Commodities Archives — Page 7 of 9

The Implications of a Stronger Dollar on Emerging Market Investments

In 2015, the emerging market equity index declined 14.9%. While there are a variety of explanations for this, one can not underestimate the impact of a stronger dollar. In fact, currency losses were responsible for more than 60% of the decline for U.S.-based investors. This week’s chart of the week examines the mechanics of how a stronger dollar can drive losses for emerging market investments.

Typically when U.S. interest rates rise, the dollar strengthens relative to foreign currencies. Investors oftentimes onshore investments during rising rate periods, and as a result, the country as a whole “exports” less dollars. The commodity price declines — especially oil — have been a major contributor to the rise in the U.S. dollar as the U.S. exports fewer dollars per unit. In our chart, we use the quantity of oil imported multiplied by its price as a proxy for the amount of dollars exported each month. During 2014, the United States imported an average of $26 billion a month in oil. During the first ten months of 2015, the U.S. imported an average of $14 billion a month, clearly a large drop and in conjunction with dollar strengthening and emerging market equity declines.

So why do emerging market investments fall? Emerging market economies often depend on dollar-denominated revenues to service debts as well as manage interest rates and exchange rates. If emerging market countries are receiving less dollars from the U.S., they face increased pressures from higher borrowing costs and lower dollar-denominated revenues. In addition, with less revenue, it is more difficult to promote internal growth via exchange rates or interest rate policies. Unfortunately, as U.S. interest rates are poised to rise further in 2016, emerging markets are likely to experience heightened volatility as a result.

What Happened to High Yield?

The recent sell-off in the U.S. High Yield market has caused concern among investors and many worry that the situation will worsen before improving; this is especially concerning because of its effects on portfolio values before calendar year-end. The Credit Suisse High Yield Index returned -1.08% on Friday December 11th and recorded another down day when the markets reopened on Monday with a return of -1.39%.

The recent sell-off in the U.S. high yield market has caused concern among investors and many worry that the situation will worsen before improving; this is especially concerning because of its effects on portfolio values before calendar year-end. The Credit Suisse High Yield Index returned -1.08% on Friday, December 11th and recorded another down day when the markets reopened on Monday with a return of -1.39%. Through December 14th, high yield has dropped 4.15% for the month and 6.11% for the year. As of December 14th, the yield for the index is 9.42% and the spread is 774bp.

The declines reflect liquidity concerns in the high yield market after the closure of a junk-bond mutual fund. Many investors took advantage of low bond prices after the financial crisis, betting that the U.S. economy would recover. While that thesis proved to be a profitable one, there has been a gradual change in sentiment, with significant outflows in high yield mutual funds over the last three years, including $10.5 billion this year. So what is driving this liquidity concern and subsequent sell-off?

Many would argue that the prolonged period of low oil and other commodity prices are the primary drivers of the sell-off, and are expected to drive default rates higher for the energy portion of the high yield index. As shown in the chart above, energy and metals/minerals constitute roughly 18% of the index. With commodity prices struggling and OPEC not willing to slow production in oil, the fear is that the underlying prices will continue to fall. A further fall in prices — particularly in the energy and metals/minerals industries — will lead to greater revenue losses and a higher likelihood of defaults. Although default rates for the other sectors of the index are expected to remain close to their long-term averages, high yield funds with a significant overweight to the energy and metals/minerals sectors may suffer above average losses over the coming year.

Making Sense of Oil and Energy Prices

2015 Investment Symposium flash talk session

Flash talk by Olu Rosanwo, CAIA, at Marquette’s 2015 Investment Symposium on making sense of oil and energy prices.

CAPEX Cuts Continue in the Energy Industry

As oil prices oscillate around $40, market participants continue to wonder how long these low prices will persist. The decline in oil prices, due in part to strong supply growth and lower-than-expected demand growth, has caused headaches for many in the energy industry. Energy companies have made cuts to their CAPEX (capital expenditure) levels and canceled future expansions to reduce spending and maintain low costs. This week’s chart examines the Baker Hughes United States Crude Oil Rotary Rig Counts. Rotary rig counts are often included as an input when analyzing future oil prices — the logic is that a decline in rig counts foreshadows a reduction in supply, and a rise in rig counts precipitates an increase in supply.

Since peaking in October 2014, rig counts have fallen by 60% to the lowest level in over five years. Rig counts saw 29 consecutive weeks of decline between December 2014 and June 2015. The rig counts appeared to consolidate and even ticked up after that 29-week period, with 54 rigs joining the count over a period of 8 positive weeks. This led many investors and market participants to project a continuation of downward pressure on oil prices due to the expected additional supply as a result of the added rigs. However, CAPEX cuts continue in the energy industry, as 42 rigs have come offline since the end of June (with the majority coming offline in September), almost completely reversing the effects of the increase seen in July and August. For investors and market participants, the data suggests that a bottom is forming in the rig counts and energy companies may be nearing the end of their CAPEX cuts. Whether or not this translates into an increase in oil prices remains to be seen.

Has the Drop in Oil Prices Been a Drag on the U.S. Economy?

Over the past few quarters there has been much discussion about how the recent plunge in oil prices would impact the U.S. economy. While there were expectations of both positive and negative effects associated with lower oil prices, the general consensus amongst economists was that this would have a net positive impact on the U.S. economy.

Over the past few quarters, there has been much discussion about how the recent plunge in oil prices would impact the U.S. economy. While there were expectations of both positive and negative effects associated with lower oil prices, the general consensus amongst economists was that this would have a net positive impact on the U.S. economy. Cuts in capital expenditures from U.S. oil producers (which have been a significant contributor to GDP growth for the past several years) were expected to be a drag on economic growth. At the same time, lower energy costs for consumers were expected to result in increased disposable income and thus increased consumer spending, which would boost economic growth. Given that the U.S. is a net importer of oil, the benefit to consumers was expected to more than offset the decrease in capital spending from producers, resulting in a net positive impact.

Since low oil prices have persisted for several months now, we are starting to get an indication of the impact on the economy, and at this point it does not appear to be nearly as positive as expected. It appears as if the economic drag from decreased capital expenditures from oil producers has been greater than the benefit from lower oil prices. While the drop in capital expenditures from oil producers has more or less been in line with expectations, the increase in disposable income has not translated to the increase in consumer spending that was anticipated. Consumers appear to be saving, rather than spending, this increased disposable income. As the chart illustrates, from June 2014, when oil peaked at approximately $115 per barrel, to February 2015 (the most recent date data is available for), annualized household spending on energy has decreased from approximately $645 billion to approximately $533 billion, representing a decrease of approximately $112 billion. Over the same time frame, annualized household saving has increased from approximately $658 billion to $768 billion, an increase of approximately $110 billion.

Thus far, the negative consequences from lower oil prices (reduced capital spending and job cuts from the energy sector) have been a drag on the U.S. economy, while the benefits from lower oil prices (increased consumer spending) have not yet had the positive impact that was expected. This phenomenon may help to explain some of the disappointing economic data observed during the first quarter. Consumers are often slow to adjust spending habits, and that may well be the case here, meaning that consumer spending will likely be one of the most influential economic data points in the coming months.

Has Oil Been Oversold?

Between June 2014 and the end of January 2015, oil experienced a precipitous fall from $107 per barrel to $45 as reduced demand and excessive supply combined to drive its price significantly lower. During that time, the Credit Suisse High Yield benchmark experienced a -3% total return, as 15% of the index is comprised of energy issuers. In February, oil recovered to $52 and the high yield benchmark rebounded by 3%. Given the wide dispersion of projected oil prices, we attempt to gauge how fairly priced both oil and high yield energy bonds currently are, based on the Baker Hughes North America Rotary Rig Count.

Between June 2014 and the end of January 2015, oil experienced a precipitous fall from $107¹ per barrel to $45 as reduced demand and excessive supply combined to drive its price significantly lower. During that time, the Credit Suisse High Yield benchmark experienced a -3% total return, as 15% of the index is comprised of energy issuers. In February, oil recovered to $52 and the high yield benchmark rebounded by 3%. Given the wide dispersion of projected oil prices, we attempt to gauge how fairly priced both oil and high yield energy bonds currently are, based on the Baker Hughes North America Rotary Rig Count.

The Baker Hughes North America Rotary Rig Count is an important business barometer for the oil and gas industry because it tracks active oil drilling rigs and serves as a leading indicator for the demand for oil and gas products and services. The rig count nosedived from 1,931 at the end of September 2014 to 1,267 at the end of February 2015, a period of just five months.

This week’s chart divides the price of oil by the rig count. By doing this, we can see how overpriced or underpriced oil is in the context of active rigs. The blue line shows that oil was generally overpriced over the last six years and is now somewhat cheaply priced as it falls below its average shown by the dotted blue line; the significant reduction in rig count has helped to improve this ratio. The green line shows the spread of energy bonds in the Credit Suisse High Yield benchmark divided by the same rig count. It currently sits above its average, suggesting that perhaps energy high yield bonds have been oversold, and may offer a buying opportunity for value-driven investors.

¹As measured by West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark for oil prices in the United States.

2015 Market Preview

January 2015

Similar to previous years, we offer our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2015 is no different: U.S. equities are at all-time highs, uncertainty reigns for international equities, and to everyone’s surprise, interest rates fell dramatically in 2014…but are poised to rise from historic lows over the next year. In the alternative space, real estate remains a solid contributor to portfolio returns, and private equity delivered on return expectations, though dry powder is on the rise. Hedge fund results were mixed, but have shown to add value in past rising interest rate environments. Further macroeconomic items that bear watching for their potential impact on capital markets include the precipitous fall in oil prices, the strengthening U.S. dollar, job growth, and international conflicts.

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Economic Impact of Falling Oil Prices

The economic impact of falling oil prices has been a common discussion point for investors over the past few months. Who benefits? Who doesn’t? In this week’s Chart of the Week, we look at what different oil prices mean to various parties.

Oil prices fell by more than 40% in 2014 as a result of strong production and OPEC’s refusal to support prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, began the year at $110, which is significantly less than the level necessary for certain countries like Venezuela and Iran to balance their budgets. Earlier this week, Brent crude fell to less than $47. According to the Financial Times, an oil price of $90 is necessary for Saudi Arabia to balance its budget, while Kuwait would be happy with levels above $50. In the U.S., the outlook for operators of shale oil developments will be heavily dependent on their cost structures — an oil price of $115 is needed for high-cost producers to break even, but low-cost producers can break even with prices as low as $40. A major beneficiary of the slippery slope in oil prices is the airline industry. With oil at the level of $95, they would see a boost to 2015 operating profits of approximately $15 billion.

The takeaway is that the economic impact of the slide in oil prices is not the same for all market participants. As such, this environment presents interesting tactical opportunities for domestic and international investors with exposures to governments and corporations.

Lower Oil Prices a Tailwind for Airline Stocks

Our chart of the week examines how the fall in the price of oil – despite its recent impact on the overall stock market – has benefitted the airline industry and should continue to do so in the near future.

The chart shows how oil prices have steadily declined since June to roughly $56/barrel as of December 16th. Over the same period, U.S. equities — as represented by the S&P 500 — have marched higher, led by stronger than expected earnings and an increasingly favorable jobs market. Given the drop in oil prices, it may not be entirely surprising that airline stocks as a group have been one of the strongest performers in 2014, gaining 34% so far this year. Since one of the largest expenses for any airline is fuel, the recent decline in prices coupled with both the large volume of travelers in the fourth quarter and rise in airline ticket prices should translate to one of the most profitable quarters for a sector already flying high. The nosedive in oil prices may not be the best news for the overall market (seen at the very end of the graph) but should bode well for airlines and the managers who choose to invest in this soaring sector.

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