securitized credit provides a spread and yield premium relative to similarly rated corporate credit, diversified risk exposure to various credit and market cycles, and lower correlation to both traditional fixed income and equities. Overall, securitized credit’s attributes can help to further optimize portfolio structures.

Luis Sierra Speaking at 2026 529 Conference 9/23

On Monday, September 23, Luis Sierra, CFA, will be speaking at the annual 529 Conference hosted by ISS Market Intelligence in Nashville, Tennessee.

Luis will be presenting a session entitled “Structuring & Evaluating the Investment Lineup” for attendees addressing:

  • Investment structure in philosophy and in practice
  • Defining key terms and differentiating factors
  • Investment types and management style trends
  • New asset classes, trends in selection, and review of fee types

The 529 conference brings together the entire 529 and ABLE ecosystem and includes panels, presentations, and workshops exploring the most significant trends, challenges and opportunities shaping the industry today. Discussions will cover the latest federal and state legislative developments, product enhancements, investment trends, marketing and distribution strategies, operational initiatives, consumer insights, and key regulatory and compliance updates.

For more information, please visit the 529 Conference website.

Jessica Noviskis Featured on Bloomberg Markets 7/3/26

Portfolio Strategist Jessica Noviskis, CFA was featured on Bloomberg Television’s Markets coverage on July 3, 2026.

Jessica discussed market uncertainty surrounding the AI rally, how investors can approach diversification within portfolio construction — including across both asset classes or geography — what asset classes may diversify portfolios well outside the 60/40 structure, and expectations for how Fed actions may impact markets and the economy with Warsh at the helm.

Watch Jessica’s interview segment on Bloomberg’s website.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Seventy-Five Horses and Two Pieces of Plastic

Anyone who has gone snowmobiling knows it can be simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying. Throttling across snow and through a forest powered by a 75-horsepower engine with two plastic skis to steer makes it hard to feel like one has complete control; 30 mph in the open air feels more like 100!

Nonetheless, operating a snowmobile is pretty straightforward: The throttle is a right-thumb button, the brake is a left-hand squeeze lever. Beyond those two controls, it’s up to the driver to effectively navigate the trail, with the critical concession that the terrain is out of anyone’s complete control. Which brings me to our 2026 market outlook.

The “throttles” for portfolios are the usual constituents: equities, below investment grade credit, and private markets. The “brakes” are investment grade fixed income, particularly Treasuries which can slow a portfolio’s losses if the market tumbles. The terrain is naturally the actual path that each of these asset classes will follow in 2026. Since 2022 the equity market ride has been mostly exhilarating, save for some of the terrifying moments like the market dip after Liberation Day. But that’s in the rearview mirror, and the focus is what is around the bend. Will the thrill continue, or should we ease up on the throttle?