Author: cvernon

Individual Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

In June of 2019, we published our first paper on the SECURE Act, “Securing Retirement through the SECURE Act,” after it passed the House and have since been monitoring the evolution of the legislation. On December 17th and 19th, the House and Senate respectively passed the SECURE Act (“the Act”) with the goal of enhancing retirement readiness for Americans. The Act will undoubtedly impact both retirement plans and individuals in many ways. This update will specifically focus on the pieces of the legislation impacting individuals.

Read> Individual Retirement Plans Legislative Update — SECURE Act

As always, your consultant will be able to address any specific questions you may have regarding these changes. A summary of the SECURE Act’s provisions impacting our defined contribution and defined benefit plan clients is outlined in a separate legislative update here.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

What Does the Next Decade Look Like for Private Equity Investors?

For U.S. private equity investors, it has been a spectacular decade. Through September 2019, EV/ EBITDA¹ multiples, a standard for measuring private equity investment value, stood at 12.8x, just below the 2014 high of 12.9x. This figure marks an 82% increase from 2009, during which the U.S. economy was emerging from the Global Financial Crisis. In addition to revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion, increasing multiples is a driver of private equity value creation and the most publicized metric on the state of the market.

A decade of increasing multiples has benefited private equity investors and managers. As investors saw the value of their private equity allocations grow, they rewarded managers with increasing amounts of capital. In 2019, global private equity raised $595 billion,² the second-largest sum ever.  A decades’ worth of prolific fundraising, like 2017’s record total of $628 billion, has created substantial amounts of dry powder, or uninvested capital. Today, private equity managers are sitting on $1.43 trillion of dry powder, waiting for investment opportunities to emerge.

These record-setting figures beg investors to ask very important questions regarding the next decade of private equity. Regardless of the past decade, we continue to see a tremendous amount of value in the private equity asset class as a return enhancer and diversifier for portfolios. Undoubtedly, investor scrutiny will increase as the asset class becomes more competitive, and manager differentiation will be paramount.

Print PDF > What Does the Next Decade Look Like for Private Equity Investors?

¹ Enterprise value / earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization
² Cummings, C. “Fundraising Stumbled in 2019 From Decade’s Record Pace,”  9 Jan. 2020. The Wall Street Journal.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Alternatives 101 Video Series

Our Alternatives 101 video series covers each of the major alternatives asset classes, with guidance provided by several of Marquette’s research analysts and directors. In contrast to traditional investments, alternatives investing includes asset classes other than stocks, bonds, and cash (reference our Investing 101 series for more information about traditional investing concepts). This series aims to introduce trustees, staff, and other investors to the key terms and concepts they may encounter when investing in these typically less familiar asset classes.

The series covers:

View each talk in the player below— use the upper-right list icon to access a specific presentation.

For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

U.K. Domestic Banks Spike After Tory Triumph

In what has been called a landmark victory, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Conservatives handily defeated their Labour party opposition in the Thursday, December 12th U.K. general election, winning 364 of the 650 Parliament seats. This landslide gain locks in a Tory government majority, which should enable Johnson to fulfill his campaign pledge to “Get Brexit Done.” The win also provides the broader market with greater certainty about the direction of Brexit, as Johnson will now have the votes necessary to complete the steps needed to make the existing divorce deal law and to take Britain out of the European Union by the end of 2020.

Brexit has been a major overhang on U.K. stocks, as evidenced by the FTSE 100 being the worst performing European Index year-to-date. In this chart of the week, we show the London stock market response to the election results. The FTSE 100 Index rallied on both the Friday and Monday after last week’s election, up 1.1% and 2.3% respectively based on closing price. In intraday trading on Monday, December 16th, the U.K. blue-chip index surged to its highest level in four months, up nearly 2.7%. Of note, those businesses acutely impacted by the domestic U.K. economy saw a meaningful boost. British financial service firms were among the major climbers during the rally, with Hargreaves Lansdown, Barclays, and Lloyds Banking Group (shown in the chart) up over 4%.

Print PDF > U.K. Domestic Banks Spike After Tory Triumph

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Defined Contribution Plan Legislative Update – 4Q 2019

Since our 2Q 2019 DC Legislative Update, both chambers of Congress have moved forward with legislative enhancements for retirement savings. Under the leadership of Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA), the House has passed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (SECURE Act). In the Senate, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, formally introduced the most recent version of the Retirement Enhancement and Savings Act (RESA). The bulk of this update discusses the similarities and differences between the two pieces of legislation and what plan sponsors can expect going forward.

In this update, we summarize various pieces of legislation and recent topics of interest for DC plan sponsors:

  • SECURE Act vs. RESA
  • Release of Final Regulations on changes to the hardship withdrawal process by the IRS
  • IRS 2020 401(k) contribution limit increases

Download PDF > 4Q 2019 Defined Contribution Legislative Update

As always, your consultant will be able to address any specific questions you may have regarding these changes. For a broader view of Marquette’s approach to defined contribution consulting, see our previous research including A Roadmap for Defined Contribution Plan Sponsors and Defined Contribution Plans: A Look at the Past, Present & Future.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Illinois Sustainable Investing Act

As sustainability factors are increasingly being incorporated into the underlying investment processes at the corporate, manager, and investor levels, it’s not surprising that the Illinois General Assembly has taken up the issue in recently passed legislation. The Illinois Sustainable Investing Act (the “Act”), formally cited as Public Act 101-0473, was signed into law by Governor Pritzker with an effective date of January 1st, 2020. The goal of the Act is to recognize that sustainability factors play an important role in an investment’s overall performance and the creation of long-term value.

In this update, we summarize the Act and offer next steps for impacted clients, including:

  • Stated goals and purposes of the Act
  • The role of sustainability factors in investment performance and value
  • The duties of public agencies and governments
  • Implementation of the Act

Download PDF > Illinois Sustainable Investing Act Legislative Update

As always, your consultant will be able to address any specific questions you may have regarding these changes.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Private Equity Position Paper – 2019 Update

This position paper explores the fundamentals of private equity as an asset class. Particularly, we examine the subcategories of venture capital, growth equity, buyout, direct lending/ mezzanine debt, and distressed, and the investment styles within them; mechanics of investing in private equity including fund structure, commitment period, cash flow, and the J-curve; investor fees and performance; and recent trends. Recommendations and guidance towards the investment manager search process and making an allocation to the asset class are also included.

Download PDF > Private Equity Position Paper

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Will the Good News Continue for U.S. Equities?

Domestic equity returns have surprised investors to the upside this year. The S&P 500 is up ~24% and the S&P has posted 26 new highs in 2019. Over the past 10 years, the S&P has recorded 233 new highs and a 481% cumulative return. The chart shows that many of the market highs were backloaded into the second half of the current recovery as economic growth and investor confidence increased. The S&P 500 did not reach its post-recession peak until 2013: four years after the financial crisis. During those four years, market volatility was elevated, but steadily decreasing.

2019’s market environment has been very different from 2009. The first contrast is valuations. In March 2009, the S&P 500 traded at 11.2 times forward earnings and today it trades at 19.2 times forward earnings, higher than its 10-year average of 16 times. Second, while market volatility on average has decreased by 50% since 2009, volatility (measured by the VIX index) ­— as shown by the orange diamond — remains elevated since 2017’s lows. Lastly, geopolitical risk has predominantly shifted from Europe and its sovereign debt crisis to the U.S.-China trade war, the latter of which is still not resolved. Luckily, U.S. businesses and especially U.S. consumers have proved resilient through these stressors. If the status quo continues into 2020, we can only hope for more of the same: positive equity returns albeit with higher market volatility and geopolitical risks.

Print PDF > Will the Good News Continue for U.S. Equities?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

What Does an Election Year Mean for Equity Investors?

Prior to each presidential election, there is inevitable talk about market reactions to candidates and how policy changes could impact investors. As shown in the table, election years tend to exhibit more muted returns (as measured by the S&P 500 index) and greater volatility compared to the years leading into the presidential election. Year-to-date, 2019 has continued the Year 3 trend of strong performance, but if history is any indication, the 2020 outlook is less optimistic.

When it comes to Republicans vs. Democrats, political pundits often try to show one is better than the other for equity market returns. The reality, however, is that there isn’t enough of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions about parties, given the number of combinations of who controls the Presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives. Even in the case of 2016 with Trump’s unexpected win, markets initially sold off but quickly rebounded to their previous levels. No matter the candidate or the policy, markets care most about clarity and dislike uncertainty. As a result, we are expecting greater volatility over the next 12 months as we head into the 2020 presidential election. While the election will certainly not be the sole driver of market volatility, it will undoubtedly contribute to further uncertainty over the coming months.

Print PDF > What Does an Election Year Mean for Equity Investors?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Should Investors Worry About the Growing Deficit?

Americans have seen tax cuts and strong historical returns across asset classes since the Global Financial Crisis. However, though the general populace has been flourishing, the decrease in revenue flowing to the government and an increase in defense spending have contributed to the deficit increasing each year since 2016. Is the increased deficit a systemic risk or simply a side effect of a low rate environment?

This week’s chart of the week shows the United States’ deficit since 2007 in absolute terms as well as a percentage of GDP. The deficit spiked during the financial crisis at $1.4 trillion dollars as the administration took action to provide stimulus to the nation while in a recession. Shortly after, the deficit began decreasing as the economy moved towards recovery. More recently, the deficit has been increasing and is projected to reach $1.1 trillion dollars in 2020, an amount not seen since 2012. On an absolute basis, the deficit has been moving upward, but has this been offset by an increase in GDP? The blue line on the graph shows the deficit as a percentage of GDP. This metric has also been steadily increasing since 2016, though it is still much lower than during the Great Recession.

One area of potential concern is that during past expansions the deficit was decreasing or low, while now the deficit is moving in the opposite direction. If a recession were to occur, the government would have to borrow even more to stimulate the economy, pushing the debt level even higher and possibly raising concerns about the U.S. financial system. On the other hand, a theory of economic thought called Modern Monetary Theory (“MMT”) has gained traction due to the proposal of large increases in government spending by left-wing presidential candidates. MMT states that a country that prints its own currency does not have to worry much about debt as it can pay it off simply by adding to the monetary supply. Thus, the thought is that the only target for central banks should be inflation.

In all, deficit spending is a crucial means of financing public programs and stimulating the economy, no matter which economic viewpoint is applied. The U.S. deficit has ebbed and flowed over time and will continue to be a point of political contention for years to come.

Print PDF > Should Investors Worry About the Growing Deficit?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.