International investment strategies such as emerging markets debt and unconstrained fixed income have seen significant volatility over the last few years, largely driven by gains or losses from currency movements. Over this period, the U.S. dollar generally strengthened due to gradually rising interest rates and stronger growth in the U.S. relative to other developed countries. The euro and yen generally declined versus the dollar during this time but experienced bouts of short term strengthening versus the dollar. Emerging markets currencies largely weakened throughout this period, but enjoyed a substantial rally over the past year. How does an investor make sense of these movements?
Topic Tags: Currency
Mexican Peso Tumbles in Wake of Election Results
The chart of the week shows the performance of the Mexican Peso from November 8th through the 10th. The Peso served as a barometer of sorts throughout the U.S. Presidential campaign, as Donald Trump had pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and stop illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.S./Mexican border.
The chart of the week shows the performance of the Mexican Peso from November 8th through the 10th. The Peso served as a barometer of sorts throughout the U.S. presidential campaign, as Donald Trump had pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and stop illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.S./Mexican border. On Election Day, the Peso hit a high of $0.055 (1 Peso can buy 0.055 USD) at 7PM ET and quickly sold off as it became increasingly clear that Hilary Clinton was struggling to win key swing states. The Peso hit a low of $0.048 at 11pm ET as more polling data came through showing Donald Trump was leading and a Clinton victory would be harder to pull off. The Peso bounced slightly higher following a gracious acceptance speech from President-elect Trump but still remains near its lows as details about his NAFTA and wall plans have still not been announced. Trump’s policies regarding NAFTA and immigration will be critical to watch, as the volatility we saw with the Peso this week underscores how Mexican stocks could be materially impacted by changes to current policy. Such movement also reinforces the importance of diversification across countries when investing in global equities.
The Impact of Trump’s Victory on Capital Markets
November 2016
To the surprise of pollsters, analysts, and much of the American public, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump trampled predictions by winning the presidential election in stunning fashion.
The long-term impact of Trump’s presidency on financial markets is impossible to predict at this point, given the amount of uncertainty around his expected policies. However, the short-term dynamics surrounding his election win are starting to emerge, and we share with you what we are seeing and hearing in the market in this newsletter.
Equity Returns Post Brexit
The United Kingdom’s (UK) vote to leave the European Union on June 23 was an unprecedented event that impacted markets across around the world. While this exit won’t actually take place for another two years, equities sold off in a knee-jerk fashion as investors feared the ramifications on the global economy. Due to the heavy exposure to Europe, non-U.S. developed markets suffered the most, losing nearly 10% before rebounding.
The United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union on June 23rd was an unprecedented event that impacted markets around the world. While this exit won’t actually take place for another two years, equities sold off in a knee-jerk fashion as investors feared the ramifications on the global economy. Due to the heavy exposure to Europe, non-U.S. developed markets suffered the most, losing nearly 10% before rebounding.
With the U.S. viewed as a safe haven, domestic equities have fared relatively well in the Brexit aftermath. The U.S. dollar appreciated following the decision while the British pound slumped to a 30 year low against the greenback. Emerging market (EM) currencies have also depreciated against the dollar however EM equities have been one of the stronger performers. This asset class has benefitted from the U.S. Federal Reserve indicating it will not make any significant interest rate movements due to the risk the Brexit poses to the economy. Only a few days after the UK vote, EM equities rallied for its biggest weekly gain since March. While the Brexit will undoubtedly have long-term ramifications, many of which are currently unclear, equity markets have rebounded from the initial sell-off.
BREXIT: The Results and What’s Next
June 2016
On June 23rd, the United Kingdom (UK) shocked markets with its vote to leave the European Union (EU). The Remain vote lost to the Leave vote, 48.1% to 51.9%, with a strong turnout throughout the UK. Younger voters sided with the Remain camp by a wide margin, while older voters supported the Leave camp (Exhibit 2). In the weeks leading up to the referendum, global equity/credit markets and the British pound experienced positive price movement in anticipation of a Remain verdict. Using polling information and odds makers as indicators, investors were caught off guard at the Brexit result, leading to dramatic losses for risk assets on June 24th.
Predicting the Brexit Vote
Today – Thursday, June 23rd – is the long awaited date of the “Brexit” vote in which the United Kingdom will choose to with draw from or remain in the European Union. In the weeks leading up to today’s referendum, many polls indicated a very slim margin between the “remain” and “leave” votes, thus creating another layer of uncertainty within the financial markets.
Today – Thursday, June 23rd – is the long-awaited date of the “Brexit” vote in which the United Kingdom will choose to withdraw from or remain in the European Union. In the weeks leading up to today’s referendum, many polls indicated a very slim margin between the “remain” and “leave” votes, thus creating another layer of uncertainty within the financial markets.
However, recent market movements indicate that investors are betting on the “remain” campaign, led by Prime Minister David Cameron. As shown in this week’s chart, the pound/dollar exchange rate (blue line) was pushed toward a five-month high earlier this week. In fact, the sterling leapt the most since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, and is already trading at levels that economists predicted it would reach after the referendum on Thursday. Additionally, European stocks reached their biggest three-day gain in almost 10 months erasing the UK’s benchmark index’s monthly decline.
Though the results of the Brexit vote will not be known until after markets close today, the above data combined with early market movements on Thursday indicate that the Brexit vote will fail and England will remain in the European Union. Should that expected result change, we can expect heightened volatility in the short term, with longer-term impacts on financial markets less clear at this point. As always, we will keep our clients abreast of market developments and potential portfolio ramifications.
UK: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
This week’s chart looks at polling information for the UK Referendum scheduled on June 23rd. On that day voters will decide whether or not to remain in the European Union.
This week’s chart looks at polling information for the UK Referendum scheduled on June 23rd. On that day voters will decide whether or not to remain in the European Union. Taking inspiration from last year’s “Grexit”, the market has appropriately named this potential event as the “Brexit.” The chart shows a Bloomberg composite indicator which takes an average of polling data from several surveys. The most recent results report 41% in favor of remaining, 40% in favor of leaving, and 19% undecided, suggesting a very close vote. The odds-makers, however, place the chance of the “Brexit” around 35%. In terms of economic consequences, it is hard to predict exactly what would happen should the “Brexit” occur, but in general, investors can expect to see a weaker pound, reduced business investment, and weaker economic growth with some spillover effects to the Eurozone. This is an event worth watching as it will likely have some influence on short-term market performance leading into the summer.
Will the Emerging Market Equity Rally Continue?
For this week’s chart of the week we take a look at the year to date return stream of emerging market equities, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets (“EM”) Index, which has been on a wild ride as oil prices fluctuated over the first three months of the year.
For this week’s chart, we look at the year-to-date return stream of emerging market equities, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets (“EM”) Index, which has been on a wild ride as oil prices fluctuated over the first three months of the year.
After reaching their 2016 low in the middle of January, emerging markets embarked on a sharp rally in the second half of February that continued through March and early April. On February 10th, due to concerns about the impact of a further rate hike on both domestic and foreign economies, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled postponement on the March rate hikes. The postponed rate hike decision coupled with continued weakness of the dollar and stabilization of commodities led to the rally starting on February 12th.
Earlier this week, China released positive upbeat news, announcing its exports rose 11.5% compared to a year earlier and surpassing analyst expectations which led to a strong April start for emerging market equities. As volatile as this first quarter of 2016 was, we frequently remind clients of the importance of having a long-term approach to investing as we have seen the EM index swing from significantly negative in January to +6.7% year to date as of April 13th. Certainly, EM investments will demonstrate elevated volatility across market cycles, but it is critical to maintain a long-term focus on their performance as it relates to total portfolio returns.
Moving Currencies
Currencies are a popular topic in investment circles today, as their impact on total returns can be meaningful for investors. While many investment funds do not hedge currency exposure at the portfolio level due to the costs involved and the expectation of mean reversion over time, certain market participants are very active in the foreign exchange markets and seek to capitalize on price movements among currencies, which can be volatile in the short-term.
Currencies are a popular topic in investment circles today, as their impact on total returns can be meaningful for investors. While many investment funds do not hedge currency exposure at the portfolio level due to the costs involved and the expectation of mean reversion over time, certain market participants are very active in the foreign exchange markets and seek to capitalize on price movements among currencies, which can be volatile in the short-term. In this Chart of the Week, we look at carry trades, the fundamental strategy of market participants who speculate on currency movements. At its essence, a carry trade is borrowing money in a low-yielding currency and investing it in a high-yielding currency. At the close of the trade, the investor pockets the difference between the interest received on the higher yielding currency and the interest paid on the lower yielding currency (net of transaction costs).
This chart shows a collection of the top- and bottom-performing carry trades of 2015 and compares their returns with the year-to-date results of 2016. As the chart shows, speculating against the dollar generated severe losses for most currencies last year, as the dollar rallied throughout 2015. Many of the carry trades that lost against the U.S. dollar have seen positive gains through early March, but can the performance of these trades persist? On one hand, holding the U.S. dollar should remain beneficial as the currency is likely to show continued, albeit modest, strength vs. other major global currencies. Reasons for this include expectations of tightening by the Fed and diverging central bank policies. Even if the Fed does not raise rates for the rest of this year, it is unlikely that it would cut rates, so the supportive case for the U.S. dollar remains. The Euro, another major global currency, is contending with monetary easing from the European Central Bank. Furthermore, concerns over Euro-area growth and political tensions present a headwind for the currency.
On the other hand, emerging market currencies have shown strength thus far in 2016, as the turnaround in industrial metals prices elevated many commodity currencies, including the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR). Concerns over long-standing debt disputes in Argentina led to increased volatility for the Argentine peso (ARS) in recent years. The 2015 election of new President Mauricio Macri led to optimism over a deal with Argentina’s creditors, and the country reached an agreement with bondholders in early March. However, the country’s plan to raise new levels of debt in April caused a sharp downturn in its currency.
With the persistence of diverging central bank policies and the prospect of negative interest rates in many parts of the world, the outlook for many carry trades will continue to see meaningful impacts from macroeconomic volatility not only on a global level, but also on a country- and region-specific level.
Note: ARS=Argentine Peso; ISK=Iceland Krona; INR=Indian Rupee; BHD=Bahraini Dinar; JPY=Japanese Yen; EUR=Euro; DKK=Danish Krone; TRY=Turkish Lira; CLP=Chilean Peso; MXN=Mexican Peso; NOK=Norwegian Krone; CAD=Canadian Dollar; MYR=Malaysian Ringgit; ZAR=South African Rand; COP=Colombian Peso; BRL=Brazilian Real.
Is Now the Time to Buy Emerging Market Equities?
March 2016
Over the last five years, emerging market (“EM”) equities have struggled to keep up with their developed market (“DM”) counterparts. Losses were extended into 2015, when this asset class lost 14.9%. Given the poor performance, it is not surprising that emerging market equities currently offer the most attractive valuations. The S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE trade at roughly 7–10% above their ten-year averages while the MSCI EM index trades 17% below. Given these valuations, when should investors expect a pick-up in performance?