cvernon, Author at Marquette Associates

Do Presidents Play a Role in Equity Performance?

With market volatility already heightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. presidential election this year poses another layer of uncertainty that investors may view as added risk to their portfolios. In particular, there is inevitable speculation about how the market will react upon which candidate or political party wins the election. This week’s chart illustrates equity performance over the last nine presidents since 1969.

The question most asked is how the stock market will perform under Republican or Democratic leadership in the White House. Based on the data above,¹ the equity markets have averaged 14% annualized total returns when the president has been a Democrat and 8% when a Republican has been president. However, we caution that equity markets are subject to many market forces and most importantly, the sample size from this data set is not large enough to support these trends in a statistically significant manner. The good news is that regardless of political party, the stock market has averaged 10% a year over the time period shown in the chart.

As we look towards the November election, it is critical to understand the platforms of each candidate and how they can broadly impact the economy and by extension, equity markets. Understanding each candidate’s position on a variety of economic and social issues will inform the market’s likely reaction to the election results and help formulate expectations for investors. In the coming weeks, we will release a paper that examines these very topics in greater depth to establish baseline expectations of each candidate’s policies, market impact, and historical market performance of political party leadership in Washington across the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. If nothing else, we know the election will be contentious and scrutinized, with market participants closely watching the ultimate result.

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¹ For measuring equity performance, a total return index was used to account for shares that pay dividends and represent more accurate performance by reinvesting dividends back into the index.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

And the Beat Goes On…

This week, the S&P 500 index closed at 3,389.78, setting its first record high since previously peaking on February 19^th, 2020; it is up 4.9% year to date. This post-bear market recovery is officially the fastest ever. For the sake of comparison, it took more than three years for the S&P 500 to reclaim its peak after the Global Financial Crisis. However, the S&P 500 was not the first broad market index to reclaim its high in 2020. The NASDAQ 100 index surpassed its previous peak more than two months ago on June 5^th and is up 30.5% year to date. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) is still more than 5% off its record high and negative for the year.

How is it that each of these indices is considered to represent the broad domestic equity market, but they have such wide performance differences? The main reason is the calculation and composition of the indices. Let us begin with the Dow, the oldest index out of the three indices. Founded in 1896, the Dow is comprised of 30 stocks that are selected by their size and influence on American business (with the latter clearly being subjective). In addition, the DJIA is a price-weighted index which means that the companies with the highest share price have the highest weighting in the index. For instance, Apple, which trades at $462 a share¹ is the largest constituent in the DJIA with an 11.4% weight. The next largest constituent is UnitedHealth Group, which trades at $316 a share² and has a 7.8% weight in the DJIA. As a result, large price increases or declines in these stocks will have an outsized effect on the returns of the index. Consequently, the price decline in Boeing, a top 10 Dow constituent, due to delays in the Max 8 and lower demand from the COVID-19 pandemic has had a large impact on the Dow’s year-to-date return.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices are market capitalization-weighted indices. This means that the weightings of their constituents are based on the product of the stock price and the outstanding shares. As a result, stocks with high prices and the largest number of shares outstanding will have the greatest impact on the index’s return. In the case of the S&P 500, which tracks the largest 500 companies in America, this means that Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook are the largest constituents in the index. As discussed in my previous post, “There’s FAAMG and Everyone Else,” investor enthusiasm has propelled these stocks to new highs even though most of the companies in the S&P 500 are still negative for the year.

Technology companies have been the biggest beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic and the NASDAQ 100, a proxy for the Technology sector, is more concentrated than the S&P 500 and more tech-centric than the DJIA. The NASDAQ 100, which was created in 1985, tracks the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange. The FAAMG stocks are still the largest constituents in the NASDAQ 100, but Technology makes up over 55% of the NASDAQ 100 relative to 27.5% for the S&P 500 and 26.9% for the DJIA. It is also important to note that the Dow does not include Amazon, Google, or Facebook.

Over the short term, index calculation methods and composition differences can cause wide performance divergences. However, these divergences come and go based on the performance of the underlying sectors and companies. This year’s divergence has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the outperformance of Technology. As other non-Technology sectors rise in economic importance, we would expect the S&P 500 and DJIA to post more attractive relative returns.

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¹ Apple’s closing price as of August 18, 2020. Apple has also announced a 4-for-1 split effective August 31, 2020, which will reduce its price to ~$115 a share. Thus, Apple’s weight in the DJIA will decline accordingly.
² UnitedHealth Group’s closing price as of August 18, 2020.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

U.S. Treasury Borrowings, Receipts, Outlays and Deficit

The U.S. government — including the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, Congress, and executive branch — has stepped up to emergency action in rapid fashion during this coronavirus pandemic. This, along with the heroic efforts of healthcare workers, first responders, and vaccine researchers, is one of the key reasons why our financial markets have enjoyed such a quick recovery, with the S&P 500 currently back to the all-time peaks that it previously reached in February and investment grade and high yield bond spreads now having tightened back to tighter than long-term averages.

Our chart this week looks at how rapidly the U.S. Treasury raised capital by borrowing from the public and deployed that capital via the large-scale Congressional relief packages as well as Fed quantitative easing asset purchases and financial market backstops in the face of declining tax receipts. The green line represents the U.S. Treasury’s monthly borrowings from the public, which skyrocketed in March, peaked in April, and have gradually declined since. Shown in the tan are monthly U.S. Treasury receipts, which as expected gradually declined with the retrenchment in tax revenue due to the recession in which so many ill-fated businesses have shut down and millions of workers have lost their jobs. The darkest slate line shows monthly U.S. Treasury outlays, which rose steeply in March and remain high as these funds continue to be deployed for both fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Lastly, the blue line shows a rising monthly U.S. Treasury deficit which is not surprising as U.S. Treasury outlays continue to exceed receipts.

While the financial markets have dipped and rebounded to previous highs several quarters quicker than the full circle throughout the 2008 housing crisis, there are still several challenges that lie ahead: the efficacy of the vaccine candidates currently in human trials and the ability to distribute and encourage the adoption of a final approved vaccine in a timely manner; the prospects of the Republican-led Senate and Democrat-led House to agree on a next relief package to help mitigate renter evictions and homeowner foreclosures; the risk of seasonal second or third waves of infections in various regions across the world; and the implementation of re-openings with social distancing that can successfully prevent resurgences until a vaccine is approved and distributed. We continue to expect these challenges to heighten market volatility, which will be further exacerbated by a contentious U.S. presidential election looming less than three months away. Marquette will continue to monitor these issues and provide our perspectives as further developments unfold throughout this pandemic.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Gold or Glitter?

Gold prices are hitting new highs, closing above the $2,000 per ounce threshold for the first time yesterday, August 4th. It is a familiar scene amid the confluence of economic concern and uncertainty brought on by the spread of COVID-19, negative real interest rates with 10-year Treasury yields just above 0.5%, a weaker U.S. dollar, and the potential for increased inflation following unprecedented monetary stimulus. But with an asset class that only makes headlines at extreme levels, it is important that investors know what they are really getting.

Over time, gold has produced real returns about in line with Treasury Bills (before any storage costs or impact from rolling futures contracts in contango), but with volatility that more closely resembles the S&P 500. And despite being widely considered to hold its value over time, gold is a physical asset whose price is determined by supply and demand, including ongoing mining operations and a large gold jewelry market in China and India. But what is perhaps most surprising is that gold is actually a poor inflation hedge. Over the last 50 years, the correlation between gold and core inflation has ranged from -0.55 to +0.75, with an average of 0.05.¹ Over time, equities have been the best option for outperforming inflation.¹ Dating back to World War II, gold has only outperformed equities in the short windows when inflation has been categorically greater than 6% (the last of which ended in 1982), and even then only half the time.¹ Thus despite the headlines that gold receives when its price is notably rising, it is not a particularly attractive allocation for long-term investment portfolios.

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¹ Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Bond Downgrades Subsiding

As a key indicator that we have come a long way from the late-March panic and that both the economy and financial markets are steadily recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, downgrades of bonds by the bond ratings agencies such as S&P and Moody’s have been experiencing a sharp decline. Our chart this week profiles the weekly downgrade volume of U.S. investment grade corporate bonds — excluding financials — showing a precipitous drop in weekly downgrade volume from the March peaks. The reduction in downgrades for investment grade financials, as well as for both high yield bonds and bank loans, are following a similar trend, though are not shown in the chart.

Bond agencies have become more comfortable with bond issuers’ abilities to cover their debt expenses due in large part to (1) vaccine progress, (2) the commitment to stimulus by global governments, and (3) re-openings. The vaccine remains the ideal solution to this pandemic and progress has improved since March. Today, a number of vaccine candidates are in Phase II human trials, with one that began Phase III yesterday. Moderna’s vaccine started Phase III on Monday, overseen by the University of Illinois at Chicago. Pfizer/BioNTech’s candidate has been shown to produce more antibodies than those produced by people who have recovered, and last week they received from the Department of Health and Human Services and the Defense Department an order of 100 million doses for $2 billion. Oxford/AstraZeneca’s candidate has been shown to produce antibodies that may fade but it helps produce killer T-cells that may stay in circulation for years and may kill cells infected with the virus. With regard to stimulus, Senate Republicans and the White House announced a stimulus package yesterday to follow the handful of COVID-19 stimulus packages that have preceded it this year. Congress is currently working on closing the gap between this $1 trillion CARES 2.0/Safe to Work Act put forth by Senate Republicans and the $3 trillion HEROES Act put forth by House Democrats. Marquette will provide a detailed assessment of this latest package and its implications as soon as it is signed by Trump. Moreover, the Treasury continues to have the ability to issue debt at current debt-to-GDP levels in order to fund further stimulus.

All this progress is balanced by several challenges, however, with the markets having priced in the last few weeks’ rise in cases, especially from Texas and Florida — the new epicenters — and the re-closings of restaurants and bars by several states including Illinois and California, along with recent resurgences in certain countries abroad. Hospitalizations and mortality have not risen as much as cases, however, so this resurgence may be attributed to the rise in testing detecting less-serious cases, which is potentially a positive in curtailing super spreaders. As the pandemic and its recovery gradually unfold, the markets are starting to price in more non-COVID developments, such as the Biden vs. Trump campaign and recent U.S.-China tensions. The U.S. ordered China to close its consulate in Houston last Tuesday, and China took over the premises of the U.S. consulate in Chengdu, a southwestern city. Marquette will continue to assess and issue guidance on further developments related to the pandemic, the recovery, and other geopolitical events.

Print PDF > Bond Downgrades Subsiding

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Mounting Bankruptcies Reflect New Consumption Patterns

COVID-19 has caused a slew of bankruptcies across multiple industries as companies struggle to meet their cash needs. Re-openings might have come too little, too late, as large and small companies alike are filing for restructurings or bankruptcy protection. In this week’s chart, we dive into which industries have been hit the hardest and the potential lasting impact of these bankruptcies.

As shown in the charts above, nearly 140 companies with over $166 billion of assets have been forced to liquidate or restructure to meet the new environment created by COVID-19. Most recently, Ascena Retail Group, parent company of Ann Taylor and Lane Bryant, has been forced to close 1,100 stores and lay off many employees as a result. Overall, retail and restaurants have seen the largest number of companies file for bankruptcy, with 49. However, the amount of assets defaulted on in retail/restaurants were less than energy and travel. Small retail shops and restaurants have been adversely affected as these tight margin businesses are unable to be closed for very long. The shutdowns across the country have forced this exact scenario, and a wave of defaults followed. In energy and travel, large names like Chesapeake Energy ($16.2 B) and Hertz ($25.8 B) have driven the disparity between the number of companies declaring bankruptcy and total assets. Smaller companies are being adversely affected, and additional stimulus may be needed to tide these businesses over. If a second wave of coronavirus hits with an impact similar to the outbreaks in the southern and western parts of the nation, then additional shutdowns will undoubtedly force many more of these businesses to close. The concern is that many mom and pop shops could shut down permanently, forcing consumers to shop at large big-box stores. The long-lasting effects of COVID-19 have yet to be determined, but travel, retail/restaurants, and energy businesses specifically are bearing the brunt of the shutdowns as they are largely unable to be conducted online. These mounting bankruptcies are likely to continue until consumers are able to resume their normal consumption patterns, which includes in-person shopping, dining, and a return to leisure travel.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2020 Halftime Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the second quarter’s performance and coincides with our 2Q Asset Allocation Update newsletter, reviewing risks and opportunities heading into the second half of the year.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

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