Topic Tags: Asset Allocation

And the Winner is… Commodities?

Through the end of May, 2018 has featured volatility and uncertainty across financial markets leading to some disappointing performance. Fixed income investments struggled as the yield curve rose with both core bonds and high yield slightly negative year to date. Broad U.S. equities are only up 2.5% after a rocky start to the year while international equities are negative following an exceptionally strong 2017. All this, along with fears about inflation, led to a surprising result: commodities are the best performing asset class in 2018. Despite this, the asset class is still by far the worst performer over both a 5 and 10-year period.

This week’s chart shows how difficult it is to time the market and why maintaining a consistently well-diversified portfolio is so important. The argument could be made that commodities were due to outperform (i.e. buy low and sell high) given their recent struggles. However, in 2014 commodities were down over 33%; investors hoping for a nice rebound the following year were in for a shock as commodities fell another 32.9% in 2015. On the flip side, last year emerging market (EM) equities was the top performing asset class, but those looking to chase this return now find themselves in the worst performing asset class YTD. There is little correlation between returns year to year and therefore we encourage clients to stick with long term allocations and avoid portfolio decisions based solely on recent returns.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

How Will Tax Reform Impact Individual Investors?

We recently penned a letter outlining how the Tax Code changes may impact capital market expectations. Although the changes to corporate tax provisions were meaningful, we concluded that the legislation is expected to modestly impact capital markets and that clients need not make material changes to their long-term asset allocation based purely on the passage of the bill. A copy of the report, titled How Will Tax Reform Impact Asset Classes? can be found on our website here. The following newsletter addresses the impacts to individual investors.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice nor an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

How Will Tax Reform Impact Asset Class Returns?

On December 20, 2017, Congress passed the final version of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (H.R. 1).  This tax reform bill is estimated to be a $1.5 trillion tax cut and represents the most significant reform to the U.S. tax code since the 1986 tax cut passed under President Reagan.  This newsletter will address the most important changes as it relates to the economy, markets, and our client portfolios.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice nor an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

When Popularity is an Achilles’ Heel: Bank Loan Re-Pricings

Through October, bank loans are up only 3.7% compared to high yield’s 7.5% return, and the disparity between the two below-investment grade strategies has surprised some investors. The root cause of bank loans’ relatively disappointing returns is re-pricings, which tend to offset the floating rate value proposition of bank loans. Re-pricings have preserved the absolute value of bank loan yields, even with LIBOR rising to its current level of 130bps. As a result, bank loan returns have been muted this year, despite the credit rally in 2017.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice nor an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2017 Investment Symposium Briefing

A quick recap of the 2017 Investment Symposium — from CEO Brian Wrubel’s opening remarks to the keynotes and flash talks. This year’s symposium covered the current market environment, emerging investment themes and investment stewardship challenges in the year ahead. Our flash talk format is designed to brief clients on pressing topics and encourage timely conversations with investment consultants.

Full keynote and flash talk videos available on demand:

The Return of Earnings

One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the current equity environment as valuations are well above their historical averages. The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 climbed over 45% during the past five years resulting in several new all-time high index levels. Given the length of the current bull market many have begun to prepare for a correction over the past few years, yet we are still waiting.

In early 2016 equity markets appeared to be in trouble as earnings repeatedly disappointed. Instead, stocks ultimately rallied with Trump’s pro-growth agenda, as investors anticipated increases in infrastructure spending and lower taxes. But with the failure to pass any major legislation so far, it seemed these gains were in danger of being wiped out. However, this time it was earnings to the rescue, as they climbed more than 10% over the trailing 12 months. This allowed stocks to rise even higher while stabilizing valuations.

While earnings are unlikely to continue growing at this pace, during 2013 and 2014 they did average a more reasonable 6.5%. If earnings can maintain that level once again markets may be able to postpone a correction and further sustain the current bull market. Should they fall, however, there may not be other factors to support valuation levels and hold off significant losses.

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Healthcare Organizations’ Top 3 Investment Concerns for Balance Sheet Assets

Historically, healthcare organizations have covered their cost of debt by investing in a conservative mix of fixed income securities. However, for most of the recovery since the Great Recession, the yield on their debt payments exceeded the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate (Agg) bond index yield. Therefore, many organizations were forced to consider riskier assets to cover their debt payments as a result of this adverse spread. Now that the Federal Reserve rate hikes are underway, Agg yields are once again approaching parity with healthcare issuer debt yields and thereby reducing the pressure to invest in riskier assets to make up for the spread disparity.

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Central Bank Balancing Act

The Federal Reserve continues to signal its intention to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, with the markets anticipating the first move to occur in September. Much of the liquidity, and consequently, asset returns, in the global markets today could be attributed to the substantial bond and other securities purchases made by the major central banks, thereby ballooning their balance sheets.

Our chart this week shows the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) balance sheets over time, totaling $14 trillion today. While the Fed has effectively stopped growing its balance sheet since 2014, the ECB and BOJ continue to expand their balance sheets. With the U.S. enjoying the strongest economy relative to Europe and Asia, the Fed will be the first to taper its balance sheet. This move would effectively slow down stimulus in the U.S., with the ECB and BOJ’s balance sheet tapering to follow at some point in the future when their economies have resuscitated. The Fed has been broadly communicating the mechanics of its tapering, and we expect the markets to respond relatively moderately to the first reduction event.

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2017 Market Preview

January 2017

Similar to past market preview newsletters, we enter the year with a new set of questions. What shape will Trump’s policies take and how will they impact the market? Will the formal start of the Brexit have an impact on portfolios? To what degree and pace will the Fed increase interest rates? These topics among many others are covered in the following articles as we offer our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and other headlines will emerge as the year goes on; it is critical to understand how asset classes will react to each new development and what such reactions will mean to investors. The following articles contain insightful analysis and key themes to monitor over the coming year, themes which will underlie the actual performance of the asset classes covered. Recognizing that many of our clients may not have time to cover the following 30 pages of material, we offer the primary conclusions for each asset class heading into 2017.

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