Services Tags: Investment Consulting

The Debt and Deficit Dilemma

The new year brings a new political administration with fresh approaches and drastically different perspectives on topics ranging from immigration to foreign policy. As the Biden era exits and another Trump era begins, federal spending and the deficit persists. Borrowing began with financing the Revolutionary War, and it is as American as baseball and apple pie. The national debt clock in Manhattan has a massive figure of over $36 trillion that is owed by the government to holders of Treasuries. Talks of the deficit and debt ceiling emerge every year and politicians put off the issue rather than finding ways to reduce borrowing by increasing taxes and/or reducing spending. Will there ever be any repercussions to running such a high deficit?

While you will never see an explicit bill from the government with your family’s share due, there is a limit to the amount the U.S. can borrow without any consequences. This paper will give the reader an anatomy of the deficit and debt, consequences of running such a high deficit, and summary of the high-level solutions that have been proposed.

Greg Leonberger Speaking at Titan Investors 2025 Chicago Due Diligence Retreat 8/26

On Tuesday, August 26, Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA will be speaking at Titan Investors’ 4th Annual Chicago Due Diligence Retreat.

Greg will be moderating a panel entitled, “Outlook on Global Markets,” described as follows: While inflation, growth, valuations, interest rates, and credit spreads are all top of mind, where can investors look for the best risk-adjusted returns? How should RIAs view Public and Private markets for their clients’ portfolios? What factors should be considered during portfolio construction?

Titan Investors is a boutique consulting firm that connects asset allocators and investment managers to share ideas, build relationships, and drive business in a focused environment. For more information, visit their website.

New Year, New President…Same Outlook?

From an investor’s perspective, the current environment feels lot like it did twelve months ago: U.S. equity markets returned over 20% the prior year, fixed income is (still) offering attractive yields, and overall portfolio performance was positive for most programs. Nevertheless, nothing lasts forever and sentiment can shift on a dime. It is also likely that some of President Trump’s policies will have an impact on markets, with the specific impact varying by the policy and asset class.

In this edition:

  • U.S. Economy and Policy Expectations
  • Fixed Income: “If you liked it last year, you’ll like it this year”
  • U.S. Equity: Concentration risk still looms
  • Non-U.S. Equities: Positive earnings outlook, policy uncertainty
  • Real Assets: Real estate bottoms, infrastructure demand robust
  • Private Markets: Private equity on the rebound, private credit still compelling

2025 Market Preview Video

This video is a recording of a live webinar held January 16 by Marquette’s research team analyzing 2024 across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring in 2025.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
James Torgerson, Research Analyst
Catherine Hillier, Senior Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Michael Carlton, Research Analyst
Chad Sheaffer, CFA, CAIA Senior Research Analyst

Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.

If you have any questions, please send our team an email.

Multi-Asset Credit: Taking Offense From Good to Great

Before the football season began, we authored a white paper that detailed offensive and defensive elements of a fixed income portfolio. For most investors, an aggregate (core) mandate provides defense while strategic allocations to high yield, senior secured loans, and emerging market debt (EMD) are the primary sources of offense. Relative to an aggregate benchmark, this structure has outperformed over market cycles. However, just as championship teams adjust and innovate throughout a season, so too should an investor’s portfolio.

Multi-Asset Credit (MAC) strategies are single portfolios that dynamically allocate across a broad range of global credit markets to provide higher levels of income and a diversity of fixed income exposures. These mandates can serve as a single-solution credit allocation or as a credit alpha overlay in the context of a broader credit portfolio. There is no perfect definition of MAC, but what they do offer is diversification, flexibility, and ease of access and operations. While these markets are not new, investors may be unfamiliar with the mechanics of a MAC strategy and its potential benefits.

This newsletter provides an overview of MAC, including the opportunity set, allocation structure and considerations, diversification benefits, and sample MAC manager performance.

Sam Frymier Speaking at NCPERS 2025 Annual Conference & Exhibition 5/19

On Monday, May 19, Sam Frymier will be speaking at the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems’ (NCPERS) 2025 Annual Conference & Exhibition in Denver.

Sam will be moderating a breakout session panel entitled, “A Real Estate Investor’s Toolkit for Investing in a New Cycle,” with several investment professionals.

The National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems (NCPERS) is the largest trade association for public sector pension funds, representing approximately 500 funds throughout the United States and Canada. At the Annual Conference, attendees will explore the most pressing challenges facing public pensions and gain actionable insights to navigate them effectively For more information, please visit the event webpage.

The Market Doesn’t Care

With the election less than two weeks away, polls indicate a very tight race not only for president but for control of the House and Senate as well. Given that margins in some of the swing states are likely to be razor thin, final election results will not be determined until several days after November 5th. There is no debate that the candidates and their expected policies are vastly different, but as investors, should we care who wins? Does the market care?

In this edition, we examine a variety of historical data cuts to determine what market impacts might be expected based on the outcomes of this year’s elections.

3Q 2024 Market Insights

This video is a recording of a live webinar held October 23 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the third quarter of 2024 across the economy and various asset classes and themes we’ll be monitoring over the remainder of the year.

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.

If you have any questions, please send our team an email.

Marquette Views on Trade War, Recession Risk Featured on FundFire

Published April 29, Director of Research and Partner Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA was interviewed for FundFire’s “Consultants Tell Investors to Brace for Trade War, Potential Recession” article (subscription required).

Greg discussed the near-term uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariff announcements, highlighting the importance of diversification in constructing a portfolio that is durable to an economic downturn before it happens and not attempting to adjust in the midst of volatility.

For more Marquette coverage of these topics, reference our recent webinar, 1Q 2025 Market Insights and Greg’s quarterly letter, Bracing for Stagflation.

Are You Ready for Some Fixed Income?

As the leaves change to autumn and the authors cheer on their Fighting Leathernecks, fall is the perfect time for investors to reassess their fixed income portfolios. Fixed income is a hybrid security that offers both offensive and defensive properties. Much like a good football team, a fixed income portfolio needs to combine a strong offense with a solid defense.

Some strategies provide more offensive characteristics while others are more defensive. Portfolios with too much offense act like the Greatest Show on Turf. They do well when the economy is strong, but falter in down markets. Conversely, a fixed income portfolio that is overly reliant on defensive strategies will do well in a risk-off environment but will struggle in a strong economy like the Super Bowl Shufflin’ ’85 Bears.

While those were great teams, they were not a dynasty that stood up to the test of time. To build an all-weather fixed income portfolio that will perform in multiple market environments, an investor needs to balance offense and defense.
Fixed income has three primary objectives: income, diversification, and liquidity. Income, or yield, is what an investor is paid for loaning money to another entity. Fixed income helps to diversify portfolios primarily through duration. When risk assets are selling off, interest rates are generally falling. Duration is what drives fixed income prices higher in such scenarios. Finally, fixed income assets can be a source of liquidity. The weight of these qualities is dependent on if the strategy is more offensive- or defensive-minded.

This white paper outlines offensive and defensive fixed income characteristics and strategies and considerations for investors when building a “gameplan” for their fixed income allocation.