Topic Tags: U.S. Equity

Can TIPS Be an Effective Inflation Hedge for Portfolios?

With the COVID vaccine’s worldwide distribution and adoption starting last week, many investors are aiming to project an inflation outlook driven by the return of furloughed workers and impending economic recovery and adjust portfolios with inflation protection in mind.

In this newsletter, we examine how key asset classes in institutional portfolios behave in rising or declining inflation environments, and ultimately determine the best asset classes that serve as inflation hedges while also providing strong total return and efficiency ratios. In particular, we investigate if TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) offer superior inflation protection compared to other common portfolio constituents.

Read > Can TIPS Be an Effective Inflation Hedge for Portfolios?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Market Recovery: Superpower Showdown

Despite the enormous challenges of 2020, financial markets have rebounded. While baffling at face value, the contrast between market performance and the widespread suffering due to COVID-19 is more understandable in the context of markets as a representation of human ingenuity and resiliency. These two traits are perhaps most recognized in the world’s foremost economic superpowers: The United States and the People’s Republic of China. During the third week of March, both countries saw market drawdowns near 30%; most other equity indices across the world saw similar drops. Since the global market bottom, countries have been racing to make up these losses and charge ahead to new highs. As of December 11th, America’s recovery has been nearly a third stronger than China’s. Globally, the recovery has fallen in between these two world powers.

A dollar invested in American public equities on March 23rd would have grown to $1.72 as of last Friday, December 11th, as represented by the Russell 3000 (representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market¹). Over this same time span, a dollar invested in China would have driven an increase to $1.54, as represented by the MSCI China Index. This broad market index captures 85% of China’s equity universe and includes the variety of share classes available to both strictly domestic Chinese investors as well as foreign investors.² However, America’s strength in capital markets recovery does not reflect the country’s relative success in managing the virus. In the U.S., the fight drags on, while much of China has returned to business as usual.³ Broadly, capital markets as measured by the All Country World Index (ACWI) — which contains 85% of the global equity markets, including 23 developed countries and 26 developing countries² — has rebounded at a clip between that of the U.S. and China. The good news for investors is that equity markets — regardless of home country — have rebounded from the extreme drops seen in March and April.

As detailed in our previous Chart of the Week, “Main Street Won’t Look Like Wall Street for a While,” the real-world experience of many Americans is one of continued economic hardship. While this desperate situation may soon be addressed with additional stimulus, Americans and people around the globe can also find hope in the fact that markets are forward-looking and humans, by nature, are resilient and resourceful. As a testament to this, one needs to look no further than the rollout of the highly anticipated and historic COVID-19 vaccine, which saw its first doses administered in the U.S on Monday.⁴ The extreme market volatility and large sell-off early in the year and subsequent recovery have further underscored why a long-term investment perspective rooted in a fundamental confidence in continual technological and economic progress is the most effective mindset an investor can have.

Print PDF > Market Recovery: Superpower Showdown

¹ FTSE Russell
² MSCI
³ China is back to normal — the US and Europe are not. Here’s how it succeeded
⁴ First Covid-19 Vaccine Given to U.S. Public

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Main Street Won’t Look Like Wall Street for a While

The month of November is often a positive one for equity markets, with the S&P 500 Index posting positive returns 62% of the time, and November 2020 was surely one for the record books. The Dow Jones Index, designed to serve as a proxy for the health of the broader U.S. economy, posted its best monthly return since 1987. Smaller companies also rallied in November as the Russell 2000 Index, which tracks U.S. small-capitalization stocks, set its first record high since 2018 and posted its strongest monthly return ever. That said, a stark contrast emerges when these milestones are viewed beside other economic indicators, particularly unemployment.

Down 54.4% from the April 2020 peak, U.S. national unemployment came in at 6.7% for November. This is exceptionally positive news considering the recent figure is only 0.6% above its 15-year average. However, this aggregated unemployment measure does not highlight the significant disparity plaguing the broader employment landscape.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the labor market can be divided into 22 unique occupation groups, many of which have been hit harder by the COVID-19-induced recession than others. For example — and perhaps not surprisingly — the four groups most affected by the pandemic include those on the frontlines of human interaction, such as Personal Care & Service, Food Preparation & Serving, Transport & Material Moving, and Building Grounds & Cleaning. While it is clear from the chart that these occupations tend to have a slightly higher rate of unemployment than the national figure, the average November unemployment rate for these groups was a significant 10.7%, coming in 4% higher than the current national level and 2.9% higher than the long-term average of the same groups. Conversely, occupation groups including Healthcare Practitioners, Legal, Computer & Mathematical, and Architecture & Engineering have escaped COVID-19 largely unscathed. These groups posted an average rate of 2.4% unemployment in November, which is 4.4% below the current national level and, in fact, 0.2% lower than their own long-term average. The gravity of this disparity takes on new meaning when viewed through the lens of workforce concentration and wealth generation. The least affected occupation groups employ 11.6% of the workforce, while the most affected groups have nearly double the employee base, at 23.0%. To make matters worse, this larger workforce earns substantially less than their COVID-sheltered peers. According to 2019 data, the most affected groups earned a median annual income of $27,800, which is just over the poverty line for a family of four and $12,000 less than the median income for all occupation groups. On the other hand, for those occupation groups nearing full employment, the median worker earned an annual income of $79,900 in 2019, more than two times the national median.

Ultimately, no two recessions are the same, but perspective can be gleaned by looking to the past. Since 1950, the average U.S. unemployment rate has been a low 5.8%, despite 10 unique bear market corrections during that time. However, the subsequent decline from a spike in unemployment can be slow and long. Looking back to the Global Financial Crisis, U.S. unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009 and took just over six years to recover back to pre-crisis levels. However, unlike other recessions we have seen in recent memory, this one seems to have a discernible cure: a COVID-19 vaccine. With national distribution beginning before the end of the year, many analysts are expecting the economy to return to ‘normal’ by mid-2021. An unprecedented level of stimulus has already been injected into the economy and an additional highly anticipated package expected to arrive early next year are added reasons for optimism. Taken together, there is hope that current unemployment figures will revert to typical levels at a pace not seen in history.

Print PDF > Main Street Won’t Look Like Wall Street for a While

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Is Growth Conceding?

The market’s continued rally following the U.S. election has been a welcome relief, even more so for value investors. Since major media outlets called the presidential race for now President-elect Biden on November 7th, the Russell 1000 Value Index has outperformed the Russell 1000 Growth Index by 6.6%, and at one point by more than 10%. It has been the strongest value run since the dot-com bubble burst in 2001. The Monday following the result, November 9th, was the best single day for value over growth ever.

Presidential elections and other regime changes can often spark a rotation within the market. In this case, in addition to expectations for additional stimulus post the election, the delayed election results lined up with Pfizer’s announcement — and the peer announcements that followed — that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective. Stocks generally, but in particular, more cyclical businesses and industries most impacted by the pandemic, rallied and have continued to gain momentum. Banks are up 20% and Energy stocks more than 30%. Technology and Healthcare have lagged despite the Republican gains in Congress that subsequently reduced the risk of sweeping regulatory changes.

The question now is whether value can maintain this momentum. Interestingly, the move is reminiscent of the period following the 2016 election. From the election on November 8th, 2016 to a peak in mid-December, value had outpaced growth by 5%. Financials, along with Energy and Basic Materials, led at that point as well, though for different reasons, set to benefit from expected regulatory rollbacks, tax cuts, and protectionist trade policies. Technology unsurprisingly lagged following Trump’s attacks on Tech bellwethers throughout his campaign. But the high expectations fizzled as Trump’s agenda hit roadblocks. In 2016, value’s advantage lasted roughly a month, with growth back on top by mid-March 2017. Only time will tell how market dynamics will play out this time. Relative to growth, value is trading at some of the most attractive valuations ever. But several of the same trends that led to growth’s dominance over the last decade, and certainly this year, are also arguably stronger than ever.

Print PDF > Is Growth Conceding?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

What Does the Biden Win Mean for Financial Markets?

On Saturday, November 7th, Joe Biden was declared the winner of the presidential election and will become the 46th president of the United States in January. Markets were surprisingly positive last week despite the uncertainty around results as multiple states were too close to call until all the votes had been tallied. While there is still pending litigation in certain states, it seems highly unlikely that these actions will reverse the election result. Thus, market participants have turned their attention to what the market can expect from a Biden-led White House coupled with a split Congress, while the coronavirus pandemic marches on.

In this newsletter, we tackle this question for each of the “traditional” asset classes: Fixed Income, U.S. Equities, and Non-U.S. Equities. The impact on alternative asset classes such as hedge funds, real assets, and private equity are more nuanced and will be covered in our 2021 market preview to be released in January.

Read > What Does the Biden Win Mean for Financial Markets?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Equities Falter Amid Uncertainty

October has been a tale of two months for equity market participants. While the first half of the month saw solid performance from risk assets, major equity indices have struggled in recent days as investors continue to grapple with political, economic, and public health uncertainty.

In this newsletter, we put the recent volatility and pullback into context, with an update on the resurgence of new coronavirus cases and global responses to the pandemic and a look at expectations for the coming months.

Read > Equities Falter Amid Uncertainty

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Third Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

The third quarter of 2020 featured a major rebound in economic data amid an intense battle for the presidency and an uncertain future for COVID-19 cases as some states are seeing higher positivity rates. GDP growth for the quarter is expected to come in at +35.2% YoY, higher than analyst expectations, which helped to propel equity markets higher during the quarter. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.9% but is expected to remain elevated until additional clarity regarding COVID-19 becomes available. Below are some highlights from the quarter:

  • Biden is favored over Trump in the election race, as mail-in ballots and virtual town halls instead of debates have proven that this election will be unlike any before it.
  • The country has widely reopened, though concerns in some larger states of increased positivity rates have caused some rollbacks ahead of the winter season.
  • A vaccine is in the works and anticipated to be ready by April 2021, with widespread vaccinations likely around mid-2021.
  • Schools have moved to a hybrid model of in-person and online classes, causing logistical problems for parents as many balance jobs and at-home learning.

The election is sure to bring additional volatility through the end of the year. Biden and Trump have vastly different tax plans and a Democratic sweep could drive a sell-off in equity markets. Economic data is still pending through 3Q, though most forecasts show large rebounds in data as states reopened from COVID-19 closures. Big questions regarding vaccines and if the winter will see a resurgence in coronavirus cases remain. We analyze what all of this means for each asset class in the remainder of this newsletter.

Read > Third Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Q3 2020 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the third quarter’s performance, coinciding with our 3Q Asset Allocation Update newsletter reviewing risks and opportunities heading into the final quarter of the year.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

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For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

ESG AUM Continues to Grow

Over the past five years, there has been a substantial increase in assets under management (“AUM”) for ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) mandated funds, as investors are placing greater emphasis on environmental and social issues while realizing that performance is not a tradeoff for sustainable investments. Since 2015, there has been a 147.5% increase in AUM for ESG-mandated funds, specifically looking at U.S. Equity, U.S. Fixed Income, Global Equity, and Global Fixed Income.

Going forward, we expect to see a larger increase in ESG investing as the COVID crisis further unfolds against the backdrop of other significant environmental and social issues. The recent inflows into ESG funds are a combination of new funds and the restructuring of old non-ESG funds. During the first half of 2020, over 20 new ESG funds have been launched in the U.S., making it the sixth consecutive year of 20+ new launches, and the U.S. is expected to set a new record by the end of the year. Clearly this is a trend that is gaining momentum across the investment universe and bears watching in future years. For more information on sustainable investing, reference our Sustainable Investing Video Series.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Can Real Assets Help Protect Portfolios from Inflation?

Against the current backdrop of unprecedented monetary stimulus, investors have become increasingly wary of future inflation and its potential degenerative effect on portfolio returns. While deflationary pressures appear more likely in the near term, the COVID-driven stimulus packages have created the potential for inflation once the pandemic has subsided. Predictably, investors are contemplating which asset classes can help hedge inflationary risk and real assets are a natural asset class to offset this risk.

During periods of upward price pressure, both real estate and infrastructure funds have at least some degree of pricing power, meaning they can boost rental income and revenue streams from their underlying holdings. In some cases, the embedded lease and contractual agreements of these holdings are linked to an inflation index, particularly for infrastructure. Therefore, the incomes of such holdings will rise as inflation rises and thus unlike fixed rate bonds, the real rate of return will not be eroded.

In order to examine this hypothesis, we compared traditional asset classes — stocks and bonds — to the real assets mentioned above: real estate and infrastructure. We compared cumulative returns during periods of above average inflation and during positive inflation surprises.¹ Although data is limited for real assets (particularly infrastructure), we analyzed cumulative returns for these four asset classes back to the earliest common date of index inception. Since the 2006 inception of the FTSE core infrastructure index, both real estate and infrastructure assets significantly outperformed U.S. equities and bonds during all periods when U.S. CPI rose above the period’s historical YOY average (1.9%). And during all quarters over the same period when developed world inflation experienced a material positive shock (“positive inflation surprises” defined previously), real assets also significantly outperformed both bonds and equities. Thus, while we have only experienced marginal inflationary pressure over the past 15 years, the data indicates that the inflation hedging mechanisms of real estate and infrastructure assets have been effective in protecting the purchasing power of portfolios. While it is difficult to forecast the ultimate timing, duration, and magnitude of inflation from this point forward, it is clear that real assets should offer a degree of insulation from the adverse effects of inflation.

Print PDF > Can Real Assets Help Protect Portfolios from Inflation?

¹ Surprises to developed world inflation are defined as periods where the expectations to the GDP weighted CPIs of the U.S., UK, and EU were below the actual CPI level by more than 10 bps.

 

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.