After ending 2023 with a steep market rally, 2024 began on a more muted note, with Fed-pivot exuberance giving way to the details of execution. Of the many opportunities and risks facing markets this year, one of the most scrutinized will likely be how the Fed’s interest rate cuts compare to market expectations.
This newsletter analyzes current expectations for interest rate movements this year and potential scenarios that could influence the Fed’s policy decisions.
This legislative update covers proposed regulation by the Department of Labor defining “investment fiduciary,” outlines SECURE Act 2.0’s optional provision regarding student loan repayments, analyzes an increasing trend of private real estate investments within defined contribution plans, summarizes new guidance from CFA Institute defining responsible investment terminology, and reviews 2024 contribution limits from the IRS.
Late last year we authored an article detailing the growing differences between the high yield and leveraged loan markets, particularly the overall quality in the high yield market versus that of leveraged loans. Today, some of those most pronounced differences appear to be abating, which should translate to a more convergent outlook for the two markets as it relates to security, structure, recovery, covenants, and ultimately, performance. With the Fed poised to begin cutting rates in 2024, we felt it was important to address these emerging trends before the start of the new year.
This video is a recording of a live webinar held on October 26 by Marquette’s research team, featuring in-depth analysis of the third quarter and themes we’ll be monitoring for the remainder of the year.
Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.
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Watch the flash talks from Marquette’s 2023 Investment Symposium livestream on September 15 in the player below — use the upper-right list icon to access a specific presentation.
Please feel free to reach out to any of the presenters should you have any questions.
For anyone who regularly reads these letters, recall the market preview edition opined on the outlook for asset classes in 2023, particularly the likelihood of each delivering positive returns for the upcoming year. Given that we are halfway through the year, we would like to use this letter to make “halftime adjustments” to our outlook; with NFL training camps set to open later this month, we couldn’t resist the urge to borrow a football term. We hope this is a quick beach read as you enjoy your summer vacations and prepare for the second half of the year.
This edition re-assesses the outlook for fixed income, equities, and real estate for the second half of 2023.
This video is a recording of a live webinar held July 19 by Marquette’s research team, featuring live, in-depth analysis of the second quarter and themes we’ll be monitoring in the second half of the year.
Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.
Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.
For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.
Commercial real estate is increasingly being dubbed the next shoe to drop as markets assess the fallout from the regional banking turmoil. Amid higher rates and tighter credit conditions, private real estate is now facing the same repricing dynamics that hit the equity and bond markets last year, and while further write downs are expected, the headlines are likely overblown. Fundamental and financing issues are largely concentrated within the office sector — which will likely see a correction over a longer time period but be manageable for most core real estate funds — while other sectors, including industrial and multifamily, are actually set to benefit over the next few years.
This newsletter analyzes the current commercial real estate investment landscape including valuations, fundamentals, debt markets, and private real estate returns.
Read > Out of Office: Where Real Estate Markets Stand Today
On Tuesday, December 5, Nat Kellogg, CFA will be joining Nasdaq eVestment’s quarterly Institutional Trends Webcast.
Nat will be providing consultant commentary alongside Nasdaq eVestment’s Russ Elliott, Head of Asset Management, Market Intelligence, and Michele Shauf, Head of Client Experience Strategy, Investment Intelligence. The webcast briefs traditional managers on the state of the global institutional market using eVestment data, covering:
For more information and to watch the replay, visit the event webpage.
In February of this year, Marquette published a Perspectives piece entitled Is the Sky Falling? that detailed the history of the United States debt ceiling, as well as the early innings of negotiations surrounding its possible increase or suspension given the fact that the $31.4 trillion limit was reached on January 19. In the months since, the Treasury Department has been forced to resort to “extraordinary measures” in order to prevent the U.S. from defaulting on its obligations, including suspending sales of state and local government series Treasury securities. Those measures, however, will likely be exhausted in the very near future according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (perhaps as early as June), at which point the federal government will ultimately be unable to pay its obligations fully and, as a result, have to delay making payments for some activities and/or default on its debt obligations. This is commonly referred to as the x-date. It is worth pointing out that a number of large Wall Street firms have brought their forecasts of this date forward in recent days.
This newsletter analyzes potential repercussions of a U.S. default and options for a resolution of the debt limit impasse in Congress.
Read > Down to the Wire: An Update on the 2023 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis
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