Author: cvernon

Will Argentina’s New President Drive Losses for Hedge Funds?

When Argentina President Mauricio Macri was elected in 2015, he brought along a pro-business agenda, which reopened the country’s financial markets bringing investors ­— including hedge funds — back into the country. As hedge funds returned, their investments in both debt and equity were on the presumption that Argentina would not default on its debt, and economic growth would strengthen. Unfortunately, those bets were hit hard following a disappointing showing for Macri in August’s primary election. Bonds across the Argentina complex sold off to distressed levels as investors expressed concerns that Alberto Fernández, the Peronist candidate, would return the Peronist movement back to power. Investors feared market overhauls made by Macri would be undone by Fernández and the Peronist party.

On October 27th, the Peronist movement was voted back into power when Fernández received 48% of the vote. Despite the election result, hedge funds remain invested across the Argentina debt complex with the view that Fernández will not allow Argentina’s bonds to default. It remains to be seen if that will happen, but hedge funds remain long on this distressed credit despite taking a large haircut to their positions in August. These managers have quite the hole to climb out of and only time will tell if they are on the right side of this trade; for those with exposure, all eyes will be on Fernandez and any new policies that arise from his regime that could impact these investments.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Live Videos: 2019 Investment Symposium Presentations

The six flash talks by our research team at Marquette’s 2019 Investment Symposium on October 4th are now available to view on our YouTube channel.

View each talk in the player above — use the upper-right list icon to access a specific presentation.

  • The Investment Case Behind ESG Investing and Implementation in Practice
    Nat Kellogg, CFA, Director of Manager Search
  • Beyond Traditional Real Estate: Exploring Opportunities in Non-Core Real Estate
    Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets
  • So Many Risks, So Little Time: What’s Next in Global Risk?
    Nicole Johnson-Barnes, Research Analyst
  • U.S. Against the World: Should Investors Still Own International Stocks?
    David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities
    Samantha T. Grant, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, U.S. Equities
  • Machine Learning for Investing: How is Artificial Intelligence Being Used in Asset Management?
    Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income
  • Pick Your Portfolio Poison: Recession or Inflation?
    Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Director of Research

Marquette encourages open dialogue with our consultants and research team. For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Luncheon Keynote with Mohamed El-Erian


Excerpts from Mohamed El-Erian’s Keynote Presentation at Marquette’s 2019 Investment Symposium

Mohamed El-Erian is Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council, author of two New York Times bestsellers, and former CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO.

Please contact your consultant or send our marketing team an email for the password to view the excerpts.

A Prism of Capital Market Views: Portfolio Manager Panel

Marquette’s 2019 Investment Symposium opened with a portfolio manager panel hosted by Marquette’s director of research, Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, and featuring:

  • John W. Rogers, Jr., Chairman, Co-CEO & Chief Investment Officer at Ariel Investments
  • Olga Bitel, Partner and Global Strategist at William Blair
  • Matthew J. Eagan, CFA, Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Loomis, Sayles & Company

Third Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

The third quarter saw mixed results for financial markets. Economic fundamentals generally remain strong but signs of deterioration are starting to emerge. Unemployment currently hovers around 3.5%, and inflation is near the Fed’s target of 2%. However, 3Q GDP growth was under 2% (though the 1.9% figure exceeded the 1.7% estimate), and the PMI index has been below 50 since August (a reading under 50 is indicative of contraction in the manufacturing sector). Overall, the most important global trends we see are the following:

  • The U.S.-China trade conflict continues to weigh heavily on both countries as talks remain ongoing;
  • The Federal Reserve (“Fed”) reversed course by cutting interest rates and further cuts are still possible;
  • The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted briefly, which historically has signaled a recession over the subsequent 12–24 months;
  • Brexit negotiations were extended to January 31, 2020, therefore further perpetuating the uncertainty around the UK’s exit from the EU;
  • Negative interest rates continue to grow in prevalence around the world.

The impact of these shifting dynamics is explored further in this newsletter as we review third quarter performance and expectations going forward for each of the major asset classes.

Read > Third Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Hidden Risk Within Passive Small-Cap

The rise of passive investing has been a multi-year trend among investors and currently accounts for nearly half of all assets within U.S. mutual funds and ETFs. The popularity of passive investing is not surprising given that the majority of actively managed funds charge higher fees and struggle to consistently beat their target benchmarks. However, the small-cap segment of the market bears watching, particularly among those investors that are passively invested.

This week’s Chart of the Week shows the percentage of companies over time within the Russell 2000 index that have no earnings. As of September 30, 2019, the percentage of companies within the Russell 2000 index with no earnings stands at 38%. This is one of the highest readings observed in nearly 25 years and is at levels typically not seen outside of recessionary periods.

Consistently strong passive inflows, a low interest rate environment, and general investor preference towards longer duration assets perceived to have recession-resistant, long-term secular growth drivers have helped to support companies with little to no earnings. This trend may eventually reverse and could bode well for active strategies that are structurally underweight this segment of small-cap. Regardless, it is important to acknowledge the growing trend and potential risk within the small-cap space.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

A New “FronTier” in Retirement

Historically, few plan sponsors have emphasized the retention of retirees in plans, but over recent years, plan sponsors have been dedicating more conversations and efforts into doing just that. We’ve seen this trend prove out as progressively more assets over the past three years from participants 65+ are kept in plans, as shown in this week’s chart. Plan sponsors began prioritizing retiree retainment due to a few developments, but most importantly because the large asset balances of retirees can provide better pricing leverage for the plan as a whole. This benefit is mutual in that retirees will likely get better pricing within the plans than they would as individuals.

To better serve retirees, plans are increasingly discussing the “retirement tier” of the DC plan which would consist of products only available to those nearing or at retirement. Products aiming to provide better retirement solutions have expanded notably over the past few years, largely focused on addressing the issue of retirees taking a large lump sum withdrawal at retirement age. Instead, new products allow retirees to receive regular payments ­— similar to paychecks — while the underlying principal (i.e., their “nest egg”) remains invested and grows with the market. Many of these are labeled “retirement income” products and offer retirees better liquidity options that are easy to understand. Typically, the funds target a certain amount of risk in order to distribute a specified percentage of assets — usually 2–5% — to the retiree at regular intervals throughout the year.

While the concept seems simple enough, these products initially faced slow adoption due to several factors including cost, recordkeeping constraints, lack of portability between plans, and lack of regulatory guidance. However, as the industry continues to leverage technology to address these challenges and expand its capabilities, the tool kit is expanding for plan sponsors to provide participants flexibility in their retirement planning; this is particularly important for those near or in retirement which brings an increased dispersion of personal situations, savings, and spending goals. As the DC industry grows in size and in complexity, Marquette will remain abreast of retirement income innovation to better guide plan sponsors as they provide retirement solutions for their participants.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

Central Banks Fight the Threat of Recession

On September 12th, the European Central Bank (“ECB”) — headed by departing President Mario Draghi — passed a major stimulus package fueled by a key interest rate cut and a large bond repurchase program. The ECB deposit facility rate, which is used by banks to make overnight deposits, was lowered 10 basis points to -0.5%, a new record low. The newly approved quantitative easing program is set to begin on November 1st. It will involve the ECB buying over 20 billion euros worth of Eurozone government bonds on a monthly basis with the intention of increasing the money supply, thereby lowering interest rates and encouraging growth.

Though this move by the ECB did not receive unanimous approval by voting members, it was implemented with the hopes of stemming an increased slowdown in Europe and fighting against the threat of recession. One indicator of the Eurozone slowdown has been PMI numbers, which dropped again in September, remaining in contraction territory. This trend began at the start of 2018 with the crossover into negative growth occurring early this year.

Similar though slightly better numbers have been seen in the United States over the past few months, and it is widely expected that the Fed will continue monetary easing by cutting rates one more time in 2019, either at the end of this month or the end of the year. As trade tensions and market uncertainties persist, the ECB, Federal Reserve, and central banks across the world are fighting to maintain growth and avoid a global recession.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Root Cause of Negative Rates

At our annual investment symposium last Friday, we worked through a thought-experiment with keynote speaker Mohamed El-Erian on two points central to the state of our global economy today. The first is that with the furtherance of negative rates in Germany and Japan driven by the global growth slowdown, foreign investors’ continued buying of U.S. Treasuries may eventually cause U.S. rates to go negative. In turn, this could lead to a shift from bonds to stocks and thereby drive up P/E ratios to higher and higher norms. The second is that the global slowdown appears to be very much driven by an aging of the overall population, which includes mounting retirements out of the workforce.

This week’s chart is actually two charts; the first on the left shows the number of people aged 65+ per 100 people of working age, which has grown in leaps and bounds for all developed countries between 1980 and 2015. Japan is especially notable, with 13 people aged 65+ per 100 people of working age in 1980, skyrocketing to 43 people aged 65+ per 100 people of working age in 2015. While data from China and emerging economies are not readily available, we can expect them to follow a similar trend. The second chart on the right shows the share of the U.S. population aged 65+ growing from only 5% in 1910 to 15% today and expected — based on actual birth rates — to reach 20% and 25% in the next few decades.

Certainly, this evolution of workforces will be a focus point going forward, and as more baby boomers exit the workforce, their productivity will need to be replaced to maintain current economic growth rates. Whether that comes from technological innovation or simply an influx of workers bears watching and will no doubt help shape the economic growth narrative in the future.

Print PDF > The Root Cause of Negative Rates

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Growing Appeal of Co-Investment Funds

Co-investment funds are becoming an increasingly attractive area of deployment within private equity programs. The number of dedicated co-investment vehicles has risen dramatically over the past decade as many fund-of-funds managers have looked for product expansion and have responded to investor demand.

Co-investment vehicles provide investors the ability to provide additional capital — alongside and aligned with private equity managers ­— at a significantly reduced fee (less than traditional private equity investing) and with quicker deployment (mitigating much of the j-curve). These factors have contributed to the higher net returns recorded by dedicated co-investment funds over this past decade.

As seen in the charts above, these dedicated co-investment funds have outperformed the broader private equity fund performance with a higher median net IRR of 18.9% (430 bps of outperformance over Preqin’s direct private equity median net IRR) and with 80% outperforming their median PE performance within their respective vintage years (2009–2016). We believe this past decade has really proven out many of these teams and strategies and that proven managers with strong and repeatable selection processes should continue to outperform private equity benchmarks in nearly all vintages throughout a full economic cycle.

We encourage investors to continue to allocate to these dedicated co-investment funds as an important allocation within their private equity programs. However, we caution investors must be selective as there is a very wide range of skill, sourcing, alignment, and access differential between managers within this area of the market.

Print PDF > The Growing Appeal of Co-Investment Funds

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.