The State of Real Estate: Is the Run Over?

April 2015 Investment Perspectives

Core real estate investments have done well over the past several years, with the benchmark NFI-ODCE returning 12.5% in 2014, its fifth consecutive yearly gain since the real estate recovery began in 2010. Investors may be wondering if this run can continue, or if it is time to pull back on their allocations to real estate. In this newsletter, we address these questions by examining critical drivers of the real estate market, such as performance, valuation, leverage, debt profiles, income, and capital flows.

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Do Liquid Alternatives Deserve the Hype?

Liquid alternative assets, as defined by Morningstar, have continued to grow since 2009 and by the end of 2014, reached nearly $158 billion, up 11% from the previous year. The top 2014 fund flows within Morningstar’s liquid alternative category were concentrated across multi-alternatives (+$9.8B), long/short equity (+$6.5B), and managed futures strategies (+$2.3B).

Liquid alternative1 assets, as defined by Morningstar, have continued to grow since 2009 and by the end of 2014, reached nearly $158 billion, up 11% from the previous year. The top 2014 fund flows within Morningstar’s liquid alternative category were concentrated across multi-alternatives (+$9.8B), long/short equity (+$6.5B), and managed futures strategies (+$2.3B). Additionally, multi-alternative flows have already totaled $1 billion in the first month of 2015, continuing to lead all other categories.

Before jumping on the bandwagon, it is important to take a step back and analyze how some of the liquid alternative strategies have performed compared to their private counterparts. Although not an exact apples-to-apples comparison, this week’s chart of the week compares the growth of $1 since January 2000 of the HFR equity hedge index (private) vs. the Morningstar long/short category (liquid). Interestingly, while the liquid long/short equity strategies outperformed private HFR equity hedge from early 2001 through mid-2003, private funds have beaten their liquid counterparts by a significant margin over the long run. Although liquid alternatives offer an attractive liquidity profile, they come with all the restrictions of a 40 Act mutual fund which limit illiquid holdings and leverage. When it comes to investing in alternative strategies, this is one reason we believe that private vehicles are most appropriate for institutional investors.

1Liquid alternatives encompass non-traditional investment strategies or asset classes (beyond equities and bonds) such as REITs, MLPs, commodities, currencies, distressed debt, or hedge fund strategies in a mutual fund format.

2015 Market Preview

January 2015

Similar to previous years, we offer our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2015 is no different: U.S. equities are at all-time highs, uncertainty reigns for international equities, and to everyone’s surprise, interest rates fell dramatically in 2014…but are poised to rise from historic lows over the next year. In the alternative space, real estate remains a solid contributor to portfolio returns, and private equity delivered on return expectations, though dry powder is on the rise. Hedge fund results were mixed, but have shown to add value in past rising interest rate environments. Further macroeconomic items that bear watching for their potential impact on capital markets include the precipitous fall in oil prices, the strengthening U.S. dollar, job growth, and international conflicts.

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2015 Market Preview Briefing

A briefing on our 2015 Market Preview report, covering the overall U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S./non-U.S. equity, hedge funds, private equity, real estate and infrastructure.

Live Webinar – Thursday, January 15, 2015 – 1:00-1:45 PM CT

Please join Marquette’s asset class analysts for a live webinar briefing on 2015 capital market expectations. Potential market drivers and general outlooks will be discussed for the overall U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S./non-U.S. equity, hedge funds, private equity, real estate and infrastructure.

Live webinar attendees will be able to submit questions to the presenters and vote in audience polls during the event. Questions will be answered during the final 15 minutes of the webinar, as time allows.

If you are unable to attend the webinar live, you can also view it afterward on demand. Registrants will automatically receive a follow-up email shortly after the end of the webinar to notify them of webinar recording availability.

Please contact us for access to this video.

Portfolio Strategies for a Rising Interest Rate Environment

2014 Marquette Investment Symposium session

In this presentation from our 2014 Investment Symposium, we explore current interest rate levels, our perspective as consultants, and strategic solutions for mitigating the effects of rising rates on portfolios.


Recorded Friday, September 12, 2014
2014 Marquette Investment Symposium

Please contact us for access to this video.

Fixed Income, (Eventually) Rising Rates and the (Non) Universal Law of “Bond Gravity”

In describing some of the strategies and portfolio frameworks that investors could consider for the management of their duration, liquidity, and credit exposures in anticipation of rising rates, we will address the potential benefits and also highlight some likely risks that should not be overlooked.

While we cannot predict exactly when and by how much rates will rise, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has recently signaled that we could see a modest increase in the fed funds rate by mid-2015. Given the increased possibility of rates rising over the next few years, investors should not retreat in fear from bonds en masse or look to underweight their fixed income allocations to anemic levels. Instead, they should continue to view fixed income as strategically important: after all, fixed income is a broad asset class with a diverse opportunity set. And, while we will summarize our views on some different sub-asset classes in this paper (including floating rate bonds, non-U.S. debt and convertibles), for additional reading on non-core fixed income sub-asset classes, please refer to our previously released papers on global fixed income, emerging markets debt, high yield, and senior secured loans.

In respecting the broadness of our client base, we seek to avoid a one-size-fits-all narrative on how they could look to manage their bond allocations: some clients will be limited in their ability to access certain sub-asset classes while others will have ample room and resources to maneuver across the choice spectrum. Consequently, there are a number of prudent approaches and strategies for these different types of investors to explore as a means of hedging their interest rate risk. The key is establishing which portfolio framework or sub-asset class exposure is the best fit for their programs and in line with their circumstances, risk tolerances, and investment goals.

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Emerging Markets: The Case for Sub-Asset Class Diversification

March 2014 Investment Perspectives

The purpose of this newsletter is not to debate whether one index provider’s methodology is superior to another index provider’s; there are several papers in the market place that expertly do this in great depth. Rather, we wish to highlight that given the broad choice of core equity EM mandates that are available in the marketplace, investors should look to be on the same definitional page as their chosen or desired asset manager(s) as to what constitutes “emerging market” exposure.

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Emerging Markets: A Crisis of Confidence

February 2014 Investment Perspectives

After a disappointing 2013 and a significant sell-off to begin 2014, many investors are questioning their ongoing allocations to emerging markets (“EM”). Since 2013, EM countries have consistently underperformed their developed market counterparts, with equities losing 8.8% and local currency debt declining 12.5%. This compares to the S&P 500 and the EAFE which have returned 27.2% and 20.1%, respectively, over the same time period.

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2014 Market Preview

January 2014

Similar to previous years, we present our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2014 is no different: We are coming off a banner year for U.S. equities, low interest rates continue to stymie fixed income investors, and while developed market equities enjoyed a strong 2013, emerging market stocks sputtered. In the alternative space, real estate and hedge funds proved accretive to portfolio returns, while growing dry powder in the private equity space is starting to raise a few eyebrows.

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3Q 2013 Market Briefing

A briefing on our 3Q 2013 Market Environment report, covering the overall U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S./non-U.S. equity, hedge funds, private equity, real estate and infrastructure.

Live Webinar – Friday, October 25, 2013 – 1:00-1:45 PM CT

Please join Marquette’s asset class analysts for a live webinar briefing on our 3Q 2013 Market Environment report. This webinar series is designed to brief clients on the market as soon as possible after quarterly market data becomes available.

The overall U.S. economy will be discussed, along with fixed income, U.S./non-U.S. equity, hedge funds, private equity, real estate and infrastructure.

Live webinar attendees will be able to submit questions to the presenters and vote in audience polls during the event. Questions will be answered as time allows during the Q&A session towards the end of the webinar.

If you are unable to attend the webinar live, you can also view it afterward on demand. Registrants will automatically receive a follow-up email shortly after the end of the webinar to notify them of webinar recording availability.

Please contact us for access to this video.