2022 Halftime Market Insights Video

This video is a recording of a live webinar held July 20th by Marquette’s research team, featuring in-depth analysis of the first half of 2022 and risks and opportunities to monitor in the coming months.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

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The Business Cycle Diaries

Even the casual observer of market dynamics is likely aware that the world economy appears to be on uneven footing. Elevated price levels, increasingly restrictive monetary policy, and geopolitical turmoil have plagued securities markets during the first half of the year and are now dampening expectations for global GDP growth going forward. Given this myriad of macroeconomic challenges, many investors are now assessing the possibility of a prolonged slowdown in economic activity for both the United States and the rest of the world.

The aim of this newsletter is to gauge the extent to which the global economy is at risk of such a downturn by examining the state of the current domestic business cycle, inferring its likely next stage, and reviewing which asset classes and investing styles tend to be the most attractive during each phase of the cycle.

Read > The Business Cycle Diaries

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Can Bond Investors Outsmart the Market?

While it is generally accepted that successfully and consistently timing the equity market is a loser’s bet, the same sentiment is not heard as often in the bond market. However, timing interest rates is just as difficult as equity markets and can lead to the same patterns of underperformance over multiple market cycles. Nonetheless, the recent rate volatility may be a temptation to shorten duration in anticipation of further rate rises. The following analysis examines why this strategy could be difficult to execute successfully, and why we recommend that clients stay the course and remain invested in line with their investment policies.

Read > Can Bond Investors Outsmart the Market?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Flirting With a Bear Market: How Did We Get Here, and What Comes Next?

Quite simply, this has been the worst start to a year since the 1930s:

  • One of only 19 quarters since 1976 when both bonds and stocks posted negative returns;
  • One of only six of those quarters when bonds have underperformed stocks;
  • The worst four-month return for the S&P 500 since 1939.

2022 to date has featured a myriad of macroeconomic factors coming to a head: inflation at its highest level since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve responding with aggressive rate hikes, and increasing concerns about the health of the consumer leading to a possible recession. An evolving pandemic, a war in Eastern Europe, and draconian lockdown policies in the world’s second-largest economy and largest manufacturing hub have further added to the problem and complicated the solution. With these macro headwinds and uncertainties driving markets year-to-date, Marquette’s fixed income, U.S. equities, and non-U.S. equities teams discuss the impacts on their asset classes and weigh in on the outlook from here.

Read > Flirting With a Bear Market: How Did We Get Here and What Comes Next?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Q1 2022 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the first quarter’s performance by Marquette’s research team, reviewing general themes from the quarter and risks and opportunities to monitor in the coming months.

 Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

Sign up for research alerts to be notified when we publish new videos here.
For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Low Volatility: Factor or Fad?

The beginning of 2022 represented a change of pace for equity investors, as increased geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty drove the S&P 500 to its first negative quarter in two years. In light of recent performance trends and the potential for continued asset price fluctuation, market participants may be interested in assessing the viability of strategies with lower risk profiles that still offer the potential for long-term gains similar to those of the S&P 500. One such strategy is low volatility equity investing. Though it has fallen somewhat out of favor in recent years, low volatility is a generally accepted risk premia factor (akin to value, size, quality, etc.), meaning investors can theoretically expect to earn excess returns by allocating to lower volatility equities over the long run. This newsletter seeks to understand the rationale and evidence for this premium, explain recent performance of low volatility stocks, and examine the prospects of the style going forward.

Read > Low Volatility: Factor or Fad?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

OCIO Momentum Continues

One of the most significant evolutions in our business over the last decade has been the growth of our Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (“OCIO”) services platform. What at first seemed like chance requests over a decade ago from a handful of clients looking for additional help managing their portfolios has become increasingly mainstream. More than half of our prospective client engagements last year inquired about OCIO services. Our experience is certainly reflective of a broader industry trend as OCIO assets under management have grown from $90 billion to an estimated $2.7 trillion over the last fifteen years.¹ Given the industry growth and increased interest in OCIO services from our client base, we thought we’d share our experience as to why institutions are asking about OCIO and what the major challenges are that Marquette has helped these clients solve.

Read > OCIO Momentum Continues

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Marquette Speaking at OCIO Central Summit 3/23

On Wednesday, March 23rd,  Marquette will be speaking at the OCIO Central Summit hosted by Portfolio Summits in Chicago.

Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, will be joining a panel entitled, “Focus on Alternative Investments,” covering how alternatives strategies have shifted with the debt-fueled expansion of the market. Panelists will discuss alternative investment strategies in PE, venture capital, buyouts, hedge funds, commodities, derivatives, and real estate, and consider updated regulatory issues post pandemic.

The OCIO Central Summit brings together 150+ Outsourced Chief Investment Officers (OCIOs) and institutional consultants based across Illinois and the surrounding states for a day of panel discussions, presentations, Q&A, and networking. For more information, visit the Portfolio Summits event webpage.

Life During Wartime: Assessing the Market Impact of the Russia/Ukraine Conflict

Recent days have seen an escalation of political tensions in Eastern Europe, and on February 24th, Russian forces began conducting large-scale military operations in Ukraine. These actions have drawn widespread condemnation from the international community, with NATO repositioning troops along its eastern flank and both the United States and European Union announcing intentions to impose sanctions on a variety of Russian financial institutions. The conflict has also threatened the stability of global markets, particularly those areas of the world economy that are most sensitive to energy and the performance of emerging market countries. The aim of this newsletter is to assess the ramifications of Russian actions vis-à-vis the broad market and determine the potential implications of further escalation of the conflict going forward, including:

  • Equity index performance
  • Index exposure to Russia and Ukraine
  • Commodity market expectations
  • Central bank policy and inflation impacts
  • Historical impact of similar exogenous shocks on equities

Read > Life During Wartime: Assessing the Market Impact of the Russia/Ukraine Conflict

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Nat Kellogg Speaking at OCIO Central Summit 3/23

On Wednesday, March 23rd, Nat Kellogg, CFA will be speaking at the OCIO Central Summit hosted by Portfolio Summits in Chicago.

Nat will be joining a session entitled, “Manager Selection Roundtable,” with several industry professionals. Panelists will discuss the challenging process of manager selection and what investors should consider when making decisions, including how to identify competitive advantages and how to evaluate which managers will best fit their institution’s needs.

The OCIO Central Summit brings together 150+ Outsourced Chief Investment Officers (OCIOs) and institutional consultants based across Illinois and the surrounding states for a day of panel discussions, presentations, Q&A, and networking. For more information, visit the Portfolio Summits event webpage.