cvernon, Author at Marquette Associates

Signs of a Market Bottom?

In just a matter of weeks, U.S. equities went from all-time highs to bear market correction territory. As of March 20th, the S&P 500 had a drawdown of -31.9% from its February 19th high. Following the steep sell-off, equities subsequently rallied the week of March 23rd, logging weekly gains that were among their best in history. With equities having officially fallen into correction territory then subsequently appearing to show signs of stabilization and fiscal/monetary stimulus poised to (theoretically) cushion the impact of COVID-19, investors are left to wonder if the worst is over.

However, identifying market bottoms is a difficult endeavor. Every bear market is unique and this one is no different. Based on the severity of economic contraction thus far, it is likely that we are headed for — or possibly already in — a recession. Notably, though, not all bear markets coincide with a recession and not all recessions coincide with a bear market. Given that a recession is looming if not already here, we examined the last 40 years of data when bear markets coincided with recessions to see if we can identify signs of a bottom. Over the past 40 years, there were four such periods: 1973–1975, 1981–1982, 2000–2001, and 2007–2009. In the following newsletter, we review four categories of data over these time periods: technical, valuation, economic, and COVID-19 to see if we can identify consistent indicators of a market bottom.

Read > Signs of a Market Bottom?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Another Unprecedented Surge in Initial Weekly Jobless Claims Due to COVID-19

As mentioned in last week’s chart, the number of Americans filing for unemployment over the past few weeks overwhelmed the system and created a backlog of claims that were unable to be processed right away. This week’s data updates that picture and shows another colossal jump in claims: over 6 million people filed for unemployment last week.

In this chart, we focus on 2020 data to show the scale of these numbers. Claims between the week of March 23rd and the week of March 16th more than doubled, and the jump from 2020’s weekly average before the pandemic set in to last week is more than 30 times higher.

The data from last week shows that the backlog of claims had an overwhelming effect. Businesses have been suffering and this has caused unemployment numbers over the past two weeks alone to total nearly 10 million Americans. As companies continue to lay off Americans as a result of stay-at-home orders and COVID-19 concerns, the initial unemployment claims have skyrocketed. Congress also passed a stimulus package that increased the incentive for people to see the process of filing for unemployment through, including unemployment benefit extensions and expansions in paid benefits. With the projected timeline for when businesses will be able to re-open being pushed further and further out, the hope is that COVID-19 cases will slow and companies will be able to take full advantage of increased consumer demand.

Print PDF > Another Unprecedented Surge in Initial Weekly Jobless Claims Due to COVID-19

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

With March officially in the books, the following is a brief summary of what has transpired in the capital markets since our update early last week. As expected, the coronavirus has exploded across the U.S. and continued its spread across Europe as well. At the time of writing, the number of cases is approaching 1 million worldwide and has exceeded 200,000 here in the United States. Stocks finished their worst quarter ever on Tuesday and volatility continues to haunt the markets. While the worst may still not yet be behind us, we hope that the growing number of shelter in place edicts and more consistent social distancing may help to stem the coronavirus outbreak across the world. Please note that all return data in the following discussion utilizes the quarter end date of March 31st, 2020.

Read > April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

What Does the Coronavirus Pandemic Mean for Future Real Estate Returns?

This week’s chart examines forward-looking returns for private real estate based on historical spreads to the 10-Year Treasury Yield and the NCREIF-ODCE Index (proxy for core private real estate). Real estate valuations (spread-to-Treasuries) are currently above 300 bps as a result of COVID-19. Spreads of this magnitude have only been seen four times, each of which has been followed by strong 3- and 5-year returns. For example, during the Global Financial Crisis, real estate spreads-to-Treasuries surpassed 300 bps in the fourth quarter of 2009 which were followed by 12.2% and 12.4% returns for the NCREIF-ODCE Index in the subsequent 3 and 5-year periods, respectively.

Though the impacts from COVID-19 have not yet been fully felt in the private real estate market, it is clear that challenges lie ahead, particularly in the sectors that have been hit the hardest. For example, assets with short lease durations and heavier operating business components, such as hospitality (daily), and co-working office (monthly), as well as assets that rely on foot traffic, such as entertainment, food & beverage, and destination retail will be more affected by the pandemic. Further complicating matters, the lack of transaction volume, comparable sales, leases, and loan originations have made it nearly impossible for appraisers to adjust valuations at this point in time.

Beyond the aforementioned troubled sectors, the impacts from COVID-19 will ultimately vary by property type, geography, and risk profile. The following table highlights the potential near-term and long-term impacts of each property sector:

While global growth is being impacted in the near-term, we still expect a recovery to take hold once the disruption fades; we still maintain the view that the recovery is delayed, not derailed. However, the true impact of this on real estate returns will not be known for a while. Although longer-term forward-looking returns appear promising at this point, there is a relatively high degree of uncertainty because the ultimate impact on the aforementioned sectors (which should be the biggest headwind for real estate) will remain unknown until the coronavirus outbreak is contained and the economy begins to function at a normal level again.

Print PDF > What Does the Coronavirus Pandemic Mean for Future Real Estate Returns?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act

In the early hours of March 25th, the Senate and the Trump administration reached a deal on the $2 trillion stimulus package aimed at cushioning the fall for U.S. businesses and consumers in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The bill was approved by the Senate late on March 25th, passed through the House on March 27th, and was signed by Trump the afternoon of March 27th. The size of the package is over 9% of the U.S. GDP and is greater than the three major relief packages passed during the 2008 crisis combined.

This legislative update summarizes the key elements of the CARES Act and concludes with an assessment of the expected impact of this stimulus package.

Read > The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Initial Weekly Jobless Claims Surge Due to COVID-19

This special second edition Chart of the Week shows weekly initial jobless claims going back to 2007. Last week’s number came in at an unprecedented 3.3 million people, a near 12x increase from the previous week and 5x the previous largest jump in unemployment. Perhaps more alarming is that this number might not tell the whole story of the unemployment picture.

Ten states saw more than 100,000 people file for unemployment this week; however, due to low staffing and budgets, many claims could not be properly processed and included in the data. Granted, the number is likely higher as multiple states — Illinois included — have issued a stay-at-home order for non-essential employees due to COVID-19. The restaurant, airline, retail, and hotel industries have been hit especially hard with many Americans depending on a stimulus package to tide them over until the virus can be effectively tamed. Many small businesses have been forced to let employees go as they have been unable to generate cash flow.

On a more positive note, Amazon, CVS, and Walmart have been looking to hire thousands of employees as they receive increased demand from customers looking to purchase more goods as a result of being at home. If the virus is contained, the hope is that jobs will pick back up and companies will re-hire relatively quickly, though the question on when that might happen is one that is yet to be answered.

Print PDF > Initial Weekly Jobless Claims Surge Due to COVID-19

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

No Reservations

This week’s chart examines the demand for restaurant reservations, both in the U.S. and across the globe, measured by reservation booking activity on OpenTable, a service that allows users to book restaurant reservations online or through its app. Overall reservation booking activity started to slow noticeably at the beginning of March and then cratered as state after state closed schools, urged citizens to work from home, and then eventually closed all restaurants and bars for dine-in service. This is a compelling “real-time” indication of the scope and scale of the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus.

While restaurants are only one small piece of the economy, they are an excellent gauge of discretionary consumer spending and provide employment to over 14 million restaurant workers across the United States. Although OpenTable’s largest market is here in the U.S., their data also indicates a similarly severe slowdown in global activity. The longer quarantines across the country (and around the globe) last, the more painful the effects on the restaurant industry, and the broader U.S. economy, will be.

Print PDF > No Reservations

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

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