Topic Tags: U.S. Equity

The Running of the Bulls

Barring a significant equity market drawdown in the coming weeks, the current bull market will turn three years old in October. The gains posted by the S&P 500 Index during this time have certainly been robust, with the benchmark delivering 24% and 36% returns in the first and second 12-month periods of the current bull market, respectively. This strong performance has led many investors to question if stocks will continue to deliver in the near future. Interestingly, bull markets in decades past have seen positive stock returns well into the third, fourth, and fifth years; however, these gains tend to be more muted than those notched in the first two years. Over the last 50 years, the pattern has often been the following:

  • Year one: Explosive gains are recorded as markets rebound from oversold conditions. The average return of the S&P 500 Index in the year after a bear market trough is roughly 37%.
  • Year two: Equity returns are still strong but less extreme, with the S&P 500 Index averaging a return of 17%. Earnings growth and investor confidence begin to stabilize.
  • Years three–five: Equity momentum slows. Average returns compress to 8%–13% and markets become more vulnerable to corrections.

To expand on the final bullet point, the third, fourth, and fifth years of a bull market often prove shakier given the convergence of several structural factors. For instance, early in the cycle, central banks and governments typically provide aggressive stimulus to allow markets to recover from troughs; however, inflation and financial stability risks typically arise within a few years. These factors usually prompt tightening from policymakers, which can constrain equity performance. At the same time, the sharp rebound in corporate profits that characterizes the first two years begins to normalize, making year-over-year comparisons less favorable. Valuations, which tend to increase in the early innings of a bull market as confidence returns, also usually peak around year three. This causes any future stock gains to be more dependent on genuine fundamental improvements (i.e., earnings growth) rather than continued multiple expansion. Finally, after two years of strong performance, investor sentiment often shifts from optimism to caution, with growing fears that current conditions may not persist. While it is impossible to predict the trajectory of equity markets from here, it may be prudent for investors to expect more muted gains from stocks in the years ahead simply based on historical patterns.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Markets

Over the last several decades, artificial intelligence (“AI”) has evolved from a theoretical concept into a transformative force across a variety of industries. The 1940s saw the advent of the digital computer, which was followed years later by the first artificial neural network, a computational model inspired by the structure of the human brain that consists of algorithms that attempt to recognize relationships in data. In more recent years, researchers have developed “deep learning” systems (i.e., neural networks with many layers) capable of increasingly complex tasks including image recognition, reading comprehension, and predictive reasoning. Given the advances in the space, it should not come as a surprise that the use cases of artificial intelligence are now vast, with AI tools now implemented across fields including health care, retail, finance, and entertainment. Researchers and corporate executives are not the only ones to have noticed the remarkable potential of AI, however, as investors have flocked to the space in droves over the last several years.

This newsletter outlines the growth of AI as an investment theme, including performance, valuations, and earnings growth of AI-related companies and equities, other segments of the market that may stand to benefit from advances in AI, and potential risks for investors.

3 vs. 2000

In last year’s “2 vs. 2000” Chart of the Week publication, we explored the emergence of trillion-dollar companies, noting that Microsoft and Apple had each exceeded the combined market capitalization of Russell 2000 Index constituents. Since then, another technology giant has crossed that threshold, with NVIDIA recently becoming the first company to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion. While Microsoft currently hovers around this level thanks to robust earnings and demand for its cloud and enterprise solutions, Apple has experienced more turmoil in recent time. In the first three months of this year, Apple shed nearly $1.5 trillion from its market capitalization amid trade tensions and concerns about slowing growth. During this bout of volatility, the company briefly became smaller than the U.S. small-cap equity universe, but a rally sparked by its announcement to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. helped Apple regain its footing and once again surpass the Russell 2000 Index in terms of market capitalization.

The meteoric rise of Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA underscores ongoing investor preferences for large-cap, technology-focused companies. In contrast, the U.S. small-cap space, which is more tilted toward businesses in sectors like Financials and Industrials, has struggled in recent years for this same reason. The Russell 2000 Index has also been negatively impacted by the realization of smaller company growth within private markets, as outlined in a recent newsletter. Going forward, investors should be cognizant of the risks posed by both large and small companies and remain adequately diversified across the market capitalization spectrum.

Non-U.S. Stocks: Currency Leads, Earnings Lag

There was a striking reversal in equity performance trends during the first half of 2025, with non-U.S. stocks outperforming their U.S. peers by a significant margin. Specifically, the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. and Russell 3000 indices returned 17.9% and 5.8%, respectively, on a year-to-date basis through June 30. While it is unclear whether this shift is a temporary phenomenon or the unraveling of a multidecade pattern, a deeper exploration of year-to-date returns for various equity benchmarks may provide some answers. Notably, currency movements, particularly the weakening of the U.S. dollar, have played an outsized role in the returns of non-U.S. stocks this year, adding 14% and 9% to the total year-to-date returns of the MSCI Europe ex-UK and MSCI Japan indices, respectively. Multiple factors have contributed to this bout of dollar weakness, including uncertainty regarding tariffs, concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, and a growing global interest in diversifying into non-U.S. assets. European and Asian equities have benefitted from these dynamics, with both regions experiencing strong capital flows in the first half of the year. This helps explain the second-largest return driver for international equities in 2025: multiple expansion. Indeed, improving investor sentiment and capital inflows have recently propelled international equity valuations above their long-term averages. Pledges for increased defense spending and infrastructure development in Europe (as described in a recent Chart of the Week) are especially stoking enthusiasm among investors, with fiscal stimulus measures and rate cuts serving as additional sentiment tailwinds.

While the factors detailed above warrant excitement about non-U.S. equities, it is prudent to address the risks facing the asset class as well. To that point, a third takeaway from the return decomposition detailed above is what is nearly absent from the total return of Europe and Japan: meaningful earnings growth. While certain sectors of the non-U.S. market, such as Financials and Information Technology, have strong growth projections, broad earnings expectations are mixed, with European companies expected to report a 0.3% drop in earnings for the second quarter. In conclusion, there is certainly a case for optimism related to the prospects of non-U.S. stocks going forward, but it is important to underscore the importance of earnings growth as the key driver of long-term returns.

Looking Across the Capital Stack

Despite allocations to various segments of corporate capital structures, most balanced portfolios have a degree of overlap when it comes to sector exposure across equities and fixed income. Still, key differences across the sector exposures of the U.S. equity and corporate bond markets are worth detailing. The extent to which the S&P 500 Index, which serves as a representation of the domestic large-cap stock market, is exposed to the Information Technology space has been described at length, with that sector comprising roughly one-third of the benchmark. This reflects the growth-oriented nature of the equity landscape, which Information Technology and similar sectors (e.g., Communication Services) have dominated due to higher earnings growth and extremely positive sentiment. In contrast, the Bloomberg Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index maintains a 34% weight to the Financials sector, with relatively balanced exposure to spaces like Health Care (11%), Utilities (10%), and Communication Services (7%). This dynamic reflects the capital-intensive nature of these sectors, which are comprised of companies that tend to issue more debt and are considered safer from a credit perspective. Finally, the Bloomberg High Yield Corporate Bond Index is most exposed to the Consumer Discretionary (23%) and Communication Services (15%) spaces, which are more sensitive to economic cycles and, thus, typically offer higher yields to compensate for higher risk.

The varied sector exposures for these indices are reflected in historical return correlation data. On a since-inception basis, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited correlations of 0.40 and 0.63 with the Investment Grade Corporate Bond and High Yield Corporate Bond indices, respectively. These figures suggest that while equities and bonds can move together at times, the asset classes often behave differently. Importantly, these correlations are not static. Rather, they tend to rise during periods of market stress when asset classes often move in tandem due to broad risk-off sentiment. Under normal market conditions, however, the differences in the sector compositions of these indices allow for diversification benefits in a balanced portfolio.

By combining equities with both investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, investors gain exposure to a broader mix of U.S. businesses across sectors and asset classes. This dynamic can help market participants mitigate the impact of sector-specific downturns, making a balanced portfolio more resilient in varying economic environments.

2025 Halftime Market Insights

This video is a recording of a live webinar held July 17 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first half of the year across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring through the rest of 2025.

 

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst
Catherine Hillier, Senior Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Amy Miller, Associate Director of Private Equity
Chad Sheaffer, CFA, CAIA Senior Research Analyst

Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.

If you have any questions, please send our team an email.

Policy Uncertainty Blurs the Outlook

As we enter the second half of the year, Liberation Day-induced market volatility seems like a distant memory with the S&P hitting another all-time high on July 10th and non-U.S. stocks significantly outpacing their U.S. counterparts through June 30th. Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law by President Trump on July 4th with varying expectations on its impact to growth but a consensus view that it will push the deficit higher.

In this edition:

  • Tariff and policy uncertainty
  • Risk factors and market indicators
  • Equity market drivers
  • Currency and regional trends
  • What to watch in the second half

Why Are Emerging Markets Investors Removing Their China Exposure?

Emerging markets (EM) equities have gone through cycles of performance throughout time, creating varied investor sentiment towards the asset class. Recently, discussions around excluding China from investment portfolios have become more common, spurring the growth of active EM ex-China strategies. This newsletter explores the current landscape of EM investing, examines the drivers of the EM ex-China trend, and analyzes the performance impact of removing China from an EM allocation.

Oil Pares Gains After U.S. Strikes Iran

Last week, Marquette released a publication detailing the importance of the Strait of Hormuz within the context of the global oil trade given recent tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, these tensions escalated materially, with the United States carrying out a bombing campaign against multiple nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran. In response, Iranian officials launched a missile attack on a U.S. military installation in Qatar and have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a measure that would need to be ratified by the country’s parliament and national security council. Experts agree that such an undertaking would be highly problematic for the global economy and China in particular, which accounts for roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports (around 1.6 million barrels per day). Goldman Sachs estimates that a closure of the strait could push the price of oil to more than $100 per barrel.

Interestingly, despite these developments, oil prices have not moved significantly higher in recent time. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, did climb above $81 per barrel immediately after the U.S. strikes, but has since dropped back to around $72 per barrel as of this writing. Interestingly, most of this decline occurred after the missile attack on the U.S. airbase in Qatar, which may have led investors to believe that oil flows will not be the primary target of the Iranian military going forward. The current figure of $72 per barrel, while still above the five-year average level for Brent crude oil, is largely in line with where the commodity has traded since 2021. Equity markets do not seem particularly phased by this weekend’s strikes either, with major global stock indices finishing Monday in positive territory. These positive dynamics amid a string of negative headlines likely stem from the fact that the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be officially closed, although analysts have reported a slowdown in shipping navigation through the strait since the U.S. strikes. Clearly, much uncertainty remains related to the situation in the Middle East, and asset prices could see increased volatility in the near term depending on the next moves by any of the countries involved.

What Has Private Equity Done to Small-Cap Stocks?

Private markets have grown exponentially over the last two decades, driven by attractive long-term returns, diversification benefits, and early-stage value creation. As companies stay private longer, much of their initial growth can be realized outside of public markets, which could challenge the small-cap premium and contribute to a shift in the composition of public markets. The following newsletter examines this dynamic and potential impact on small-cap stocks.