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The Calm Before the Storm?

I spent the past weekend at my alma mater to watch them play their biggest rival. Football weekends there are filled with celebrations, traditions, and of course, tailgating. Saturday was a quintessential Midwestern day to be outside: sunny, low 70s, light breeze — no better conditions for food and drinks in the parking lot. About three hours before kickoff, however, massive thunderstorms rolled in which sent fans scurrying for cover and threatened to delay the game. For fans who hadn’t checked the forecast, they were ill-prepared to stay dry and enjoy the game as it rained for the duration of the match. Nonetheless, the stadium stayed full for the entire game, a testament to the home team’s performance as well as fan loyalty. That said, I saw plenty of cold and wet attendees in the concourse after the game — those who weren’t equipped for the conditions undoubtedly wished they had been better prepared for what the environment brought Saturday.

On my drive home Sunday, I couldn’t help but worry if as investors we find ourselves right where I was Saturday afternoon, wondering if the conditions were too good to be true for a mid-October day in the Midwest.

2025 Investment Symposium

Watch the flash talks from Marquette’s 2025 Investment Symposium livestream on September 26 in the player below — use the upper-right list icon to access a specific presentation.

 

Please feel free to reach out to any of the presenters should you have any questions.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Markets

Over the last several decades, artificial intelligence (“AI”) has evolved from a theoretical concept into a transformative force across a variety of industries. The 1940s saw the advent of the digital computer, which was followed years later by the first artificial neural network, a computational model inspired by the structure of the human brain that consists of algorithms that attempt to recognize relationships in data. In more recent years, researchers have developed “deep learning” systems (i.e., neural networks with many layers) capable of increasingly complex tasks including image recognition, reading comprehension, and predictive reasoning. Given the advances in the space, it should not come as a surprise that the use cases of artificial intelligence are now vast, with AI tools now implemented across fields including health care, retail, finance, and entertainment. Researchers and corporate executives are not the only ones to have noticed the remarkable potential of AI, however, as investors have flocked to the space in droves over the last several years.

This newsletter outlines the growth of AI as an investment theme, including performance, valuations, and earnings growth of AI-related companies and equities, other segments of the market that may stand to benefit from advances in AI, and potential risks for investors.

Alternatives in Defined Contribution Plans

On August 7, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order to expand alternative investment access in defined contribution retirement plans (e.g., 401(k) plans). This order instructs the Department of Labor (DOL) to reexamine its guidance to plan sponsors incorporating alternative investments into these types of retirement plans. According to the order, the six classes of alternative assets included are:

  • Private markets investments, including private equity and private debt
  • Real estate
  • Actively managed vehicles investing in digital assets
  • Commodities
  • Infrastructure
  • Lifetime income strategies, including longevity risk-sharing pools

Treasury Market Creates a Balancing Act

Despite the U.S. economy’s impressive growth in recent decades, the federal government currently faces elevated borrowing costs to fund its persistent budget deficits. While current bid-to-cover ratios remain robust in absolute terms, a declining trend in shorter maturities could represent one early warning sign that the traditional investor base demand is waning.

This newsletter examines the Treasury’s challenge of balancing funding costs with market demand and potential fiscal and monetary policy implications.

2025 Halftime Market Insights

This video is a recording of a live webinar held July 17 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first half of the year across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring through the rest of 2025.

 

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst
Catherine Hillier, Senior Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Amy Miller, Associate Director of Private Equity
Chad Sheaffer, CFA, CAIA Senior Research Analyst

Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.

If you have any questions, please send our team an email.

Policy Uncertainty Blurs the Outlook

As we enter the second half of the year, Liberation Day-induced market volatility seems like a distant memory with the S&P hitting another all-time high on July 10th and non-U.S. stocks significantly outpacing their U.S. counterparts through June 30th. Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law by President Trump on July 4th with varying expectations on its impact to growth but a consensus view that it will push the deficit higher.

In this edition:

  • Tariff and policy uncertainty
  • Risk factors and market indicators
  • Equity market drivers
  • Currency and regional trends
  • What to watch in the second half

Why Are Emerging Markets Investors Removing Their China Exposure?

Emerging markets (EM) equities have gone through cycles of performance throughout time, creating varied investor sentiment towards the asset class. Recently, discussions around excluding China from investment portfolios have become more common, spurring the growth of active EM ex-China strategies. This newsletter explores the current landscape of EM investing, examines the drivers of the EM ex-China trend, and analyzes the performance impact of removing China from an EM allocation.

2025 Investment Symposium

Photograph of the Chicago skyline at sunset, looking south with Hancock Tower near center of frame

Friday, September 26, 2025
8:00 AM – 2:00 PM

Marquette clients – We hope you’ll join us at our 2025 Investment Symposium! This year’s event will be held in person in Chicago and virtually via livestream.

Our program will begin with an investment manager panel exploring investment opportunities and risks presented by the AI revolution and how firms are using the technology to refine and improve their investment process. From there, our research team and consultants will present several flash talks covering timely investment topics and a snapshot of the current market landscape across various asset classes. Rounding out the day, we’re excited to host Milwood Hobbs, Jr., of Oaktree Capital Management for a fireside chat keynote.

________________________________________

AGENDA

All times in Central Time

8:00am — Registration Open
Livestream will begin at 8:30
Breakfast served until 10:00

8:45 — Welcome Remarks by Brian Wrubel, Chief Executive Officer

9:00 — Opening Panel
Artificial Intelligence: From Investment Opportunities to Practical Implementation
Rich Mathieson, CA, Managing Director, Systematic Equities, Blackrock
Roland Reynolds, Senior Managing Director, Industry Ventures
Seth Weingram, Ph.D., Senior Vice President, Director, Client Advisory, Acadian Asset Management

10:00 — Break

10:15 — Flash Talks

Public vs. Private: A Fixed Income Collision
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
Chad Sheaffer, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst

What Makes a Good Fiduciary?
Linsey Schoemehl Payne, Partner, Chief Compliance Officer
Stephanie Osten, Principal

The Changing Face of Real Estate
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research

11:00 — Break

11:15 — Flash Talks

U.S. Equity Markets: Trend or New Normal?
Catherine Hillier, Senior Research Analyst

Private Equity in 2026 and Beyond: Allocations, Expectations, and the New Reality
Amy Miller, Associate Director of Private Equity
Chris Caparelli, CFA, Partner

Will U.S. Exceptionalism Continue for Global Equities?
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search

12:00pm — Lunch Break

12:45 — Keynote: Fireside Chat
Milwood Hobbs, Jr., Managing Director at Oaktree Capital Management, in conversation with Greg Leonberger

2:00 — Adjourn

 

VENUE DETAILS

The Union League Club
65 W. Jackson Blvd.
Chicago, IL 60604
(312) 427-7800

One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Excise Tax Changes Legislative Update

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump on July 4, 2025. The legislation includes significant updates to the excise tax structure on net investment income of certain educational institutions, with direct implications for private colleges and universities related to their endowments.

This legislative update addresses considerations for investors regarding:

  • Changes to the current excise tax for private colleges and universities
  • Private foundation excise tax
  • Scrutiny of tax-exempt debt issuance
  • Reinstatement of a universal charitable deduction