Fixed Income - Investment Grade Archives — Page 13 of 23

Second Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

The second quarter of 2020 proved to be as eventful as the first, with slow economic results being largely ignored as markets rallied. GDP growth for the quarter is expected to come in at -35.5% YoY, though 3Q GDP projections indicate a significant rebound is expected as the country begins to reopen to “the new normal.” In addition, the unemployment rate came in at 11.1%, down from the April peak above 14%. Below are some highlights from the quarter:

Countries around the globe began reopening businesses amid fears of a second wave of COVID-19 infections.
Daily infections reached a new high in the United States at more than 50,000 per day, causing some states to roll back their reopening plans.
Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance have continued to trend downwards.
Additional fiscal and monetary stimulus are expected in the second half of the year, bolstering markets.

COVID-19 has proven to be a potentially long-lasting concern as it remains to be seen whether we are in for a V-shaped or U-shaped recovery. Economic data is improving slowly, though markets have seemed to shrug off some of the negative news as the S&P 500 moved into positive territory over the one-year period. Though it may have fallen into the background due to COVID-19, 2020 is a presidential election year. Uncertainty surrounding the election will undoubtedly have an impact on forward-looking expectations. In this newsletter, we analyze what all of this means for each asset class.

Read > Second Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Is the Worst Behind Us?

The 10-year Treasury yield broke through a key threshold yesterday closing at 0.77%, its highest in eight weeks, and ending at the same 0.77% that it closed at on April 8^th. As shown in this week’s chart, the yield curve has been steepening substantially since March 9^th, when the 10-year closed at its all-time low of 0.54%. This steepening may be a sign from the bond markets that the worst might be behind us.

On the economic front, Automatic Data Processing released data yesterday that showed the private sector lost only 2.76 million jobs in May, far below the 8.75 million forecasted by economists, and also far below the 19.56 million private sector jobs that were lost in April. This welcome news was amplified by National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci’s remark that Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate is likely on-track to start Phase III human trials in July. Additionally, he noted that the plan is to begin manufacturing doses of the vaccine in tandem with the trials so that potentially 100 million doses are available to be shipped by November or December. Collectively, these favorable developments sent the S&P 500 up 1.36% and the 10-year Treasury yield from 0.68% to 0.77% yesterday, steepening the yield curve. As such, the fixed income and equity markets are finally exhibiting normal correlations, as a steepening curve with a rallying stock market signifies investors selling down long-dated Treasury bonds to buy stocks. This is in contrast with the March cash dash that sent rates down while the curve steepened all the while the stock markets fell as investors sold off both stocks and bonds to raise cash.

Also shown in our chart are the projected Treasury yield curves for the end of this year and the next two years based on the Treasury forwards market. They show the yield curve continuing to rise and steepen, with the 10-year forecasted to rise to 0.85% at the end of this year, 1.02% at the end of next year, and 1.18% at the end of 2022. While Treasury forwards will continue to fluctuate and the 10-year cannot be expected to reach these projected yields exactly, the expected steepening shows that the bond markets are expressing some level of optimism for the future given these recent positive developments. Ultimately, we see these developments as a positive sign that the economy, markets, and pandemic are progressing towards recovery.

Print PDF > Is the Worst Behind Us?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Don’t Mind the Gap

On the surface it looks disjointed. We are in the midst of what is likely the worst recession since the Great Depression, but the stock market has rallied back in a matter of weeks and currently sits just 10% off all-time highs. Treasury yields appear to be pricing in an extended period of softness, and high yield spreads have only started to show signs of recovery. While the future is always an unknown, it feels as if we are facing a new level of uncertainty with many more moving parts.

In this newsletter, we explore equity market dynamics to help reconcile the apparent gap between the recent good news from equity markets and overwhelmingly negative news from the economy and bond markets.

Read > Don’t Mind the Gap

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Brighter Lights at the End of a Shorter Tunnel

Biotech company Moderna’s announcement earlier this week that its coronavirus vaccine successfully helped healthy adults produce antibodies against COVID-19 sent the S&P 500 up 3% and the 10-year Treasury yield rebounding from 0.64% to 0.73% on Monday. In this pandemic, the last week of March marked a pivotal turning point when investors started seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. That week was when new infections and hospitalizations started peaking and declining in Italy and Japan, soon to be joined by New York and Washington state. That week also coincided with the Federal Reserve’s and U.S. Treasury’s — later followed by Congress’s — announcement of their substantial stimulus. Credit spreads have gradually been tightening ever since as stimulus ramped up, a number of vaccines and treatments reached Phase I and Phase II clinical trial milestones, and more recently, various states have started to reopen. Moderna’s favorable results added fuel to this positive sentiment and the market’s upswing.

In this newsletter, we examine the evolution of credit spreads and yields in 2020 to gauge the attractiveness of holding investment grade and sub-investment grade credit. Vaccine development is central to assessing the markets today as it is the ultimate permanent solution, and we detail the prospects of various vaccine candidates as well as discuss how investors should allocate to credit in light of vaccine progress in conjunction with key market metrics. Although the vaccine is a permanent solution, fiscal and monetary stimulus have proven to be critical for mitigating damage to the economy and markets in the interim and are still integral to assessing the markets today. We take a closer look at these lifelines from the U.S. government in an attempt to answer the all-important question: how much runway is there with this stimulus? The hope is that current programs coupled with any future policies will be sufficient to sustain and ultimately revive the economy until a vaccine allows for complete resumption of economic activity. Lastly, we dive into the fallen angels (bonds downgraded from investment grade to sub-investment grade), defaults, and bankruptcies that are threatening the credit markets right now and how to address these as investors. Throughout this discussion, we highlight three perspectives that are critical to measuring the attractiveness of an investment or an asset class: valuations, technical factors, and fundamentals.

Read > Brighter Lights at the End of a Shorter Tunnel

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Q1 2020 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the first quarter’s performance with a special focus looking forward from the coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic and market impacts.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors. For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Light at the End of the Tunnel?

While the coronavirus pandemic is far from over, signs of improvement ranging from infections peaking to progress in the search for a cure seem to be arising on a daily basis lately. The following newsletter summarizes some of these key positive indicators and offers some guidance for portfolios in the months to come.

Read > Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

With March officially in the books, the following is a brief summary of what has transpired in the capital markets since our update early last week. As expected, the coronavirus has exploded across the U.S. and continued its spread across Europe as well. At the time of writing, the number of cases is approaching 1 million worldwide and has exceeded 200,000 here in the United States. Stocks finished their worst quarter ever on Tuesday and volatility continues to haunt the markets. While the worst may still not yet be behind us, we hope that the growing number of shelter in place edicts and more consistent social distancing may help to stem the coronavirus outbreak across the world. Please note that all return data in the following discussion utilizes the quarter end date of March 31st, 2020.

Read > April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

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